Super impressive performance by the Alouettes, though I am not sold on Vernon Adams yet...he could have been picked off quite a few times versus the Redblacks. Their new middle linebacker and safety have solidified their team. Their new defensive coordinator is top notch. Their play calling, which was so terrible for at least two years, now looks very good.
Possibly the Redblacks will suffer from the championship loser syndrome this year, as they look like a bottom 3 team, along with the Lions and Argos.
Arbuckle for the Stamps looked looked good, obviously their special teams blew the cover and the game for them...and the Argos special teams also were terrible.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
17-14 ATS season to date, 2-5 ATS last week.
Horrendous week, we move on.
Stamps -14 Argos 49
Bombers . -11 Redblacks 52
Alouettes pik Eskimos 55
Roughriders -10 Lions 49
Super impressive performance by the Alouettes, though I am not sold on Vernon Adams yet...he could have been picked off quite a few times versus the Redblacks. Their new middle linebacker and safety have solidified their team. Their new defensive coordinator is top notch. Their play calling, which was so terrible for at least two years, now looks very good.
Possibly the Redblacks will suffer from the championship loser syndrome this year, as they look like a bottom 3 team, along with the Lions and Argos.
Arbuckle for the Stamps looked looked good, obviously their special teams blew the cover and the game for them...and the Argos special teams also were terrible.
Typically teams play well the week after they "shoulda, coulda, woulda won"
Teams falling into that category this week are Calgary and the Riders. Obviously the Riders got smoked last time out, but they were in a very good situation.
It may awhile for the Lions to have bettable lines as the public is enamored with Riley who's been a good CFL quarterback...unfortunately for him, he's got no support this year and any team with a good defensive line is gonna terrorize him.
We'll follow how Stanbeck, the running back for Montreal is this coming week. They've been bad for so long, that again, it may take awhile for the bookmakers to adjust. The line in the Alouette/Eskimo game will be the most intriguing of all of the CFL lines. The Eskimos have looked awfully good this year and the linemaker could make this anywhere from -4 to +4.
Teams off an away dog win when the line was >6 have been 6-2 ATS...Alouettes
Typically teams play well the week after they "shoulda, coulda, woulda won"
Teams falling into that category this week are Calgary and the Riders. Obviously the Riders got smoked last time out, but they were in a very good situation.
It may awhile for the Lions to have bettable lines as the public is enamored with Riley who's been a good CFL quarterback...unfortunately for him, he's got no support this year and any team with a good defensive line is gonna terrorize him.
We'll follow how Stanbeck, the running back for Montreal is this coming week. They've been bad for so long, that again, it may take awhile for the bookmakers to adjust. The line in the Alouette/Eskimo game will be the most intriguing of all of the CFL lines. The Eskimos have looked awfully good this year and the linemaker could make this anywhere from -4 to +4.
Teams off an away dog win when the line was >6 have been 6-2 ATS...Alouettes
This query was 0-2 last year. Maybe it is "due" for an ATS win, but since it is hitting over 72% (Kryptonite for me), I would not bet more than one unit.
Including +5.5 and +6:
p:WAD and line > 5.2 and playoffs = 0
ATS: 16-5-1 (5.30, 76.2%)
This query was 0-2 last year. Maybe it is "due" for an ATS win, but since it is hitting over 72% (Kryptonite for me), I would not bet more than one unit.
It is looking likely that the days of receiving CFL lines from the bookmakers on Mondays will be a thing of the past. Those lines that are put out late signify that the bookies are at least leery, and more probably getting beat. It is similar with the WNBA that are sometimes put out a couple hours before the game.
I've contemplated their strategy...why not delete those games altogether? Perhaps they don't want to admit defeat, or possibly in the past they did win, but so so far this season have lost. As the public has gotten educated, the use of quant mathematics using computers,, bettors computational and situational skills have gotten better, and they are possibly now enough smart people in the game defeating the bookies to make the games they offer not profitable.
The house has a small advantage in sports betting, as it does with blackjack...however there were punters that came up with a card counting system in blackjack that when the deck was overloaded with aces, that the punter increased his bets to take advantage of the increased likelihood of getting blackjack so that for small instances of time the casinos were at an actual disadvantage. There were blackjack teams that went into casinos for a 10 year time span and cleaned up. All of that process has been documented in a few books, and largely had its heyday in the 1980s-1990s. If one staggers their bets in blackjack at a casino now, you are very likely to get tossed out and asked not to come back...perhaps they are British casino owners that now run sportsbooks...haha.
