week 11 Indigo lines

3-0-1 for the season.....+2.5 units.

I put out my lines using relative strength....obviously now sportsinteraction and bet365 are now putting out lines on Sunday, and Draftkings and betMGM are putting CFL lines out a week in advance which is very helpful....a pleasant switch from years past when bookmakers wouldn't put out lines until 24 hours before the games went off.

Tre Ford is a superstar in the CFL as Rourke was in his brief CFL career,.....it is looking likely that bookmakers are slow to catch on....the difference between him a Bethel-Thompson I have rated as a 10 points per game difference.....the Elks are an average-to-below average team with Thompson, and a top 1 or 2 team with Ford.....I hope the guy doesn't get hurt, because he will make us bettors money.  They will play a lot of OVERs as well with Ford because the Edmonton defense is nothing to write home about.

  1)  Calgary -3 52 Ottawa.......(Masoli, it is announced is starting for the Redblacks....would have preferred the other backup, Dustin Crum, that played last game).

  2)  Saskatchewan +3 47 Montreal....will it be Harris or Patterson starting?....Patterson has grown on me....he looked pretty good last game.

  3)  Tiger Cats +3' 53 Elks.....Bo Levi Mitchell is a play-against quarterback these days...if the TCs get smart and play their backup who looked good versus the Als, this game will be an OVER play.

  4)  Lions +6 44 Bombers.....Lions look totally beat up and are the worst team in the West without Adams.

Lean Redblacks, OVER Hamilton/Edmonton, and Elks - IF Ford starts next week for the Elks.

a)  A home team where both teams score over 20 points has gone OVER 83.8% of the time.....we are making an assumption, in the case of Edmonton, that they will score more than  20 on the horrible Hamilton defense, but also allow over 20, as their defense is not much better than the Tiger Cats' D.  We'll see if Ford starts at QB.

H and points>20 and o:points>20 and division!=o:division

b)  A home favorite of less than 7 points before October that lost their last game on the road, and won their previous, previous game at home.  We will also stipulate that our home favorite has won their last three home games.....2-15 ATS (-11.4), 5-12 straight up.....VERSUS Stampeders

pp:HW and p:AL and HF and tS(W@ H, N=3)=3 and month<10 and line>-7

c)  A team that lost and got shut out the last time they played their present opponent.....1-9 ATS (-10.5), 0-10 straight up (-14)......VERSUS Lions

P:L and P:points=0

One sportsbook has the Elks at 50/1 to win the Grey Cup.....am mulling it over.....the Saint Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in very similar circumstances about 5 years ago.

Right now, they would not be more than 4 point road underdogs to any team in the West in a playoff scenario.....so getting to the playoffs would present quite a nice hedging opportunity. 

d)  An away non-divisional favorite off a home win where they rushed for over 150 yards.....6-11 ATS, (-5.3), 8-9 straight up (0.0), including 2-7 ATS the last nine such instances.....VERSUS Elks

AF and p:rushing yards>150 and division!=o:division and p:HW

e)  A non-divisional away favorite with a winning percentage of greater than or equal to 75% off a home win in July or later.....8-22 ATS (-6.4), 13-17 straight up (-0.7).....VERSUS Alouettes.....if our away favorite has won 2 or more out of their past 4 away games this moves to 1-11 ATS (-12.3), 4-8 straight up (-4.9)

p:HW and AF and division!=o:division and tA(W)>.75 and month>6 and tS(W@A, N=4)>1

Play:

1)  Roughriders +120....1 unit

Thank you for these. It is a pleasure watching you work the data base at killersports.com

Well, for the CFL we cannot use killersports, only gimmethedog.

f) A home team off a tie....6-0 straight up (+13.70)......Roughriders

playoffs=0 and p:margin=0 and site

Plays.....adding:

2)  Redblacks +3'......1 unit

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1)  Roughriders +120....1 unit

Nathan Rourke signs with BC....which changes everything.....good for the league, he will be must-watch TV.

I would make the proper line in the Lions/Bombers game, with the idea that Rourke is starting at qb, at....

