The Avengers: Doomsday prediction markets are open, with traders speculating on who will appear in the cast. The latest trailer has hit, but so has Avengers: Endgame Encore, offering more than a few clues as to who will appear in the Christmas blockbuster.
Will Mark Ruffalo reprise his Hulk so soon after Spider-Man: Brand New Day? Is Hugh Jackman due an X-Men reunion as part of the ensemble cast?
Avengers: Doomsday Cast Prediction Market
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
It’s been seven long years since Earth’s Mightiest Heroes assembled in Avengers: Endgame, and Marvel’s mouse overlords are rolling a very big dice on saving the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Kalshi has Avengers: Doomsday prediction markets live for a number of major narratives ahead of the return of the Avengers to the big screen. Here, we’ll go through the strongest and most powerful markets out there for comic book fans.
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Key Takeaways
- Tobey Maguire to Return: Tobey Maguire reprising his role as Spider-Man is a 88% shot, according to Kalshi traders. Are we on for another spidey-verse?
- Deadpool & Wolverine to Reunite?: Marvel's greatest comedy double act are priced at 92¢ and 97¢
- Top Value Picks: The Hulk makes an appearance in the new Avengers: Endgame Encore added footage. Is Marvel bridging the gap between the last Avengers film and the new one? Mark Ruffalo's price climb makes sense if so.
- Trailer Drops: A new Avengers: Doomsday 'Special Look' dropped this summer. However, it revealed little other than the biggest characters.
Avengers: Endgame Encore Clues & Speculation
[SPOILER ALERT] Marvel released its newest Avengers: Doomsday trailer in the summer (see below). It teased some of the key characters who are likely to appear, including the Fantastic 4, Magneto and Professor X from the X-Men, plus Loki, Captain America, and Thor.
While we wait for a brand-new trailer, there's the re-release of Avengers: Endgame. This time, Marvel has added a few special scenes, and a few surprises.
Savvy prediction market traders will be watching to see if the re-release gives any clues for the Avengers: Doomsday cast.
What we know so far...
- Avengers: Endgame Encore featured four new scenes that relate to the expanded MCU and partly bridge the gap between Endgame and Doomsday.
- Bruce Banner, Loki, and Doctor Doom all feature in newly-filmed scenes
- Banner appears in the end credits working on a serum that will rid him of Hulk forever.
- X-Men characters like Magneto, Cyclops, and Professor X all appear
- Doctor Doom and Iron Man could have a closer relationship than previously thought
Avengers: Doomsday Cast Prediction Market Analysis
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner/Hulk) | ‘Yes’ at 73¢ | 70% Chance
Bruce Banner/The Hulk appears in a key end credit sequence in Avengers: Endgame Encore. He is seen working on a formula that will cure him of his Hulk-ness once and for all.
Anyone who watched the summer smash, Spider-Man: Brand New Day will remember Banner's Hulk coming under the control of Jane Grey (Sadie Sink).
In Avengers: Endgame Encore we see Hulk's work disturbed by Doctor Doom. No wonder Mark Ruffalo's 'Yes' price has shot to a 78% peak from just 19% earlier in the summer.
Teyonnah Parris (Monica Rambeau) | ‘Yes’ at 82¢ | 80% Chance
Sometimes, you need to check other cultural sidelines when pricing in Avengers: Doomsday contracts.
For this particular cultural sideline, think Funko POP toys.
As reported by ComicBookMovie.com, supposed Avengers: Doomsday Funk POPs appeared earlier in the year. While it was assumed they were sophisticated fakes, they now seem to be the real deal.
One of those Funko POP dolls was...you guessed, it, Monica Rambeau.
Monica (played by Teyonah Parris) was seen trapped in an alternate X-Men reality at the end of The Marvels. That would certainly help bridge the universe gap between The Avengers and the X-Men (who we know will appear in Avengers: Doomsday).