I would say another reason they are waiting, is that bettors bet, and bookmakers don't offer CFL or WNBA games right away, that leaves bettors with the inclination to bet other more profitable sports for bookies like baseball, ice hockey and other pro footballs. If that is fact a consideration, it is a brilliant strategy. No one ever said that bookmakers were not savvy and given the chance to take advantage of punters' weaknesses of needing action, they will take that advantage EVERY TIME.
From a punter's view, it's aggravating, because bookies are millionaires as long as they don't do something stupid like betting themselves. In the early 2000s there was a offshore bookie called Aces Gold, that was similar to Pinnacle...they offered no-limit betting, and on Fridays of the NFL season they offered no vig betting, which was like a "too good to be true" scenario...you were getting -100 to win a hundred. It was an indictment on the public that he could offer those types of lines and still be profitable. Pinnacle says basically the same thing...."we are going to offer you -105/-106 on almost everything and we'll let you win as much as you like, and we know from experience that there will be more losers than winners".
It's brilliant.
It is looking likely that the days of receiving CFL lines from the bookmakers on Mondays will be a thing of the past. Those lines that are put out late signify that the bookies are at least leery, and more probably getting beat. It is similar with the WNBA that are sometimes put out a couple hours before the game.
I've contemplated their strategy...why not delete those games altogether? Perhaps they don't want to admit defeat, or possibly in the past they did win, but so so far this season have lost. As the public has gotten educated, the use of quant mathematics using computers,, bettors computational and situational skills have gotten better, and they are possibly now enough smart people in the game defeating the bookies to make the games they offer not profitable.
The house has a small advantage in sports betting, as it does with blackjack...however there were punters that came up with a card counting system in blackjack that when the deck was overloaded with aces, that the punter increased his bets to take advantage of the increased likelihood of getting blackjack so that for small instances of time the casinos were at an actual disadvantage. There were blackjack teams that went into casinos for a 10 year time span and cleaned up. All of that process has been documented in a few books, and largely had its heyday in the 1980s-1990s. If one staggers their bets in blackjack at a casino now, you are very likely to get tossed out and asked not to come back...perhaps they are British casino owners that now run sportsbooks...haha.
I would say another reason they are waiting, is that bettors bet, and bookmakers don't offer CFL or WNBA games right away, that leaves bettors with the inclination to bet other more profitable sports for bookies like baseball, ice hockey and other pro footballs. If that is fact a consideration, it is a brilliant strategy. No one ever said that bookmakers were not savvy and given the chance to take advantage of punters' weaknesses of needing action, they will take that advantage EVERY TIME.
From a punter's view, it's aggravating, because bookies are millionaires as long as they don't do something stupid like betting themselves. In the early 2000s there was a offshore bookie called Aces Gold, that was similar to Pinnacle...they offered no-limit betting, and on Fridays of the NFL season they offered no vig betting, which was like a "too good to be true" scenario...you were getting -100 to win a hundred. It was an indictment on the public that he could offer those types of lines and still be profitable. Pinnacle says basically the same thing...."we are going to offer you -105/-106 on almost everything and we'll let you win as much as you like, and we know from experience that there will be more losers than winners".
They have the smartest bettors in the world punting at pinnacle, and yet they haven't changed in >20 years, and they are the biggest bookmaker in the world to my knowledge. If that was a poor business model, pinnacle would be long gone. It is not so different from Walmart in the USA, where you know you're going to get the best deal and so what if you want to buy 100 packages of toilet paper? They will say, "No worries, but perhaps you should get that bowel problem checked."...haha.
Yet, there aren't many other bookies that are modeling their success, which is soooo strange to me. The pinnacle model is the antithesis to the British model of outlawing/limiting winners and taking no risk whatsoever. That strategy is the "no balls" bookmaking model, which I would say 90% of bookmakers utilize. Well, "nothing ventured, nothing gained Buddy". Those types are the ones that need to market, because smart punters that may win some of the time, flee from them to go to customer friendly pinnacle type books. And by customer friendly, obviously I don't mean they are really nice to talk to (which most aren't anyway), I mean they are offering punters fair lines, they know that in some cases the player will win and don't sweat it, because they know they have a house advantage and 96% of punters lose...."why worry about the 4%?"
