Elks vs Blue Bombers Week 18 Picks and Predictions: Winnipeg Overvalued Against Edmonton

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are favored by nearly two full touchdowns, their largest spread of the season, against the Edmonton Elks. While the Bombers should win, they also tend to play conservatively with leads and won't blow Edmonton away.

Last Updated: Oct 6, 2022 12:39 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers welcome the Edmonton Elks to IG Field in Week 18 of CFL action on Saturday.

The two-time defending Grey Cup champion Blue Bombers could clinch the top seed in the West with a win while the 4-11 Elks are simply hoping to head into the offseason with some positive momentum. 

This is the biggest spread of the entire season with CFL betting lines hitting the board with Bombers installed as 13.5-point home favorites and the Over/Under at 50.5. Here are my best free Elks vs. Blue Bombers CFL picks and predictions for October 8. 

Lions vs Argonauts best odds

Elks vs Blue Bombers picks and predictions

Typically, IG Field is a very tough venue for visiting teams to play in but the Elks have actually performed well on the road this season, it's at home where they get routinely blown out.

Sure, shutting down All-Star wideout Kenny Lawler for the season hurts but Edmonton played without him for all of September and managed to go 2-1 ATS while rolling up more than 400 yards in back-to-back games against Calgary and Saskatchewan. 

The Bombers are clearly the best team in the league but they've had plenty of close games and this is easily their biggest spread of the year. The previous largest spread was a -9 line against Montreal on August 11 and they ended up losing that game outright. 

This is a very good team on both sides of the ball but they have a tendency to play conservatively once they get a lead and that makes it tough to cover such massive spreads. Especially against an Edmonton squad that has been much more competitive lately.

My best bet: Elks +13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Elks vs Blue Bombers spread analysis

The Blue Bombers dismantled the Roughriders 31-13 last week to bounce back from an upset loss against the Tiger-Cats. Winnipeg's last three wins have all come against the Riders and the Bombers have a 13-2 record and a three-game lead atop the West Division. All they have to do is win one more game and have the Lions lose at least once to clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. 

The Bombers offense has been explosive with reigning Most Outstanding Player Zach Collaros spreading the ball around despite injuries at wideout. Meanwhile, Brady Oliveira has been running the ball effectively behind a road-grading offensive line. Although Winnipeg's defense isn't as statistically dominant as it was in the last two seasons it's still holding foes to a league-best 22.1 points per game. 

These teams faced off all the way back in Week 7 with the Bombers beating the Elks 24-10 at Commonwealth Stadium. That said, while the Elks are still the worst team in the West, they've made major strides since then. 

Quarterback Taylor Cornelius still struggles with his accuracy at times but has a big frame with a strong arm and is capable of making plays with his feet. He's also building chemistry with a pair of CFL newcomers in running back Kevin Brown and wideout Dillon Mitchell, who have quickly become dangerous weapons. 

The Elks are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games and only one of their defeats during that span came by double-digits. Although they lost to the Als last week, they had an 18-17 lead in the fourth quarter and were threatening at the goal line before a deflected pass from Cornelius was returned 100 yards for the game-winning score. 

Elks vs Blue Bombers Over/Under analysis

The Bombers defense has had a bend-but-don't-break approach all season and despite allowing the fewest points in the league, they haven't been that impressive. 

They are a modest fourth in the league in yards per play (6.3) and yards per pass attempt (8.0) allowed while ranking second-last in sacks and tying for last in average yards allowed on first down (7.0).

Winnipeg traded for defensive back Alden Darby on Tuesday to improve its stop unit and while he will immediately contribute, his acquisition will be somewhat offset by the recent losses of Nick Taylor and Demerio Houston in their secondary. 

The Elks defense was historically bad at the beginning of the year. Although they still aren't good on that side of the ball, they've been playing much better and head coach Chris Jones seems to have identified the guys who fit his system. Through its first eight games of the season, Edmonton had surrendered a whopping 377.5 yards per game, but in seven games since has allowed just 322.3 ypg.

Elks vs Blue Bombers trend to know

The Elks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Lions vs. Argonauts.

Elks vs Blue Bombers game info

Location: IG Field, Winnipeg, MB
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m.
TV: TSN

Elks vs Blue Bombers key injuries

Elks: Emmanuel Arceneaux WR (Questionable), Jake Ceresna DT (Questionable), Ed Gainey DB (Questionable), Kenny Lawler WR (Out), Tim Bonner DL (Out), Aaron Grymes S (Out), Makana Henry DT (Out), Nyles Morgan LB (Out), James Wilder Jr. RB (Out), Tony Washington OT (Out)
Bombers: Drew Wolitarsky WR (Questionable), Stanley Bryant LT (Questionable), Jackson Jeffcoat DE (Questionable), Casey Sayles DT (Questionable), Nick Taylor DB (Out), Demerio Houston DB (Out), Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Kyrie Wilson OLB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Elks vs Blue Bombers weather

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