Teyonnah Parris's 'Yes' price leapt 10 points on the recent rumors. Join the crowd and get on at $0.82.
Tom Holland (Spider-Man) | ‘No’ at 55¢ | 55% Chance
Tom Holland as Spider-Man is the face of the MCU. While his screen time might be reduced, a complete absence is incredibly unlikely for the franchise lead, especially given his personal connection to the villain's face.
50% on a 'Yes' presummer seemed relatively cheap for a poster character. However, he has just appeared in Spider-Man: Brand New Day for Sony, potentially in the running for highest-grossing movie of the year.
There was a big drop in Holland's price as he didn't appear in the latest Avengers trailer. However, his probability has rebounded. Does it just reflect that Holland is a bona fide star how just has to be in it?
The 'No' just represents value, but he may appear in the post-credits scene. That would still trigger a 'Yes' resolve. Some on Reddit think Holland will return for the next-but-one Avengers movie, Secret Wars.
Andrew Garfield (Spider-Man) | ‘Yes’ at 27¢ | 27% Chance
There is a massive gap between Tobey Maguire (88%) and Andrew Garfield (27%).
If the "Legacy Spider-Man" plotline from Spider-Man: No Way Home is active enough to justify Tobey at 93%, it is highly improbable that Andrew is excluded.
The market is likely over-reacting to his recent denials (which he is famous for faking) or prioritizing Tobey as the "primary" cameo after supposed leaks from the
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop) | 'Yes' at 86¢ | 81% Chance
Hailee Steinfeld's Young Avengers teammates have been trading significantly higher for some time: Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang) has resolved as 'Yes', while Iman Vellani (Ms. Marvel) is at 73%.
When Steinfeld was trading at 50 cents for a 'Yes' contract, there were reasons to be wary. She announced her pregnancy with NFL quarterback Josh Allen in December 2025, and there’s a chance the Young Avengers team could find themselves pushed into the next film, Avengers: Secret Wars.
Kate Bishop is arguably the most popular and established member of that trio. It makes little narrative sense for the team to assemble (as implied by Newton/Vellani's odds) without her.
The 25-30 point gap between her and her teammates was a market error that has now corrected: if you bought in at around 50 cents trade out now and take the profit.
Avengers: Doomsday Cast Prediction Market History
Enjoy the Original Avengers: Doomsday Trailer
Robert Downey Jr. back as Iron Man this year?
Analysis
‘Yes’ at 49¢ | 49% Chance
Trust me on this one: this has the potential to be a real value pick if you get in at the right price.
Marvel Studios have been more than willing to dive deep into the comic book lore for plot hooks for MCU films.
Case and point: the reveal in Captain America: Winter Soldier that Hydra was actually hidden in the upper echelons of S.H.I.E.L.D. was taken from the very poorly reviewed but actually lots-of-fun Secret Warriors limited run.
(I might be the only person who read that book. It was great and rewrote huge parts of the Marvel canon without much fanfare.)
There are three books that play a role in this pick: What If? Iron Man: Demon in an Armor #1, Infamous Iron Man, and Superior Iron Man. Across the three titles we see Victor Von Doom stealing Tony Stark’s identity, stealing Stark’s suit, and Iron Man being portrayed as the antagonist.
My theory: In Victor Von Doom’s timeline, Iron Man, played by RDJ, was a villain. Von Doom defeats him and then uses magic to take over Stark’s body to gain access to the Extremis technology (shown in some form in Iron Man 3) and make him even more powerful. We’ll get to see the fight in flashback.
I told you it was worth hearing me out.
Will Avengers: Doomsday Be Delayed?
Analysis
Will Avengers: Doomsday be Delayed? | 'No' at 97¢ | 97% Chance
Avengers: Doomsday has already faced two delays: first from May 2025 to May 2026, and then from May to December 2026.
Marvel Studios would be in really hot water if they don't hit the new release date of December 18, 2026.