Aces Gold by the way, went broke when offering vig free Super Bowl betting when the Rams played the Patriots (the infamous time when Belichek had spies watch the Rams pre-Super Bowl practices and stole some of their play signals). The head guy made the Pats +14.5 point dogs when the consensus line was 14. Every punter that wanted the Patriots bet on them at Aces Gold and Mr. Big had several million dollars exposure on the Patriots...in other words, he was punting himself on the Rams.
The rest is history, as the Patriots won 20-17 and the Aces Gold head guy disappeared, never to be heard from again. Perhaps he ended up wearing concrete shoes at the botoom of a body of water, courtesy of some irate bettors who didn't get paid on their winning Patriots' bets.
They have the smartest bettors in the world punting at pinnacle, and yet they haven't changed in >20 years, and they are the biggest bookmaker in the world to my knowledge. If that was a poor business model, pinnacle would be long gone. It is not so different from Walmart in the USA, where you know you're going to get the best deal and so what if you want to buy 100 packages of toilet paper? They will say, "No worries, but perhaps you should get that bowel problem checked."...haha.
Yet, there aren't many other bookies that are modeling their success, which is soooo strange to me. The pinnacle model is the antithesis to the British model of outlawing/limiting winners and taking no risk whatsoever. That strategy is the "no balls" bookmaking model, which I would say 90% of bookmakers utilize. Well, "nothing ventured, nothing gained Buddy". Those types are the ones that need to market, because smart punters that may win some of the time, flee from them to go to customer friendly pinnacle type books. And by customer friendly, obviously I don't mean they are really nice to talk to (which most aren't anyway), I mean they are offering punters fair lines, they know that in some cases the player will win and don't sweat it, because they know they have a house advantage and 96% of punters lose...."why worry about the 4%?"
Aces Gold by the way, went broke when offering vig free Super Bowl betting when the Rams played the Patriots (the infamous time when Belichek had spies watch the Rams pre-Super Bowl practices and stole some of their play signals). The head guy made the Pats +14.5 point dogs when the consensus line was 14. Every punter that wanted the Patriots bet on them at Aces Gold and Mr. Big had several million dollars exposure on the Patriots...in other words, he was punting himself on the Rams.
The rest is history, as the Patriots won 20-17 and the Aces Gold head guy disappeared, never to be heard from again. Perhaps he ended up wearing concrete shoes at the botoom of a body of water, courtesy of some irate bettors who didn't get paid on their winning Patriots' bets.
I would say that the difference in Pinnacle and the British bookies is this.....Pinnacle doesn't care about profit margin, but cares about volume. If they can bring in 10 billion dollars every year and make a profit of 4-5%, that is 500 million dollars of profit.
The British books have to be more concerned with margin or profit percentage. They would want maybe a 7-8% margin, but they would lose customers and lose volume by doing so. They would take in much, much less money but have a higher profit percentage. Ultimately they would have much less profit than the pinnacles of the world, because they would have a small percentage of a total betting population than pinnacle....it's a flawed strategy, but hey they're millionaires, just not multi-millionaires.
It is similar to Walmart who now is one of the biggest, most profitable companies in the world...we are going to sell 100 million toothbrushes with a 10% profit per item sold, and if you want to sell 100 toothbrushes at 50% mark-up, "be my guest".
I would say that the difference in Pinnacle and the British bookies is this.....Pinnacle doesn't care about profit margin, but cares about volume. If they can bring in 10 billion dollars every year and make a profit of 4-5%, that is 500 million dollars of profit.
The British books have to be more concerned with margin or profit percentage. They would want maybe a 7-8% margin, but they would lose customers and lose volume by doing so. They would take in much, much less money but have a higher profit percentage. Ultimately they would have much less profit than the pinnacles of the world, because they would have a small percentage of a total betting population than pinnacle....it's a flawed strategy, but hey they're millionaires, just not multi-millionaires.
It is similar to Walmart who now is one of the biggest, most profitable companies in the world...we are going to sell 100 million toothbrushes with a 10% profit per item sold, and if you want to sell 100 toothbrushes at 50% mark-up, "be my guest".
I'm wondering if any of it has to do the a lot of the states in the USA now let you bet online and now you got line makers everywhere , but the one's that have been around should still have there line's out like before , or are line makers coming to the US.
I'm wondering if any of it has to do the a lot of the states in the USA now let you bet online and now you got line makers everywhere , but the one's that have been around should still have there line's out like before , or are line makers coming to the US.
