Oscar night is here, and the 98th Academy Awards will go live at 7 p.m. ET at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles.
As we've monitored Oscars odds throughout the festival and awards seasons, it all comes down to this. Sometimes, it's worth waiting to get the best possible number for a particular pick. That's what I've done here.
I've pored over the latest odds to find areas of value and found four picks worth targeting before the ceremony starts on Sunday, March 15.
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1. Best Actor - Timothee Chalamet
For months, Timothee Chalamet had been on cruise control in the Best Actor race, which seemed to culminate with his Golden Globes victory, theoretically sealing the deal. Well, things haven't gone as well lately.
Michael B. Jordan is the betting favorite after winning at the Actor Awards (formerly SAG). The BAFTAs offered no insight into how this market might turn, with Robert Aramayo, who is not nominated for an Oscar, winning for "I Swear." Then, completing Chalamet's trifecta of bad beats, the actor performed an unforced error by seemingly dissing opera and ballet:
Timothée Chalamet controversially claimed "no one cares" about ballet and opera anymore, causing uproar across the internet and the arts industry. CNN's Lisa Respers France reports. pic.twitter.com/To9pKJmoRb
— CNN (@CNN) March 11, 2026
Regardless of how you personally feel about his comments, I don't think we can really weigh them as particularly damaging to his chances on Oscar night.
Jordan may very well win, but this drastic shift in the odds is so sudden and so stark that I can't help but find value in picking Chalamet, especially when he looked like a lock as recently as late February.
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2. Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgard
This is a bit more of a long shot than Chalamet is, and with good reason. Sean Penn has won at a whole host of precursors, including the Actor Awards and BAFTAs.
Maybe the Academy voters won't hold that against him, and maybe assurances have been given that he will indeed be in attendance tonight, but I'd still be eyeing Stellan Skarsgard, regardless.
Skarsgard won the Golden Globe (and this year's Oscars feel like a litmus test for how predictive the current state of the Globes really is) and, perhaps more importantly, has never won an Oscar despite being a widely respected and liked performer for decades. This is his first nomination. That logic can also apply to Delroy Lindo, who should have been recognized already for several roles (my personal favorite being in Spike Lee's Crooklyn), but he's had less of a foothold in this race.
Penn has two Oscars already. And while that doesn't always preclude the Academy from awarding another, I think the probability gap has widened too much.
3. Best Supporting Actress - Teyana Taylor
While I banged the drum for Skarsgard's "Sentimental Value" co-star Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in my long-shot picks, that seems to be dwindling.
Kalshi had Teyana Taylor at 71% to win this here award as recently as February 22, the night of the BAFTAs. Wunmi Mosaku won for "Sinners" in a bit of a surprise that ultimately turned this category into a three-woman race alongside Taylor and Amy Madigan, who subsequently won at the Actor Awards.
This is a category that has seen a ton of fluctuation (the lizard part of my brain thinks this might be good news for Lilleaas, but I must resist). Instead, I like Taylor at value. She is a force of nature in "One Battle After Another," and while she's mostly gone from the movie after the opening 25 minutes, her presence lingers until the very end.
At 25%, this is the lowest probability Kalshi has offered on her since early October.
4. Best International Feature Film - "The Secret Agent"
I've been on the "The Secret Agent" train for months, and I see this category as close to a coin flip between it and "Sentimental Value," with Kalshi giving the latter around 67% probability and the former 28%.
Both movies are nominated for Best Picture. Although "Sentimental Value" has FOUR acting nominations, Wagner Moura has a Best Actor nod himself, and "The Secret Agent" is also listed as a contender for Best Casting.
The point is, both movies are well represented in categories beyond International Feature and are widely beloved by the film community.
Brazil has also seen an influx of support after "I'm Still Here" received a surprise Best Picture nomination a year ago, before toppling erstwhile favorite "Emilia Perez."