Having originally tent-polled the 2026 holiday season by scheduling Avengers 5, Disney now finds themselves sharing the spotlight and release date with Dune: Messiah.
Though industry chatter indicates Warner Bros are likely to move the third installment of the sci-fi epic to avoid the MCU blockbuster.
*Due to COVID, there were 487 days between Black Widow’s trailer and its actual release date.
Trading the Call Sheet: How to Play the Avengers Cast Markets
What if you could trade Hollywood rumors with the same precision as a tech stock?
Prediction markets have turned the Avengers: Doomsday cast list, from confirmed legends to long-shot cameos into a tradable commodity, governed by the same laws of supply and demand as the stock exchange.
The Payout Ceiling: Binary Outcomes
Every "Who will appear?" contract acts as a binary path.
A share in Tom Holland appearing is ultimately worth $1.00 at settlement or it is worth nothing.
This simple payout structure allows for more complex portfolio strategies than traditional wagering, letting you hedge a risky ‘Yes’ on a Multiverse variant with a ‘No’ on a scheduling-conflicted star.
Price Discovery and Probability
The price you pay for a casting contract represents the market's current consensus.
When the market prices Andrew Garfield at $0.17, it signals an approximate 17% implied probability of his appearance in the final cut.
If you have information, perhaps tracking production schedules in London or spotting a leaked set photo, suggesting the real probability is closer to 50%, the market is effectively offering you a discount on the truth.
Market Liquidity and Freedom
Unlike traditional sportsbooks that might "limit" winning players, prediction exchanges move with the action.
You are trading alongside other fans and investors in real-time. This allows you to exit your position on Benedict Cumberbatch or Patrick Stewart at any time before the premiere, locking in profits if a trailer drop or variety article causes their ‘Yes’ shares to spike.
Compliance and Security
In the Avengers: Doomsday casting market, your choice of platform is a choice of regulatory comfort and depth.
Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in the U.S., overseen by the CFTC. It provides a fully regulated environment for trading event contracts like the Avengers cast list, offering the consumer protections and transparency expected of a U.S. financial institution.
'Avengers: Doomsday' Prediction Markets FAQs
Most prediction market rulebooks explicitly state that a "Yes" requires a new, credited appearance, meaning archival footage or a background photograph generally does not count toward a payout. You must carefully read the specific "Rules" tab of the contract, as some markets might count a "likeness" while others strictly require a speaking role or screen credit. If the actor only appears in a flashback from 2008, the bet likely resolves to "No."
Market resolution sources are strictly defined in the rules, but typically a report from a major trade publication like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter is sufficient to trigger a "Yes" payout. Marvel does not need to tweet it themselves, as these "trades" are considered the industry record of truth for confirmed casting news. However, a rumor from a random Twitter account or blog will not resolve the market.
While his producer credit guarantees his name is on the poster, the betting market specifically asks about the character "Happy Hogan" appearing on screen. His 76% odds reflect a strong correlation with Gwyneth Paltrow’s return, as it is narratively unlikely for Pepper to appear without her head of security nearby. Traders are betting on this narrative package deal rather than his off-screen employment status with the studio.
Alan Cumming’s return as The Incredible Nightcrawler was confirmed in the infamous cast member chair YouTube stunt. This marks his second appearance as Kurt Wagner, and his first since X-Men 2 in 2003. He was revealed alongside a number of other original X-Men actors including Ian McKellen, Patrick Stewart, Rebecca Romijn, James Marsden and Kelsey Grammer. Channing Tatum will resume his role as Gambit, first seen in 'Deadpool and Wolverine'.
Nicolas Cage returning as Ghost Rider is a persistent fan-favorite rumor, but currently, it lacks the high-probability data backing seen for the core X-Men cast members. If he were a "secret cameo" of significant weight, we would likely see his odds creeping higher than the current speculative baseline. Until a credible trade report or set photo surfaces, betting on him is essentially gambling on a long-shot surprise.