MLs not up yet & i expect they'll be posted soon, with 1H & 1Q sides & totals to follow as well as also TT's (for 1Q, 1H & G), with varying limit maximums per bet.
Betting limits/CAD:
ATS: $3,911
ML: $2607.4
Totals: $2607.4
MLs not up yet & i expect they'll be posted soon, with 1H & 1Q sides & totals to follow as well as also TT's (for 1Q, 1H & G), with varying limit maximums per bet.
Bookmakers have put out CFL lines, perhaps the head guy got back from a drunken whoring vacation. They are a bit crazy this week. Mine in brackets.
Stamps -11.5 (-14) Argos 52.5 ( 49)
Bombers . -10 (-11) Redblacks 55' (52)
Alouettes +5 (pik) Eskimos 54 (55)
Roughriders -3' (-10) Lions 51 (49)
These lines and mine have the biggest differences probably in the four years I've been doing this. Contrary to my tone in this thread, I respect the linemaker's ability and we have to think, "what is the linemaker trying to do here?"
My initial feeling is he is just totally off in the Riders game and is relying on Mike Reilly to work some magic in the entire Lions team since their last game. The Lions look like a dysfunctional poorly coached team and the Riders have a tough venue to play in and just got embarrassed at home their last game, fundamentally and motivationally, the Riders have a HUGE advantage, they should kill the Lions,
The Als the bookmaker has not caught to the fact that they now are in the middle of the pack in the CFL hierarchy, as are the Eskimos...there's a 5 point difference in the bookmaker and my lines...usually, but not always that has lead to success when playing the team that my power rating has said to take.
Bookmakers have put out CFL lines, perhaps the head guy got back from a drunken whoring vacation. They are a bit crazy this week. Mine in brackets.
Stamps -11.5 (-14) Argos 52.5 ( 49)
Bombers . -10 (-11) Redblacks 55' (52)
Alouettes +5 (pik) Eskimos 54 (55)
Roughriders -3' (-10) Lions 51 (49)
These lines and mine have the biggest differences probably in the four years I've been doing this. Contrary to my tone in this thread, I respect the linemaker's ability and we have to think, "what is the linemaker trying to do here?"
My initial feeling is he is just totally off in the Riders game and is relying on Mike Reilly to work some magic in the entire Lions team since their last game. The Lions look like a dysfunctional poorly coached team and the Riders have a tough venue to play in and just got embarrassed at home their last game, fundamentally and motivationally, the Riders have a HUGE advantage, they should kill the Lions,
The Als the bookmaker has not caught to the fact that they now are in the middle of the pack in the CFL hierarchy, as are the Eskimos...there's a 5 point difference in the bookmaker and my lines...usually, but not always that has lead to success when playing the team that my power rating has said to take.
The Argos found a quarterback, but the team looks poorly coached. Winless teams have had success as away dogs in the past, but it's doubtfull I'd take them. Calgary just threw away a game on the road where they dominated the yards versus the Tiger Cats, and we have a Grey Cup winning coach that will batten down all the hatches this week for his team. Their defensive line looked very tough against a very good Hamilton team and they have created a lot of turnovers this season. I don't think they screw it again this week unless Arbuckle is not near as good as he's looked the first two games.....the Stamps have three very good ex-quarterbacks on staff that will be mentoring this guy who from the sounds of things really wants to succeed.
And finally the Bombers, unbeaten and probably at least 7 points better at least on a neutral field to any team in the league. Unbeaten favorites at this point of the season have been poor pointspread propositions,...usually parity reigns in the CFL. The Redblacks though have the looks of a team where everything that could go wrong will go wrong this season. Their quarterback looks like a turnover machine and teams that lose the turnover battle lose to the pointspread about 80% of the time.
The Argos found a quarterback, but the team looks poorly coached. Winless teams have had success as away dogs in the past, but it's doubtfull I'd take them. Calgary just threw away a game on the road where they dominated the yards versus the Tiger Cats, and we have a Grey Cup winning coach that will batten down all the hatches this week for his team. Their defensive line looked very tough against a very good Hamilton team and they have created a lot of turnovers this season. I don't think they screw it again this week unless Arbuckle is not near as good as he's looked the first two games.....the Stamps have three very good ex-quarterbacks on staff that will be mentoring this guy who from the sounds of things really wants to succeed.
