Testing, testing

Can I actually post a thread here?

Yessss!

After two failed posting attempts I am actually live on covers.  Lots of changes in the coaching ranks,...I liked all of new hires.  LaPolice didn't do well in his first attempt as a head coach, but neither did Belichick.  

I liked BC getting Rick Campbell, him combining with Riley and they should be prolific. Their o-line after replacing o-line coaches last year was not terrible,...previous to that we learned that Riley cannot complete passes lying on his backside.  I expect them to be big improvers.

Calgary should be in the mix because they have an expert coach, with a very good quarterback that plays the system very well.  A measure of how good a coach is, is if your linchpin star is injured can you still win games, which Belichick has done without Brady and what Dickenson did w/o BLM last year.

The Bombers will be without their two top qbs from last year and going with Zac who I haven't liked since his bad injury some years ago.  They go into the season without their offensive coordinator from past years and while they have been an excellent point spread covering team the past few years...this is the year they hit a wall.  I think they have a hard time winning more than 8 games this season.

Saskatchewan played very well last year and Fajardo was a revelation.  Now he joins the excellent offensive mind of Jason Maas and I think this team is the favorite to win the division.   The perceived dropoff I thought would happen with Head Coach Jones departing did not happen, which shows that the new guy knows what he is doing.

Edmonton has the biggest variability of any team coming into the season...they could be big improvers minus Maas' boneheaded decisions on the field with a proven CFL coach in Milanovich, or maybe not.  I thought their D was pretty good last season...I will watch that team with interest.

On to the East.

Hamilton was awfully good last year, before being awfully awful in the Grey Cup.  They were the best team in the league last year, without their best quarterback, and they return their very good defensive line intact this year.  Teams that dominate in the regular season without winning a title tend to be mission teams the next year and I expect the TCs to hoist the cup this coming season.

The Tiger Cats' Steinauer is a defensive genius, and they will dominate their division this year.  Perhaps they won't be as good against the spread this year, but I won't be fading them much.  If I am the Vegas CFL linemaker, I make them +200 to win the Grey Cup.

Toronto woke up and fired their overmatched head coach...they should win a couple of more games just based on that.  They signed a ton of guys.  Dinwiddie is a mystery, and one would hope that at least he could get his team to generate some offense.  They were so terrible last year though that even if he is a great coach, one may not see any results for 8 games or so.  The very, very best coaches often had pathetic teams their first year, until being around 500 their second year and then becoming contenders their 3rd season.  I won't be rushing to the pay window to put down any greenbacks on the Argos this season....I'll call for a 5 win season.

Ottawa gets LaPolice running the show and gets the Arbuckle to be the main man.  Should be a good marriage and a big upgrade over the two slugs that the Redblacks put out on the field last year as alleged quarterbacks.  Is Jonathan Jennings still on a CFL roster or James Franklin?  Still, the Redblacks are gonna have to convince me that they made the right move getting rid of Rick Campbell after one terrible season where they made very big personnel mistakes on who they should have play quarterback for them, as well as having  the championship runner-up curse to contend with.  I don't see them as appreciatively better this season than last....I'll make them 6-12.

Lastly, the feel-good story of the season last year was the usually terrible Alouettes got flukishly lucky last year in finally having a good coach to lead them, when Mike Sherman was let go about a week before the regular season was about to start.  This franchise needed some luck and it turns out that Khari Jones can coach.  They lost a lot in free agency though and we'll see if they can overcome it.  I see a season of consolidation after last year's jump in wins.  I am not convinced that Vernon Adams is the answer and this will be the season where he comes into the season as the undisputed number one where  he'll get every opportunity to prove he is a winner.....well, we'll see, won't we?  I see 9-9 as their final record though I like Jones, and would like to see the Als succeed.

And, that is the view from here...sure you'll have some differing views and hey, Stamps' fans don't take it personal if I pick against your club once in awhile.....haha.

