Week 14 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Calgary Stampeders and Edmonton Elks. These teams had a thrilling showdown in Calgary on Labour Day, with the Stamps scoring a touchdown with 20 seconds left in the fourth quarter to win 35-31.
CFL betting odds expect another close battle between these Alberta rivals with the Elks currently listed as slim home favorites for the rematch. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Stampeders vs. Elks on September 9.
Stampeders vs Elks best odds
Stampeders vs Elks picks and predictions
We got ourselves a winning bet last week when we predicted the Stampeders and Elks to go Over their total of 46.5. This marked the seventh time in the last eight meetings between these rivals that the Over has cashed.
Calgary quarterback Jake Maier has been inconsistent with his accuracy this year, but he once again proved that he can carve up mediocre defenses. Edmonton's defense is certainly mediocre, ranking last in the CFL in opponent pass efficiency rating (101.5) and takeaways (18). Maier took advantage of that in Week 13, throwing for 315 yards in Calgary's comeback win.
The Stamps also picked up 107 yards on the ground, which was expected against a brutal Edmonton run defense that surrenders a league-worst 138.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. The Elks had just 156 passing yards on Monday, but they piled up 239 yards on the ground, with Kevin Brown rushing for 89 yards on 12 carries and quarterback Tre Ford exploding for 135 yards on 11 carries.
Despite extremely low passing numbers in that contest, Ford has a live arm and some dangerous downfield targets — including 2022 East Division MOP Geno Lewis. Ford completed 15-of-18 passes for 317 yards against the Redblacks in Week 12, so expect some positive regression from him when it comes to throwing the ball.
Ford has given this Elks offense a massive boost but their defense remains one of the worst in the CFL. The Stamps have more than enough weapons to take advantage of that, so I'm grabbing the Over once again.
My best bet: Over 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
Stampeders vs Elks spread and Over/Under analysis
The total closed at 46.5 for last week's matchup but opened at 48.5 following Monday's shootout. With the Elks going from a complete laughing stock to suddenly competitive over the last couple of weeks, they actually opened as 2-point chalk for this showdown.
It's a bit strange to see the Elks as faves in this clash since their Week 12 win against the Redblacks snapped an ugly 22-game home losing streak where they went 4-18 against the spread. They've also lost nine of the last 10 meetings with their Alberta rivals, including four defeats in a row at Commonwealth Stadium.
This line is a reflection of the poor season that the Stamps are having, as they are just 4-8 straight up but have covered in four of their last five contests. Maier was a turnover machine earlier in the year but he had played very well as a spot starter over the last few years. If he cleans up his decision-making, this squad could be very profitable for bettors down the stretch.
Stampeders vs Elks trend to know
The Stampeders are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four trips to Edmonton, and the Over cashed in all of those contests. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Elks.
Stampeders vs Elks game info
| Location: | The Brick Field at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, September 9, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Stampeders vs Elks key injuries
Stampeders: Dedrick Mills RB (Questionable), Titus Wall DB (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out), Mike Moore DT (Out), James Vaughters DE (Out), Hugh Thornton OT (Out), Bryce Bell OT (Out).
Elks: David Foucault OL (Questionable), A.C. Leonard DE (Questionable), Louchiez Purefoy DB (Questionable), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), J-Min Pelley DT (Out), Daniel Ross DT (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