And finally the Bombers, unbeaten and probably at least 7 points better at least on a neutral field to any team in the league. Unbeaten favorites at this point of the season have been poor pointspread propositions,...usually parity reigns in the CFL. The Redblacks though have the looks of a team where everything that could go wrong will go wrong this season. Their quarterback looks like a turnover machine and teams that lose the turnover battle lose to the pointspread about 80% of the time.
Redblacks officially in desperation mode with word that Jonathan Jennings has been installed as starter versus the Bombers. Biggest play of the season for me, and if Jennings can keep this under the 10+ points versus the best team in the league, ok, I'll take the loss. I don't get how guys like him and James Franklin are actually getting paid to play football.
I used to play against guys that had Hercules-type bodies and could do all manner of dunks in warm-ups, BUT they couldn't play. Coaches getted enamoured with physical specimans, but the so-called intangibles of thinking and having the heart to win get undervalued in coaching decisions.
Jennings maybe looks good coming out of the shower, IDK and maybe he can throw the ball 80 yards,....but he is a knucklehead. Maybe Campbell of the Redblacks can do some coaching magic, but I am putting up money that says he can't.
Redblacks are a go-against for the forseeable future and if they somehow cover versus the Bombers I'll double up against them next week at home versus Calgary.
Play:
2) Bombers -10'
Redblacks officially in desperation mode with word that Jonathan Jennings has been installed as starter versus the Bombers. Biggest play of the season for me, and if Jennings can keep this under the 10+ points versus the best team in the league, ok, I'll take the loss. I don't get how guys like him and James Franklin are actually getting paid to play football.
I used to play against guys that had Hercules-type bodies and could do all manner of dunks in warm-ups, BUT they couldn't play. Coaches getted enamoured with physical specimans, but the so-called intangibles of thinking and having the heart to win get undervalued in coaching decisions.
Jennings maybe looks good coming out of the shower, IDK and maybe he can throw the ball 80 yards,....but he is a knucklehead. Maybe Campbell of the Redblacks can do some coaching magic, but I am putting up money that says he can't.
Redblacks are a go-against for the forseeable future and if they somehow cover versus the Bombers I'll double up against them next week at home versus Calgary.
Expect the Stamps to come out firing against the hapless Argos. Feel like the Argos with Bethel-Thompson will put up enough points to get the OVER for us. Stamps 44-18.
1) Riders - 3'
Riders 33-17
2) Bombers -10'
Bombers 41-16
Plays:
3) Calgary -12
4) Calgary OVER 52'
Expect the Stamps to come out firing against the hapless Argos. Feel like the Argos with Bethel-Thompson will put up enough points to get the OVER for us. Stamps 44-18.
I agree Eddie....what in the world was the coach thinking?,....... YOU HAVE TO GO FOR IT, in that situation.
Felt like the Toronto coach had a bet plus the points.
That and the game when Edmonton's coach kicked a field goal with 2 minutes left when he had a first down on the Bombers' 25 were boneheaded decisions, that ultimately were losing wagers.
Anyway, the Bombers took care of business and the Redblacks had to find out what was pretty obvious to everyone else...Jonathan Jennings can't play quarterback.
I'd say it will be the last game he ever starts in the CFL, the same as James Franklin for the Argos.
I agree Eddie....what in the world was the coach thinking?,....... YOU HAVE TO GO FOR IT, in that situation.
Felt like the Toronto coach had a bet plus the points.
That and the game when Edmonton's coach kicked a field goal with 2 minutes left when he had a first down on the Bombers' 25 were boneheaded decisions, that ultimately were losing wagers.
Anyway, the Bombers took care of business and the Redblacks had to find out what was pretty obvious to everyone else...Jonathan Jennings can't play quarterback.
I'd say it will be the last game he ever starts in the CFL, the same as James Franklin for the Argos.
Als get the win....they could win the division as they look to be at least equal to the Tiger Cats and the other two teams among the worst in the league.
Als get the win....they could win the division as they look to be at least equal to the Tiger Cats and the other two teams among the worst in the league.
Riders despite their big win not looking like they can challenge at the top of the division, as their defense is not elite this season. Lions continue to look terrible.
Plays:
1) Riders -3' win
2) Bombers -10' win
3) Stamps -10' loss
4) Stamps OVER loss
2-2 for the week, 19-16 ATS for the season
Two terrible weeks.
Riders despite their big win not looking like they can challenge at the top of the division, as their defense is not elite this season. Lions continue to look terrible.
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