Week 7 in the CFL kicks off with a pair of games on Thursday night, ending with a clash between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and BC Lions.
The Ticats finally won their first game of the season last week but will have a much tougher task on the road against a Lions squad with just one loss on their resume.
CFL betting lines opened with the Lions as 7.5-point home favorites for this clash at BC Place. Here are our best free Tiger-Cats vs. Lions picks and predictions for July 21.
Tiger-Cats vs Lions odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Lions at -7.5 with the total listed at 51.5. As of Tuesday afternoon, the numbers are the same at many books, but some have the Lions as high as -9.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Tiger-Cats vs Lions Week 7 predictions
Predictions made on 7/19/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Tiger-Cats vs Lions game info
• Location: BC Place, Vancouver, BC
• Date: Thursday, July 21, 2022
• Kickoff: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Tiger-Cats at Lions betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Boseko Lokombo LB (Out), Sione Teuhema DL (Out), Jalon Edwards-Cooper Sr. DB (Out), Woody Baron DT (Out), Steven Richardson DT (Out), Bryan Burnham WR (Out), David Knevel OL (Out).
Lions: Simoni Lawrence LB (Out), Papi White WR (Out), Kyle Saxelid OL (Out), Lemar Durant WR (Out), Cariel Brooks DB (Out), Alex Fontana C (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1 in the Lions' last 10 games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Lions.
Tiger-Cats vs Lions picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Tiger-Cats entered this season with Grey Cup expectations but have gotten off to a terrible start. After four consecutive losses to begin the year, they finally won last Saturday, but their 25-23 home victory against the Redblacks was far from impressive. They needed a touchdown in the final minute to take the lead and failed to cover an 8-point spread at home against an Ottawa team that was led by an error-prone backup QB.
Now they'll face off against one of the league's best pivots in Nathan Rourke, who has spearheaded the Lions to a league-best 466.3 yards and 39.8 points per game.
The Lions were unstoppable in their first three games of the year but were finally derailed in Week 5 against the defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers. A big reason that the Bombers cruised to victory was that they won the turnover battle with four takeaways and not a single giveaway.
That's the sort of thing that can tend to happen against a beast of a roster like Winnipeg, but now the Lions face a Ticats team that is last in the league in that category and has coughed up the ball a whopping 20 times.
The Ticats offense has been pathetic this season, ranking second-last in the league with 5.7 yards per play and last in second-down conversion rate. Hamilton QB Dane Evans has been throwing for plenty of yards but has been a turnover machine and ranks eighth among all starting quarterbacks in the league in pass efficiency rating.
The BC secondary has done an excellent job at preventing plays in the passing game, surrendering the fewest completions of 30+ yards and allowing just three touchdowns while limiting opposing QBs to a league-low efficiency rating of just 77.2.
The Lions have had a bye week to lick their wounds and prepare for this game while the Ti-Cats are traveling across the country on just four days of rest. Combine that with BC's terrific play in the passing game on both sides of the ball, and we're willing to lay the points with the home side.
Prediction: BC Lions -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Rourke was held in check by Winnipeg's opportunistic defense, but he still finished with 278 passing yards and three touchdowns in that contest. The 24-year-old has been incredible this season, completing 80% of his passes for 1,355 yards and 12 touchdowns in four games while adding another 180 yards and three scores on the ground.
The Lions' running game has also been effective, with James Butler rushing for 243 yards and an average of 4.9 yards per carry.
The Ticats' defense is strong on paper and does a solid job in most statistical areas, but they rank second-last in the league with 28.2 ppg allowed due to sloppy turnovers from their offense. If Rourke and this deadly Leos' offense get short fields to work with, they'll be sure to make the Ticats pay.
That said, Hamilton is capable of big plays through the air, and Evans actually ranks second in the league (behind Rourke) with 284.6 passing yards per game. The Ticats have scored at least 25 points in three of their last four games, with the lone outlier during that span coming on the road against the (you guessed it) Blue Bombers in Week 3.
Even when other teams were struggling to put up points earlier in the season, BC was firing on all cylinders. Now offenses across the league are starting to get in sync, and Overs have gone 10-1 in the last three weeks. I'm leaning towards the Over on a big total here.
Prediction: Over 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This line would have seemed crazy before the season started, but with how both teams have played so far, it makes plenty of sense. The Lions have blown out plenty of opponents, and the Tiger-Cats have sometimes looked extremely sloppy.
As of Tuesday afternoon, this line is still at -7.5 for BC, but it will likely move to the neighborhood of -9 by kickoff. Grab this number now before it increases closer to game time.
Pick: Lions -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
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