It’s been seven long years since Earth’s Mightiest Heroes assembled in Avengers: Endgame, and Marvel’s mouse overlords are rolling a very big dice on saving the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Kalshi has Avengers: Doomsday prediction markets live for a number of major narratives ahead of the return of the Avengers to the big screen. Here we’ll go through the strongest and most powerful markets out there for comic book fans.
Key Takeaways
- Top Value Picks: Andrew Garfield and Hailee Steinfeld are significantly undervalued compared to their counterparts (Tobey Maguire and other Young Avengers), representing high-reward opportunities to be members of the Avengers: Doomsday cast.
- Safe Harbors: Core MCU anchors Tom Holland and Benedict Cumberbatch are strong "Buy" candidates, as their narrative absence is highly improbable.
- ‘Superior’ speculation: Robert Downey Jr. returning as Iron Man is a worthy longshot bet based on comic precedents for flashbacks or multiverse variants.
- Trailer Drops: Ignore the March hype: split your strategy between an early drop at CinemaCon (April) and a later release (post-June), aligning with the typical three-month promotional window.
Whether it’s who will appear in Avengers: Doomsday, whether we’ll see Robert Downey Jr in a more familiar role than the promised Dr Doom, or when we’ll actually get to see a full trailer for one of the biggest films of the year: we’ve got analysis on where the smart money should be going for the Avengers: Doomsday prediction markets.
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Avengers: Doomsday Cast Prediction Market
Avengers: Doomsday Cast Prediction Market analysis
BUY: Tom Holland (Spider-Man) | ‘Yes’ at 75c | 75% Chance
Tom Holland as Spider-Man is the face of the MCU. While his screen time might be reduced, a complete absence (which the 25% "No" implies) is incredibly unlikely for the franchise lead, especially given his personal connection to the villain's face.
75c is cheap for a poster character.
BUY: Andrew Garfield (Spider-Man) | 17% Chance
There is a massive 70-point gap between Tobey Maguire (87%) and Andrew Garfield (17%). Historically (Spider-Man: No Way Home), these two are a package deal. If the "Legacy Spider-Man" plotline is active enough to justify Tobey at nearly 90%, it is highly improbable that Andrew is excluded.
The market is likely over-reacting to his recent denials (which he is famous for faking) or prioritizing Tobey as the "primary" cameo. At 17 cents on the dollar, this is a low-risk, high-reward bet that he joins Tobey.
AVOID: Jonathan Majors (Kang) | Yes at 20c | 20% Chance
Following his legal issues and subsequent firing by Disney in December 2023, Marvel pivoted entire phases of the MCU away from "The Kang Dynasty" to "Doomsday" centered around Robert Downey Jr’s Doctor Doom.
Buying at 20 cents implies a 1-in-5 chance he returns. This is wildly optimistic considering his best chance is to appear as a flashback. Even if Kang appears, it will likely be a new actor, a CGI creation, or a masked variant. Majors himself appearing is legally and PR-wise toxic for Disney. This stock should likely be near 0%.
BUY: Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop) | 50% Chance
Her Young Avengers teammates are trading significantly higher: Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang) is at 80% and Iman Vellani (Ms. Marvel) is at 78%.
There are reasons to be wary of this number - Steinfeld announced her pregnancy with NFL quarterback, Josh Allen in December 2025, and there’s a chance the Young Avengers team could find themselves pushed into the next film, Avengers: Secret Wars.
Kate Bishop is arguably the most popular and established member of that trio. It makes little narrative sense for the team to assemble (as implied by Newton/Vellani's odds) without her. The 28-30 point gap between her and her teammates is a market error.
BUY: Benedict Cumberbatch (Doctor Strange) | ‘Yes’ at 73c | 73% Chance
Doctor Strange, while no longer The Sorcerer Supreme, is the central figure of the "Multiverse Saga." The film is about incursions: a concept introduced in Dr Strange: Multiverse of Madness.
It is nearly impossible to tell this story without him. Buying him at 73% is buying a main character at a discount due to temporary market noise.
He has dropped 11 points over the previous days, likely due to a lack of focus in recent leaks.
'Avengers: Doomsday' cast prediction market history
Robert Downey Jr. back as Iron Man this year?
Analysis
Buy ‘Yes’ at 35c | 31.5% Chance
Trust me on this one: it’s worth hearing me out for a buy-low, high yield trade.
Marvel Studios have been more than willing to dive deep into the comic book lore for plot hooks for MCU films.
Case and point: the reveal in Captain America: Winter Soldier that Hydra was actually hidden in the upper echelons of S.H.I.E.L.D. was taken from the very poorly reviewed but actually lots-of-fun Secret Warriors limited run.
I might be the only person who read that book. It was great.
There are three books that play a role in this pick: What If? Iron Man: Demon in an Armor #1, Infamous Iron Man, and Superior Iron Man. Across the three titles we see Victor Von Doom stealing Tony Stark’s identity, steal Stark’s suit, and Iron Man portrayed as the antagonist.
My theory? In Victor Von Doom’s timeline, Iron Man, played by RDJ, was a villain. Von Doom defeats him and then uses magic to take over Stark’s body to gain access to the Extremis technology (shown in some form in Iron Man 3).
We’ll get to see the fight in flashback.
I told you it was worth hearing me out.
Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
Analysis
BUY: Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed? | 'No' at 78c | 73.5% Chance
Avengers: Doomsday has already faced two delays: first from May 2025 to May 2026, and then from May to December 2026.
