The BC Lions are well rested coming off their bye week and travel to Commonwealth Stadium to take on the West Division-leading Edmonton Elks on Friday night. The Elks are 3.5-point favorites in the latest CFL odds, but the Lions are finally starting to get healthy after an injury-riddled opening month of the season.
My Lions vs. Elks predictions expect Edmonton to avenge its first loss of the season to BC and even up the season series.
Check out my full CFL picks for Friday, July 17.
Who will win Lions vs Elks: Elks moneyline (-170)
Edmonton opened the week as a three-point home favorite over BC and, at that number, I'd be willing to lay the points at -112.
As I wrote on Monday, I'd like Edmonton a lot at -2.5, and I'd even be willing to take my chances with the dreaded push at -3, but the line has since moved to -3.5, and that's a bridge too far for me.
Justin Rankin has averaged an absurd 7.66 yards per carry this season, eclipsing 100 rushing yards in four of five games. His lone dud came against this same Lions defense two weeks ago when he was held to just 19 yards.
My model projects Edmonton for 5.42 yards per carry this week, but they'll face the CFL's top rushing defense, which has allowed just 4.3 yards per carry. That should encourage the Elks to lean into their running game, control possession, and keep BC's explosive passing attack on the sidelines.
Since my preferred spread is unlikely to return, I'm happy settling for the Edmonton moneyline while keeping an eye on the market in case it drifts back toward the key -2.5 number later in the week.
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Lions vs Elks total prediction: Under 61.5 (-115)
Since my early lean on this game was published on Monday, the total has climbed from 60.5 to 61.5, and I'm happy to grab the extra point while sticking with the Under.
My model projects these offenses to average the two highest rushing efficiencies on the Week 7 slate (BC 5.44 YPC, Edmonton 5.42 YPC, league average 5.04). That suggests both teams will lean on the ground game, shortening possessions and reducing the overall pace.
Edmonton has stayed Under the total in four of its five games this season, with the lone Over coming in a wild overtime game played in monsoon conditions against Montreal.
BC's only Under this season also came against Edmonton back in Week 5. While the Lions have surrendered 34.25 points per game overall, this matchup profiles differently thanks to both teams' rushing strengths and the possibility of adverse weather.
The increasing chance of thunderstorms Friday night in Edmonton is simply the icing on the cake. I liked Under 60.5 earlier in the week, so Under 61.5 is an even stronger position.
COVERS INTEL: My model projects Justin Rankin to account for roughly one-third of Edmonton's total offensive production in a run-heavy script that favors an Elks victory and the Under.Lions vs Elks same-game parlay
Edmonton's tendency to play lower-scoring games, the threat of thunderstorms, and both teams' projected success on the ground create a strong correlation between an Elks victory and the Under.
Lions vs Elks SGP
- Edmonton moneyline
- Under 61.5
Lions vs Elks weather
The forecast calls for temperatures around 25°C with light winds of 15-25 km/h, but scattered thunderstorms are possible throughout Friday night. If the weather turns ugly, it further favors Edmonton's rushing attack and the Under.
Lions vs Elks odds
- Spread: Lions +3.5 | Elks -3.5
- Moneyline: Lions +142 | Elks -170
- Over/Under: Over 61.5 | Under 61.5
Lions vs Elks key injuries
Lions: Stanley Berryhill (WR, OUT), Jevon Cottoy (WR, OUT), Joshua Coker (OL, OUT), Christophe Beaulieu (DB, OUT), Garry Peters (DB, OUT).
Elks: David Beard (OL, OUT), Brett Boyko (OL, OUT), Royce Metchie (DB, OUT), Jordan Williams (DL, OUT), Joe Robustelli (WR, Doubtful).
Lions vs Elks trend
Edmonton is 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games and now returns home after beating BC earlier this season.
How to watch Lions vs Elks and game info
| Location | Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, AB |
| Date | Friday, July 17, 2026 |
| Kick-off | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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