Stampeders vs Argonauts Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Calgary Sinks Boatmen

Calgary is coming off a heartbreaking fourth quarter meltdown against the BC Lions, but we like them to get back on the horse Saturday at BMO Field against Toronto. Read more in our Stampeders vs. Argonauts betting picks.

Last Updated: Aug 19, 2022 3:35 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Week 11 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday as the Toronto Argonauts host the Calgary Stampeders at BMO Field. Both teams are coming off bitter losses where they squandered a lead in the fourth quarter, and they'll try to get back in the win column on Saturday night.

Here are our best free Stampeders vs. Argonauts picks and predictions for Saturday, August 20. 

Stampeders vs Argonauts odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Stampeders installed as 2-point road faves with the Over/Under set at 49.5. Both lines have seen slight movement, with Calgary's line moving to -2.5 and the total ticking up to 50.0 as of Friday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Stampeders vs Argonauts Week 11 predictions

Predictions made on 8/19/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Stampeders vs Argonauts game info

Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Stampeders at Argonauts betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Stampeders: Ka'Deem Carey RB (Out), Malik Henry WR (Out), Richie Sindani WR (Out), T.J. Rayam DT (Out), Darius Williams DB (Questionable), Tre Roberson CB (Out), Jameer Thurman LB (Out), Sean McEwen C (Out), Branden Dozier DB (Out), Javien Elliott DB (Out).
Argonauts: Andrew Harris RB (Out), Dejon Allen OT (Probable), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Cam Phillips WR (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out), Shaquille Richardson DB (Out), Isiah Cage OT (Out), Trevon Tate OT (Out), Robert Priester DB (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Stampeders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Argonauts.

Stampeders vs Argonauts picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Stampeders had a 33-18 lead midway through the third quarter last week before letting the Lions claw their way back to a 41-40 victory. 

That defeat dropped Calgary's record to 5-3, with its only losses coming against the Grey Cup favorite Blue Bombers and the now 7-1 Lions.

The Argos are atop the weak East Division with a 4-4 mark and lost to the Ticats 34-27 last week. Hamilton scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter despite rolling with its backup and third-string quarterback.

Both of these teams have been solid but haven't really stood out in any one area. However, the Stamps have more offense balance thanks to a strong running game that averages 110.5 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. Although Calgary running back Ka'Deem Carey is likely out, his backup Dedrick Mills has looked more than capable in relief.

The Argos are last in the league with an average of just 82 rushing yards per game, and they'll be even worse with starting running back Andrew Harris out for the year with a pectoral injury. 

There's a pretty big dropoff from Harris to his backups, and Toronto's banged-up offensive line hasn't been opening holes in the run game or protecting quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson. 

Two other areas where the Stamps have the advantage are special teams and turnovers. The Stamps are tied for second in the league with a plus-10 turnover margin, while the Boatmen have a turnover margin of minus-6.

The Stamps also have one of the better kick-coverage units in the league, boast the most accurate kicker, and lead the league in yards per kick return. Meanwhile, Toronto's return game has been unremarkable, and its coverage teams allow a league-high 13.7 yards per punt return. 

In a game with the line set at less than a field goal, special teams and turnovers could be what makes the difference.

Prediction: Stampeders -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell has a pair of MOP and Grey Cup MVP trophies on his mantle, but he's been more of a game manager than a game breaker in recent weeks. 

Over his last four games, he's averaging 187.3 passing yards per game on just 6.3 yards per pass attempt. While a couple of duds against Winnipeg's elite defense are understandable, a brutal performance against Ottawa two weeks ago is less so.

Mitchell will again be without his top receiver, Malik Henry (thigh), and All-Star center Sean McEwen (ankle). 

Despite scoring 40 points last week, the Stamps garnered just 86 yards of offense. They ended up needing a pick-six and a pair of massive kickoff returns to keep pace with the Lions.

That said, their defense has been able to contain average offenses and should be able to sell out to stop the pass since they don't have to worry about Toronto's non-existent ground game.

Prediction: Under 50 (-110 at FanDuel)

Best bet

This isn't the strongest of leans because I think the oddsmakers got this line pretty bang on, but I do feel like the Stamps are the better team when it comes to most matchups.

The one area where the Argos may have the edge is at QB, but Bethel-Thompson remains inconsistent and doesn't have the proven track record of Mitchell.

Calgary also plays well on the road and won't be affected by a BMO Field environment which isn't anywhere nearly as tough to play in as the venues out West. 

I'll lay the chalk on the superior team in what is a relatively short line. 

PickStampeders -2.5 (-110 at bet365)

CFL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Stampeders vs. Argonauts picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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