I will be wrong frequently I guarantee that, but hopefully only around 41% of the time.

Grey Cup Odds....Hamilton at +301 to win it.

1)  Tiger Cats +301

2)  Sasquatches +401

3)  Stampeders +498

4)  Bombers +504

5)  Eskimos +800

6)  Alouettes +800

7)  Lions +1000

Looks like the bookmakers are all over it,,,,hard to take anyone other than TCs this year, as they will win their division which gives them one home playoff game to win to get to the finale.  In the other division, there are 5 teams that will beat each other up the whole season....hard to pick one to come out of the West, though rightfully the Roughriders are the favorite.

Here are my over/under team totals if I were making them.

Tiger Cats 12.5

Alouettes 9

Redblacks 6

Argonauts 5

Roughriders 11.5

Stampeders 11

Blue Bombers 9.5

Eskimos 9

Lions 8.5

First research of the season for all of you diehards out there.

I will give you my research which you can decide is relevant to YOU, or not.  Many will not resonate with it, or "what does the past have to do with the present?"....if that is you, then you can skip over my posts throughout the year, because that is what ALL of my posts will be about.  Everyone has a different methodology and I am not trying to tell you or convince you or anyone else that my way is the best way or the only way.  It is estimated on the stock market that 10% of stock pickers use technical research as the basis of where they lay their money, so technical analysis players will be in the minority.  Different opinions and methodologies are what makes a market, alright?

Game ones in the CFL historically have favored the away dogs....game one away dogs have been 26-13 ATS going back 10 years.  Let's see if we can filter it down to make the results better.

We find that game one away underdogs that either won more games than their game one opponent did last year or won  greater than or equal to  four games less than their opponent have been 20-7 ATS.  

For example if team A was an away dog and won 6 games last year (no playoff games count) and their game one opponent won 10 games, that is a qualifying play, whereas if their present opponent won 11 games last year, it would not be a qualifying play.

Below is the query that can be copied and pasted into the  sportsdatabase or killersports query box to look at the results I got.

AD  and game number=1  and PRSW-o:PRSW>=-4 

The results have been 20-7 ATS

Here are the matchups for game one with the amount of regular season games they won last year next to the team.

Lions (5)          @  Eskimos (8)

Argonauts (4)  @ Redblacks (3)

Alouettes (10)  @ Stampeders (12)

Bombers  (11) @ Tiger Cats (15)

Every game one away team qualifies under my research if they are dogs, and I would expect every road team to be an underdog barring a major quarterback injury.

week = 1 and AD and

n:H   ATS:  21-7

n:A   ATS:  4-5

That is a huge difference.  I hope it doesn't start regressing as soon as I bet it.

Regression is inevitable in sports betting,....hopefully we can embrace regression as a friend and use him to our advantage.

Here is a query using regression from the previous season.

We are looking to take all teams that won 9 or less regular season games last year in the first four games of the regular season as away dogs.

AD and PRSW<=9 and game number<5

55-34 ATS

If we look into how those same type of teams do as home dogs we get 28-16 ATS, 18-7 ATS as non divisional home dogs.

HD and game number<5 and PRSW<=9

Home favorites that won less than 10 games last year however have been 22-36 AT in the first four games.

With so many leagues cancelling games, it is hard to imagine that the CFL will play games as scheduled.

We can only hope.

I would say it is  50-50 that the season goes forward as planned.  From the statistics I've looked the virus has a 3-4% mortality rate, which is neither here nor there, but I thought I would display my awesome computational abilities.

Nice to hear the Halifax is proceeding with the eventuality of a team being there.  Those less than huge cities/areas that don't have professional sports appreciate and support their teams normally....just look at Oklahoma City and Portland in the NBA....they have some of the best fan bases in the NBA.  Obviously councils and government don't have a lot of experience in those places in getting the pieces together, like having and financing a stadium, leases, etc.  I suppose politicians are like most professions where they think about survival of their means of income first and putting one's neck on the line by committing a community to a pro sports team is daunting.  And, of course, the more meetings  and collaboration that needs to take place, the less likely something gets done in a fastidious manner, bring back monarchies!

