The holiday season is nearly upon us, and with it, the predictable, deep-blue tidal wave of a new James Cameron project. This Friday, the three-hour-plus cinematic event, Avatar: Fire and Ash, is set to land, and the only question remaining is exactly how many billions it will hoover up.
The prediction markets, of course, have already weighed in. Polymarket and Kalshi are currently treating the third Avatar film less like a movie and more like a political campaign, pitting it directly against Universal’s other December behemoth, the musical sensation Wicked: For Good.
We gathered box office and performance data on 17 different movie trilogies to see if there are any insights to be gathered from the Star Wars sequels, Lord of the Rings or Despicable Me.
Settle into your link unit and get ready to leap around Pandora once more: let’s dive into the Avatar 3 prediction markets!
Avatar 3 Prediction Markets
"Avatar: Fire And Ash" Rotten Tomatoes score
The first two Avatar films landed at 82% and *, maintaining remarkable consistency despite a 13-year gap. The Kalshi market, however, is pricing in a mild dose of franchise fatigue. Kalshi has set the line, with only a 41% chance that the score will resolve Above 75%.
Considering Avatar: The Way of Water landed just under 79%, this is the betting market giving James Cameron a firm, but gentle, nudge toward a score in the mid-70s. A 66% chance that the score will land Above 70% feels like a safe bet.
Given Cameron has only dropped the score by three points between his first two films, the expectation of a 10-15 point drop, which would put it below 65%, seems a bit aggressive - unless the new "Ash People" plotline really sets critics on fire, for all the wrong reasons.
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office
Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $134 million, a fantastic number for a December release with the kind of cinematic 'legs' that could run a marathon. The original, Avatar, famously had a relatively modest $77 million opening, though it went on to conquer the world.
The market currently suggests the domestic opening for Avatar 3 is heavily skewed towards the lower end of expectations:
| Outcome | % Chance | Equivalent US odds |
|---|---|---|
| <$90m | 26% | +285 |
| $90-101m | 41% | +144 |
| $101-112m | 18% | +456 |
| $112-123m | 12% | +733 |
| >$123m | 6% | +1567 |
The overwhelming 41% likelihood that the film opens between $90M and $101M suggests traders are ignoring the Film 2 trend.
The Way of Water saw an opening weekend jump of 174% over the original, making it a statistical monster akin to Toy Story 2’s massive jump.
Where would a sub-$101m opening weekend place Avatar 3 in 2025’s top films?
| Header 1 | Header 2 | Header 3 | Header 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Minecraft Movie | April 6, 2025 | $162,753,003 |
| 2 | Wicked: For Good | November 23, 2025 | $147,004,640 |
| 3 | Lilo & Stitch | May 25, 2025 | $146,016,175 |
| 4 | Superman | July 13, 2025 | $125,021,735 |
| 5 | The Fantastic Four: First Steps | July 27, 2025 | $117,644,828 |
| 6 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | December 22, 2025 | TBC |
| 7 | Zootopia 2 | November 30, 2025 | $100,262,540 |
| 8 | Jurassic World Rebirth | July 6, 2025 | $92,016,065 |
| 9 | Captain America: Brave New World | February 16, 2025 | $88,842,603 |
| 10 | How to Train Your Dragon | June 15, 2025 | $84,633,315 |
| 11 | The Conjuring: Last Rites | September 7, 2025 | $84,006,121 |
A sub-$101M opening for the threequel would be a massive 25% drop from the second film. It looks like the prediction market is hedging against 'Disney Fatigue' and a lack of cultural relevance compared to the sheer fan power driving the Wicked crowd.
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?
The greatest box office drama of the year may not be on screen, but on the prediction market for the domestic opening weekend. Polymarket has created a fascinating head-to-head between the two biggest December releases: Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good.
Polymarket is asking the simple question: Which film will have the bigger domestic opening weekend?
| Outcome | % Chance | Equivalent US odds |
|---|---|---|
| Wicked: For Good | 98.2% | -5000 |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 2.5% | +3900 |
This may seem crazy-lopsided... and it is. The Avatar films are endurance runners, not sprinters. The Wicked: For Good $147m opening weekend seems pretty unachievable, but that's not the Avatar plan. They rely on word-of-mouth, repeat viewings in premium formats (IMAX, 3D, etc.), and a consistent multi-week haul - the cinematic equivalent of a high-mileage marathon runner.
Oh, and Disney are apparently packaging different Avengers: Doomsday trailers with Avatar 3 over the first four weeks of release: that's going to definitely net them some sales to avid Marvel fans who'll pay four times to see the trailer alone.
Wicked: For Good is a 'fan-event' musical that front-loads heavily, driven by immediate cultural fanfare and the sheer might of Ariana Grande's fanbase.
Our trilogy data shows that franchises like Lord of the Rings and The Dark Knight achieve peak gross with the third film; a massive opening weekend is not the Avatar playbook.
Therefore, betting on a slight underperformance from Avatar 3's opening in favour of the Wicked sequel’s momentum is a shrewd, risk-adjusted play. The Na'vi might win the war, but Elphaba is priced to win the opening weekend battle.
