Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Cats Catch the Bird

Two rivals with a track record of playing gritty, low-scoring games lock horns Saturday. See why we're expecting history to repeat itself for CFL betting when the Alouettes host the Tiger-Cats.

Last Updated: Aug 18, 2022 9:54 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Both just a game behind the East-leading Toronto Argonauts, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Montreal Alouettes will duel for positioning in a wide-open division when they clash at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Hamilton is fresh off a victory over Toronto, while Montreal just pulled off a 20-17 overtime win in Week 10 to earn the unique distinction as the only team to beat 9-1 Winnipeg thus far in the season.

The Als will carry the momentum from their surprise win home to Montreal to face rival Hamilton, who beat them by a touchdown in Week 8. Can the Als pay back their division foe and jockey for top positioning in the East?

Below are our best free Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes picks and predictions for Aug. 20.

Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line opened with the Alouettes as a 2.5-point home favorite and moved a half-point in their favor by midweek. The Over/Under has remained steady at 48.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until kickoff and be sure to check out the full CFL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes Week 11 predictions

Predictions made on 8/18/2022 at 8:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes game info

Location: Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN

Tiger-Cats at Alouettes betting preview

Weather

Key injuries

Tiger-Cats: Dane Evans QB (Questionable), Jumal Rolle DB (Out), Ciante Evans DB (Out), Simoni Lawrence LB (Out).

Alouettes: Eugene Lewis WR (Questionable), William Stanback RB (Out), Greg Reid DB (Out), Sean Jamieson OL (Questionable).

Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The last four games between these teams have gone Under the points total. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes.

Tiger-Cats vs Alouettes picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Montreal will be feeling particularly confident after its road upset of the top team in the league, and now faces a Hamilton squad it lost to 24-17 back in Week 8 in Ontario.

In their previous matchup, Montreal won the time of possession battle and outgained Hamilton 378 to 352, but the Als were called for seven penalties for 89 yards and allowed five sacks for a loss of 34.

That game, Montreal QB Trevor Harris went 25 of 41 for 288 yards and a touchdown, while also leading the Alouettes in rushing with 39 yards. Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans went 13 of 18 for 206 yards and a score, but backup quarterback Matt Shiltz piled up the most yards on the ground, accounting for 42 of the Ti-Cats’ 102, in addition to completing 7 of 10 passes for 44 yards.

Shiltz, who was with Montreal for the last four seasons, may get the start for Hamilton if Evans remains sidelined with a shoulder injury he sustained in Week 9.

Against Toronto last week, Shiltz was 14 of 19 for 176 yards, and threw one touchdown and an interception, as the ground game took focus against Toronto’s bottom-half rushing defense.

Montreal is even worse against the run (113.2 yards allowed per game), so the Ti-Cats will likely stick to a similar gameplan.

Backup QB Jamie Newman ran for 55 yards and a touchdown on seven carries in the victory over Toronto, while running back Sean Thomas-Erlington found paydirt late in the fourth quarter to break open a seven-point lead.

Montreal got its surprise win over Winnipeg behind a strong effort from its defense, which got after quarterback Zach Collaros and sacked him five times. The stop unit forced Collaros to fumble on Montreal’s 38-yard line with nearly eight minutes in the fourth quarter and held Winnipeg to one touchdown in each half.

Backup quarterback Dominique Davis scored twice for the Alouettes on a pair of QB sneaks, and kicker David Cote sealed the win in overtime with a 43-yard field goal.

Montreal will bring the energy from that hard-fought win before their fans at Memorial Stadium and come out strong against the Ticats, but expect another close, back-and-forth battle against a Hamilton team that overcame adversity to get an important division win in Week 10.

Prediction: Hamilton +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams rank in the Top 3 in pass defense, and with Evans potentially sidelined, Hamilton should struggle even more through the air. The Ti-Cats were able to rely on their rushing attack against Toronto and can do the same against the second-worst run defense in the league.

The last time the points total exceeded 48 points between these two was in a 38-26 win by Hamilton back in October 2019. In the four games since, the result has not surpassed 43.

The Ticats average just 21.7 points per contest (third-fewest in the league), while the Als rank fifth with 25.7 points per game.

With both teams likely to keep the ball low to the ground, expect the Under to hit for the fifth straight meeting between these rivals.

Prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Best bet

Montreal did a decent job of protecting Harris in Week 10, but the Ticats were especially good at frustrating the quarterback the last time they met.

In his last three games, which came against the Top 2 defenses in the league, Harris averaged a 63% completion percentage and totaled as many passing touchdowns (two) as interceptions. Montreal scored no more than 20 points in any of those games.

Harris is likely in for another shaky outing and will be forced to use his legs to move the chains against a sturdy Hamilton defense.

In their last five matchups, dating back to October 2019, the Als have averaged 17.6 points against Hamilton and have committed 11 turnovers across those outings.

The Cats will hold the Als under 27 points in this one.

Pick: Alouettes team total Under 26.5 (-116 at FanDuel)

CFL parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s CFL Tiger-Cats vs. Alouettes picks, you could win $57.87 on a $10 bet?

Use our CFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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