Those fans will be great, when/if it happens in Halifax, I predict...they've already sold out their preseason game there which is pretty great.  Perhaps the CFL's next step will be to do a preseason game in Europe or Brazil where they are playing north american football.

Good luck to the Schooners!

I hope the season starts on time I'm already having sports withdrawal

Now doubtful the season will start on time, as north america will basically shut everything down for 3 months.

This thread is an opinion page, and MY opinion is that if things go well in regards to the virus and all of its ramifications, is that the CFL season will start at the  beginning of July.  

Worse case scenario is that everything sports-wise is cancelled until the beginning of 2021.  The warm weather in north america should help and herd immunity with exposure to the virus will cause it to flame out.  I am not a believer in the scientists saving us with vaccinations (and it is quite possible that scientists  accidentally created this virus by trying to create a vaccine for SARS).

I am not entering into a debate about the initial start to this virus, as how does it actually benefit anyone even if we had a definitive answer?  I keep an open mind and I am open to what others have to say, but definitely I do not trust mainstream media to give us true answers to anything. 

Eat lots of fruits and veggies, drink lots of warm liquids, have hot baths, showers, saunas, and contrary to what some "experts" say, get plenty of sunlight.  Eat lots of garlic and onions as they warming to the body and this virus has proliferated in colder climate conditions, and those foods also have anti-viral qualities.  So does eucalyptus oil which can be applied topically into the chest area and can be an immune enhancer.  The virus attacks the respiratory area, so the more strong and immune your respiratory area is, the better.

For other home anti-virals food/teas, all one has to do is google "anti-viral foods", etc.

Obviously, if you feel you might have the virus then seek medical attention...however be aware of the fact that once one enters a hospital, there is a 15% chance of dying from something totally unrelated to you or your loved ones' original reason for being admitted.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3etAlUUHQ06JGv0G8G0YHQcf5cwUSa-X_O0wn0YJtIfUxJk3ZGaB_fg1E

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.

(Update: The Italian National Institute of Health published a statistical report on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)

The doctor also points out the following aspects:

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.

South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.

The approximately twelve test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of 80 years and a maximum age of 90 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.

Furthermore, according to a first Chinese study, the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may not have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)

Thanks for the depressing information.

I am 70 years old and I have a compromised immune system.  I just hope I survive to wager on the next CFL season which will probably be 2021 at the earliest.

Thanks for posting your research, Indigo999.  It's a relief to think about anything else instead of COVID-19.

I have a bad feeling about the cfl this year.

Well, our world has certainly been turned upside down.  I've read fivethirtyeight.com and their insight and analysis.  Being a stats type of guy, and not trusting mainstream media, and their motto of "never letting a good crisis go to waste" with their sensationalism and scaremongering, I breathed a sigh of relief upon reading 538's stuff.  I'd recommend them them to you if you are reading the news.

One of the points made is that no one is actually sure what is going to happen.  We want to have a feeling that someone who is an "expert" who should know what is going on will give us the inside scoop.  Except they are all extrapolating data and interpreting it differently.

Experts are the most overrated people in the world.  How often do we tune into the nightly news and watch the weather "expert" tell us what will happen in the next fews days.  He would have been trained in his profession like most are....and what is his hit rate?  He is wrong a good percentage of the time.  Same with stockbrokers....how come the vast majority of them are not rich?  They're experts, right?  One very good piece of advice in the financial arena is to find out if the guy giving you advice has made his millions yet.  If he loses you some or all of your money, it is your fault, not his, as it was with my father in the global financial crises 12 years ago.