Lions -3 49 Bombers

Looking forward to watching him do what he does in the CFL.

Don't see the Lions holding onto to Vernon Adams,....if Kelly is not to be reinstated anytime soon,  I would put him in Toronto.

The Blue Bombers were -3 this morning, now they are +1   Who is the starting qb for the Lions this week?  Is it Rourke or Adams?

Just watched the press conference from the BC Lions Coach.  "Nathan will likely play this Sunday against Winnipeg"   Nathan Rourke will arrive at the BC training facility on Wednesday and start taking first team reps. The BC coach says he expects Nathan Rourke to start all of the remaining games in the regular season.  Looks like VA is the odd man out and I don't think VA wants to be a backup.

Thanks for the update D_M....ja, the coach has tried to sell it that having  two alpha quarterbacks is a great thing.....I don't think so, and more importantly those two guys won't think so either.....

Line has moved, but not enough in the Lions/Bombers game.  There is a pretty strong angle supporting the Bombers mentioned earlier in this thread, so this is a  heart/head issue, as we would want to back BC, but the angle says the opposite, so it is looking likely to be a no-play.

Edmonton and BC should be play-ons for the foreseeable future as long as the appropriate qbs are behind center....evidently Tre Ford is day-to-day.

The line is moving towards Calgary....here is another angle supporting the Redblacks.

f)  Away dogs whose present opponent  have won 2 or 3 out of their past three home games are 233-192 ATS, 54.8% in the CFL, which moves to 146-115-2 ATS 55.9% if the line is less than 7....this moves to 55-38 ATS, 59.1%, if our away dog is playing a non-divisional opponent.

AD and oS(W@H, N=3)>1 and line<7 and division!=o:division

If our away non-divisional dog has won 1 or zero out of their past three road games, this moves to 40-22 ATS, 64.5%

AD and oS(W@H, N=3)>1 and line<7 and division!=o:division and tS(W@A, N=3)<2

If we exclude games played on Sunday, this moves to 33-14 ATS (+5.6), 70.2% and 27-19 straight up (+1.6), including 18-8 ATS if they won the previous match-up.

AD and oS(W@H, N=3)>1 and line<7 and division!=o:division and tS(W@A, N=3)<2 and day!=Sunday and P:W

Plays.....adding:

2)  Redblacks +3'......1 unit.................winner

_____________________________

1)  Roughriders +120....1 unit

If I am Ottawa I am starting Masoli the rest of the season....good for him!

Tre Ford almost certainly won't play this week.....the Elks are a play at Montreal at +7+ points if he starts next week.

Thanks for the stats!!!

i like Sask at home tonite…good luck

@Indigo999

 Nice hit on Ottawa....on SSK also......bol tonight...

Looking at Hamilton on Saturday......

I like the Elks too, but probably won't play them....cannot back them when MBT is quarterbacking them and Bo is no longer the Cats' starting qb.

Might take a shot on the Bombers if I could get them at +3 or more....BOL....

I don't normally play NFL preseason.....however gimmethedog now has a database of past results......so.....

g)  A week two preseason away dog that lost its first game playing a team that won in week 1....41-17-1 ATS (+4.6)....20-8-1 ATS (+5.81) if the game is played on Saturday......ON Commanders, Bengals

p:L and op:W and A and D and week=2 

I read in years past that fading the line move is a good, profitable strategy in NFLX, which I have not researched....both of these have moved strongly in favor of the home favorite.

Plays:

3)  Bengals +6'.....1/2 unit

4)  Commanders +5...1/2 unit

2)  Roughriders +120...1 unit

1)  Redblacks +3'........1 unit....winner (31-29)

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[Quote: Originally Posted by Indigo999]Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321: Looking at Hamilton on Saturday......     

Sorry, misread your post...wouldn't blame you if you took the Tiger Cats as the qb looked really good.

Riders have gone to favorites, the BC Lions might become 3 or more point favorites by their game time, and possibly the Tiger Cats might become pik or a small favorite using pinnacle as an indicator in the last two instances.