Week 16 in the CFL begins Tuesday night as the Edmonton Elks take on the Toronto Argonauts.
The Argos have already wrapped up home-field advantage in the Eastern Final, while the Elks were eliminated from the postseason 10 days ago but will have to play twice this week. CFL betting lines have the Argos installed as 7.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 48.
Here are our best free Elks vs. Argos picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 16, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Editors note: This preview was published before the Argos announced that several starters would rest, shifting the line to Toronto -3.5 and dropping the total to 45.
Elks vs Argonauts odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Elks vs Argonauts picks
Picks made on 11/15/2021 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Elks vs Argonauts game info
• Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, November 16, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Elks at Argonauts betting preview
Weather
Key injuries
Elks: Greg Ellingson WR (Questionable), Mike Moore DL (Out), SirVincent Rogers OT (Out), Colin Kelly OT (Out), Jonathan Mincy DB (Out).
Argonauts: Ricky Collins WR (Out), DaVaris Daniels WR (Out), Chandler Worthy WR (Out), Henoc Muamba LB(Out), Kurleigh Gittens Jr. WR (Out), Cordarro Law DE, Kony Ealy DL (Questionable), Jamal Peters DB (Questionable), Dexter McCoil LB (Out), Junior Turner DL (Out), Charleston Hughes DE (Out), Peter Nicastro C (Out), Jamal Campbell OT (Out), Drake Nevis DT (Out), Eric Rogers WR (Out), Daniel Braverman WR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-2 in the Argonauts' last eight games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Argonauts.
Elks vs Argonauts predictions
Elks +7.5 (-110)
The entire 2021 CFL season must seem like a bad joke for the Elks and their fans. In their first year with their new nickname (and seemingly John Deere-inspired logo), the Elks didn't win a single game at home, were the only team to lose to the woeful Redblacks (doing so twice), traded away their starting quarterback midseason, and were hit hard by COVID-19. And now, the scheduling gods have decided to prolong their pain like some tragic Greek hero by giving them two games in the final week of the season with the first coming against the red-hot Argonauts.
The Argos are peaking at the right time and are fresh off an impressive 31-12 victory over the Tiger-Cats for their sixth win in seven games. That said, four of those victories came by three or fewer points so it's tough to trust them as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
Getting up on freezing Alberta mornings is hard enough even when you have something to play for, but Edmonton has actually been playing hard recently despite its forgettable season. And although they've lost eight in a row, they've covered the spread in three of their last four.
Since the Argos' next scheduled game isn't until December 5, we expect many of their starters to play in order to prevent too much rust from setting in. However, they might be rested in the second half, and even those who stay in the game could be going through the motions with first place locked up.
That has let-down spot for the Argos, or a back-door cover by the Elks, written all over it.
Over 48.5 (-110)
The Elks have been hit hard with injuries to the skill positions in the last two weeks, with top receivers (Greg Ellingson, Derel Walker) and starting running back (James Wilder Jr.) all sitting out. Weirdly enough, that might have helped. Quarterback Taylor Cornelius, running back Walter Fletcher, and wide receiver Jalen Tolliver are all rookies motivated to claim spots in the lineup.
The Elks traded for QB Nick Arbuckle a few weeks ago and Cornelius has since put together his two best performances, throwing for 546 yards and five touchdowns over back-to-back weeks against a strong Riders defense. Tolliver led the team in receiving in those contests with a total of nine catches for 173 yards, while Fletcher racked up 276 yards on 44 touches.
However, the Argos offense should also have success. Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson has played well, except for a maddening tendency to throw interceptions. Fortunately for him, the Elks defense is tied for last in the league with six interceptions and is allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt.
The Argos have scored at least 30 points in five of their six games at BMO Stadium this year and have gone 6-2 O/U in their last eight games overall. Take the Over.
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