Germany has evidently done the most testing, which MAYBE accounts for their 1.4% mortality rate...perhaps they've just tested more of the general population than anyone else.  Hard to account for the fact that Italy has a 12% mortality rate in contrast to Germany's, I mean could it be that the Germans eating sauerkraut and the Italians kissing and hugging everyone is the reason?  We don't know.   I suppose 700 years ago when the Bubonic Plague started, no one considered that having rats around with fleas on them could possibly be a reason for killing millions of people, just as no one considered that the reason that the mortality rate of newborns was sky high 300 years ago was because the personnel delivering babies  were not bothering with washing their hands.  The actual guy that proposed the washing of hands actually was kicked out of practicing medicine and the practice only got grudging acceptance over a period of time.

And so it will be with this epidemic...something that is widely done or accepted will be found to be the root cause of this, and the discovery quite possibly will come from a non-expert and he will be ridiculed widely, in the beginning at least,  as not having the proper credentials, experience or knowledge necessary to make the discovery.  Twenty years from now it be known and the method of our daily lives will have changed.  

And, if someone wants fame and possibly fortune,...invent a device that can detect the virus on surfaces of not only humans, but anywhere else.  A special lens, maybe like they do for looking at possible skin cancers in a doctor's office.

The 538 survey of Americans has show that about 1/3 of the population is very concerned about the coronavirus situation, 1/3 are mildly concerned, and 1/3 are not really concerned much, if at all.  On the other hand, about 1/2 of the population is very concerned about the financial health of the country going forward.

I predict that in the beginning of May in the USA that the social distancing will be relaxed.  I base that on the fact that the timeline of China's policies by May 1st in the USA will be approximately the same.  Am I right?  It doesn't matter, but I look at what someone successful has done and think that it can be replicated in other places in a similar manner.

It is an interesting dynamic as the whole world right now is a test tube.  We have some attempting to take plasma out of those who have successfully defeated the virus and transfused it into critically ill patients.  Sounds like a good idea in theory.

Brazil, on the other hand is basically saying, "we'll just throw the mass population at this virus and we'll see who wins". Totally opposite of conventional thinking.  The head guy of Brazil is basically putting his political career on the line and I don't dismiss that as something that could work either.  Usually the absurd or something totally outside of the mode of conventional thinking will work...we'll see if its this.

From CFL website, training camp will not start in May as originally scheduled.  

No big surprise there.

I think there is possibility of training camp opening up in June for the CFL....purely speculative thinking.

There seems to be a 6 week period of the virus proliferating, before a top and then a decline.  Warmer weather will help the  northern hemisphere.

There may come a tipping point where the tradeoff of a possible financial meltdown for a country supersedes the dangers of infection.  Obviously the richer countries can sustain a longer time frame of inactivity, but I don't think they'd go longer than 3 months.  If/when push comes to shove I predict Mr. Trump will place his huge pile of  chips and his political career on the health of the economy of his country over the risk of infection to  its people.  Half of his country is VERY concerned over the economy versus 36% of the country is VERY concerned about the virus situation (fivethirtyeight.com)

As far as Canada goes, I don't know the psyche of the country like a Canadian would and whether someone making the big and hard decisions would make a similar decision to Trump, or not.  

Some countries have just tested about anything on two legs and kept those with infection out of public circulation, which is how a future pandemic will be handled.

China is now opening up stores and factories for work, and South Korea has as well.  Germany has a very low mortality rate.  Those countries will be in the lead as far as getting things back to normal gradually in their countries.

Never heard of the site , so I went and the first thing I saw was abc news that's all I needed to see so I didn't really  see anything. But I do think you will see people out and about come may 1 and parts of the country back up and running. Can't pay any bills at my town office they tell you to do things online , but i'm willing to bet there open mid to late april for the town taxes , them I can see them closing down again for a little bit.

Does suck for the cfl  , can't wait to see the nfl draft I think that's going to be interesting.

My over/under on the start of the season is July 15 for the CFL.

Odds  that spectators will be allowed in to the games for game 1 if the season starts in 2020?   

yes +100

no   -120