Elks vs Redblacks Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Bad Defenses Spring Basement Flood

The Elks have been arguably the worst team in the CFL this season, but is the margin between them and the Redblacks enough to spot 4.5 points? We're having a hard time buying it — see why in our Week 11 preview.

Last Updated: Aug 16, 2022 12:30 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Week 11 of the CFL season kicks off on Friday night with a clash between the Edmonton Elks and the Ottawa Redblacks.

These have been the two worst teams in the league but the 1-7 Redblacks are expected to take care of business at home in this contest, opening as 4-point favourites. Meanwhile, the 2-7 Elks will try to finally turn the corner in a rebuilding year under head coach Chris Jones.

Here are our best free Elks vs. Redblacks picks and predictions for August 19. 

Elks vs Redblacks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the Redblacks installed as 4-point home faves with the Over/Under at 48 or 48.5 depending on the book. As of Tuesday morning the line shifted to Ottawa -4.5 while the total has stayed steady.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Elks vs Redblacks Week 11 predictions

Predictions made on 8/16/2022 at 11:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Elks vs Redblacks game info

Location: TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON
Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Elks at Redblacks betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Elks: David Beard C (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), James Wilder RB (Out), Christian Rector DT (Out), Tre Watson LB (Out), Tre Ford QB (Out).
Redblacks: Money Hunter HB (Out), Adam Auclair LB (Out), William Powell RB (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), RJ Harris WR (Out) Praise Martin-Oguike DL (Out), Kwaku Boateng DE (Out), Randy Richards OT (Out), Frankie Griffin LB (Questionable).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Elks vs Redblacks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Redblacks are coming off a bye and in Week 9 they fell 17-3 to the Stampeders. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Evans completed just 10 of 21 passes for 66 yards and recently acquired veteran Nick Arbuckle replaced him midway through the third quarter. Arbuckle was a more efficient 17-for-23 for 186 yards but was picked off twice. 

It was an extremely disappointing return to reality for the 24-year-old Evans, who had looked very good in his previous two games and he's expected to start on Friday although likely with a short leash.

Regardless of who starts at pivot for the Redblacks, they should find the going easier against a historically bad Elks defense. That said, there is reason to think that Edmonton holds value as an underdog. 

The Elks are coming off a game against the Roughriders where they were extremely competitive despite a double-digit loss. They limited the Riders to 261 yards of offense and lost due to some sloppy (and somewhat questionable) penalties down the stretch. 

Quarterback Taylor Cornelius also looked solid in defeat and his top target Kenny Lawler will be able to stretch the field against a weak pair of Redblacks corners.  Although Cornelius has below-average accuracy, he has a massive frame with a big arm and can pick up tough yards on the ground. 

The Elks have been the worst team in the league on offense, defense, and special teams, but the Redblacks haven't been a whole better.

4.5 points is simply too much chalk to swallow for a Redblacks team with the worst record in the league.

Prediction: Elks +4.5 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Although Evans was terrible in his last game two weeks ago, he was named one of the CFL's Top Performers in Week 8 and piled up 349 total yards and three touchdowns (one passing, two on the ground) against Montreal in Week 7.

If Arbuckle gets the start instead, his poor decision-making should be somewhat offset by an Elks secondary that can't play the ball. Edmonton's defense has just six passes defended this season — a whopping 13 fewer than Ottawa and Toronto who are tied for second-worst in the league in that category. 

Despite coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season last week against the Riders, the Elks still ended up surrendering 34 points.

Edmonton is dead-last in the CFL in virtually every defensive category; points per game allowed (36), yards per game allowed (379.1), yards allowed per pass attempt (10.0), yards allowed per rush attempt (5.4), sacks (14), yards allowed on first down (7.1), and second-down conversion rate (53%).

That said, Ottawa's pass defense has been almost as bad, with the Redblacks second-last in the league with 9.6 yards allowed per pass attempt.

I'm expecting the quarterbacks on both sides to play better than usual and leaning towards the Over here. 

Prediction: Over 48 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

The Elks certainly aren't a good team, but they tend to travel pretty well and they seem to be a bit underrated in this spot. While they've been clobbered by the cream of the crop in the West, they've won both of their contests against East Division foes this season, beating the Ti-Cats and Alouettes on the road. 

They also showed improvement on defense last week, and Cornelius is the sort of hard-nosed, strong-armed quarterback that could move the ball on Ottawa's defense.

The Elks were a bit unlucky (and had some bad calls against them) against the Riders and they have value as an underdog that could pull off the victory in this spot.

Pick: Elks moneyline (+175 at FanDuel)

CFL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Elks vs. Redblacks picks, you could win $90.23 on a $10 bet?

Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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