Marvel Studios would be in really hot water if they don't hit the new release date of December 18. Having originally tent-polled the 2026 holiday season by scheduling Avengers 5, Disney now finds themselves sharing the spotlight and release date with Dune: Messiah. Though industry chatter indicates Warner Bros are likely to move the third installment of the sci-fi epic to avoid the MCU blockbuster.
When will the official trailer for Avengers: Doomsday be released?
This one is a real doozy.
The current volume in the market supports a trailer dropping some time in March 2026.
But we think there’s no real reason to believe that hype. Here’s the average times from first trailer drop to film release across a number of cross-sections of the Marvel anthology:
- Avengers films (1-4, Captain America: Civil War, Thunderbolts) - 94.3 days
- November/December release films (seven films)- 80.1 days
- Overall MCU anthology (37 films) - 100.1 days
- Overall MCU without Black Widow* (36 films) - 89.4 days
…That would indicate we can expect the trailer to drop around three months before the film releases in December 2026.
Here’s something else to think about: Marvel’s biggest superhero has a standalone film releasing in July when Spider-Man: Brand New Day releases. It’s reasonable to expect there’ll be minimal information released about Avengers: Doomsday before the film that will inevitably lead in to it releases.
Rumors circle that Disney is expected to show the first trailer at CinemaCon in April 2026, making an investment in ‘Before May 2026’ a viable contender.
Given the timing of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s release: I’d advise trading into both ‘Yes’ on Before May 2026 with a hedge on ‘No’ on Before June 2026.
*Due to COVID, there were 487 days between Black Widow’s trailer and actual release date.
Trading the Call Sheet: How to Play the Avengers Cast Markets
What if you could trade Hollywood rumors with the same precision as a tech stock? Prediction markets have turned the Avengers: Doomsday cast list, from confirmed legends to long-shot cameos into a tradable commodity, governed by the same laws of supply and demand as the stock exchange.
The Payout Ceiling: Binary Outcomes Every "Who will appear?" contract acts as a binary path. A share in Tom Holland appearing is ultimately worth $1.00 at settlement or it is worth nothing. This simple payout structure allows for more complex portfolio strategies than traditional wagering, letting you hedge a risky ‘Yes’ on a Multiverse variant with a ‘No’ on a scheduling-conflicted star.
Price Discovery and Probability The price you pay for a casting contract represents the market's current consensus. When the market prices Andrew Garfield at $0.17, it signals an approximate 17% implied probability of his appearance in the final cut. If you have information, perhaps tracking production schedules in London or spotting a leaked set photo, suggesting the real probability is closer to 50%, the market is effectively offering you a discount on the truth.
Market Liquidity and Freedom Unlike traditional sportsbooks that might "limit" winning players, prediction exchanges move with the action. You are trading alongside other fans and investors in real-time. This allows you to exit your position on Nicolas Cage or Patrick Stewart at any time before the premiere, locking in profits if a trailer drop or variety article causes their ‘Yes’ shares to spike.
Compliance and Security In the Avengers: Doomsday casting market, your choice of platform is a choice of regulatory comfort and depth. Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in the US, overseen by the CFTC. It provides a fully regulated environment for trading event contracts like the Avengers cast list, offering the consumer protections and transparency expected of a US financial institution.
'Avengers: Doomsday' Prediction Markets FAQs
A 98% rating in prediction markets is virtually synonymous with confirmation, usually implying that irrefutable proof like a set photo or call sheet has quietly leaked to high-volume bettors. While Marvel has not released an official statement, the market is pricing this as a certainty based on concrete evidence rather than vague speculation. You are no longer betting on a rumor, but on the accuracy of that specific leaked proof.
Her sudden jump to 97% is almost certainly a reaction to Robert Downey Jr.’s confirmed return as Doctor Doom, which necessitates her character’s emotional involvement in the story. "Insider" traders likely received word of a specific scene being filmed where Doom confronts Stark's former family, triggering the massive buy-in. In these markets, narrative necessity often drives prices up just as fast as physical evidence, and she is now narratively essential.
Most prediction market rulebooks explicitly state that a "Yes" requires a new, credited appearance, meaning archival footage or a background photograph generally does not count toward a payout. You must carefully read the specific "Rules" tab of the contract, as some markets might count a "likeness" while others strictly require a speaking role or screen credit. If the actor only appears in a flashback from 2008, the bet likely resolves to "No."
Market resolution sources are strictly defined in the rules, but typically a report from a major trade publication like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter is sufficient to trigger a "Yes" payout. Marvel does not need to tweet it themselves, as these "trades" are considered the industry record of truth for confirmed casting news. However, a rumor from a random Twitter account or blog will not resolve the market.
While his producer credit guarantees his name is on the poster, the betting market specifically asks about the character "Happy Hogan" appearing on screen. His 64% odds reflect a strong correlation with Gwyneth Paltrow’s return, as it is narratively unlikely for Pepper to appear without her head of security nearby. Traders are betting on this narrative package deal rather than his off-screen employment status with the studio.
Alan Cumming’s return as The Incredible Nightcrawler was confirmed in the infamous cast member chair YouTube stunt. This marks his second appearance as Kurt Wagner, and his first since X-Men 2 in 2003. He was revealed alongside a number of other original X-Men actors including Ian McKellen, Patrick Stewart, Rebecca Romijn, James Marsden and Kelsey Grammer. Channing Tatum will resume his role as Gambit, first seen in 'Deadpool and Wolverine'.
Nicolas Cage returning as Ghost Rider is a persistent fan-favorite rumor, but currently, it lacks the high-probability data backing seen for the core X-Men cast members. If he were a "secret cameo" of significant weight, we would likely see his odds creeping higher than the current speculative baseline. Until a credible trade report or set photo surfaces, betting on him is essentially gambling on a long-shot surprise.
