2023 Monaco Grand Prix Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Verstappen Favored After Stealing Pole

Another magical qualifying session from Red Bull's Max Verstappen saw him steal pole from Fernando Alonso. With that, he's a healthy -300 favorite ahead of Sunday's race — read more in our full Monaco GP odds below.

Last Updated: May 27, 2023 9:33 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Max Verstappen Red Bull Formula 1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After last week's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was canceled due to flooding in Northern Italy, the Formula 1 universe shifts its focus to the Monaco Grand Prix on May 28 — one of the more prestigious races on the calendar. 

The opening Formula 1 odds board for the sixth race of the season is more of the same, with Red Bull running mates Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez taking up the top spots after exchanging victories through the first five.

Find out where everyone stands in our full Monaco Grand Prix odds breakdown, betting line reactions, picks, and more. 

Monaco Grand Prix 2023 odds

Driver Team Odds
Max Verstappen Red Bull -300
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin +290
Carlos Sainz Ferrari +1,700
Esteban Ocon Alpine +3,000
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes +4,000
Charles Leclerc Ferrari +4,000
Geroge Russell Mercedes +9,000
Pierre Gasly Alpine +15,000
Sergio Perez Red Bull +25,000
Lando Norris McLaren +40,000
Lance Stroll Aston Martin +40,000
Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri +70,000
Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo +90,000
Oscar Piastri McLaren +90,000
Nyck de Vries AlphaTauri +90,000
Nico Hulkenberg Haas +90,000
Logan Sargeant Williams +90,000
Kevin Magnussen Haas +90,000
Guanyu Zhou Alfa Romeo +90,000
Alex Albon Williams +90,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 27, 2023 (after Saturday's qualifying).

Monaco Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying favorite

Max Verstappen (-300)

Max Verstappen has been the racer to beat for quite some time and that will remain the case until further notice. 

Three wins and two runner-up finishes to his teammate means the back-to-back Drivers' Champion is getting the most out of this dominant Red Bull.

And while his teammate has gotten more shine in street races, Max did win here back in 2021 and enters Sunday's race on pole — a routinely insurmountable advantage for the two-time champ. 

Monaco Grand Prix 2023 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Max Verstappen to win

As chalky as it is to predict a Verstappen win, it's hard to argue against it after he secured pole position on Saturday. That's not to say Verstappen isn't excellent at climbing the grid with drivers in front of him, but he and his car are magnitudes better at separating from the pack once he's ahead of it.

At -275 odds (implied 73.3% probability) to win the race, it's hard to argue that there is still some value left on the bone given that Verstappen has converted 23 pole positions into wins in his 38 attempts — good for just 60.5% in comparison.

He is still the driver to back if forced to take one, but there is value in other markets to attack (which we'll attack here in a bit).

Pick: Max Verstappen to win outright (-275 at BetMGM)

Best bet: Charles Leclerc podium finish 

Leclerc held pole position for several moments of qualifying before Verstappen ultimately took home pole position in the final minute, and that should come as no surprise. Leclerc took home pole position in the last two years at Monaco and that's not at all.

For those who don't remember, Leclerc was comfortably winning last year's Monaco Grand Prix, having built a 4.7-second lead over teammate Carlos Sainz, who was another 2.6 seconds ahead of the field.

Several laps later, a communication gaffe by the Ferrari team inadvertently brought Leclerc in for a tire change just behind his teammate, causing him to be serviced second and dropping him immediately to fourth once he exited the pit.

Without that mistake, it's quite easy to project Leclerc as last year's winner (assuming, of course, Ferrari wouldn't have goofed it elsewhere). We won't take it as far as betting on him to win, but logically, it makes a lot of sense for him to make podium at the very least.

Best bet: Charles Leclerc podium finish (+350 at Unibet)

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Monaco Grand Prix 2023 starting grid

Starting Position Driver
1 Max Verstappen
2 Fernando Alonso
3 Esteban Ocon
4 Carlos Sainz
5 Lewis Hamilton
6 Charles Leclerc (3-place grid penalty)
7 Pierre Gasly
8 George Russell
9 Yuki Tsunoda
10 Lando Norris
11 Oscar Piastri
12 Nyck de Vries
13 Alex Albon
14 Lance Stroll
15 Valtteri Bottas
16 Logan Sargeant
17 Kevin Magnussen
18 Nico Hulkenberg
19 Zhou Guanyu
20 Sergio Perez

Monaco Grand Prix 2023 opening odds reaction

Sergio Perez to win 

Until Perez is priced to be the threat he is to win race to race, he will continue to be a value bet. Perez is ultimately: 1) the second-place holder in the Drivers' Championship standings, 2) has won two of the season's five races 3) has reached the podium in all but one of those races and 4) is the reigning champion at Monaco.

To add fuel to the flame, he not only won last year's race, but he also qualified ahead of teammate Verstappen. To get someone with that track record at the fourth-best odds at +600 odds is intuitively nonsensical, and it's worth a stab before qualifying. 

Sergio has the juice to win.

Lean: Bet before qualifying

Leclerc fastest qualifier (+175)

These odds may seem short but they arguably should be shorter. In the three qualifying rounds, he has truly completed (he retired in one and crashed in the third round in Miami) he has a first and second place finish.

Leclerc also dusted the field in last year's qualifying round at Monaco, posting a time that was 0.23 seconds faster than the field, while the second- to fourth-place finishers came within 0.06 seconds of each other. Also of note: Leclerc took pole position in the qualifying round the year prior as well.

He obviously has been a liability on Sundays in the 2023 season, but he belongs on your Monaco card here.

Lean: Bet before qualifying

Lance Stroll Top 6 finish (+110)

Stroll has been one of Formula One's biggest surprises this season with three finishes inside the Top 10 through five races. In comparison, he had just two instances of such across last year's 22 races.

Last year in Monaco, he posted the 18th-fastest time in the first round of qualifying before having to retire before the final two rounds. He finished 14th in the actual race, which on paper seems impressive, but three drivers had retired and Stroll ultimately only truly improved by one spot.

Stroll has also never finished inside the Top 6 at Monaco, having posted 14th, eighth, 16th, 17th, and 15th in his career.

Lean: Stay away or fade

Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2022 Sergio Perez Red Bull
2021 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2020 No event: COVID-19 related. N/A
2019 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2018 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull
2017 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari
2016 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2015 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2014 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2013 Nico Rosberg Mercedes
2012 Mark Webber Red Bull
2011 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull
2010 Mark Webber Red Bull

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

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