The Montreal Alouettes welcome the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to Percival Molson Stadium tonight.
Montreal is down to fourth-string quarterback James Morgan, but my Blue Bombers vs. Alouettes predictions are going against the line movement and taking the home side on the spread.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this Week 12 clash on Thursday, August 21.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes prediction
My Blue Bombers vs Alouettes pick: Alouettes +7.5 (-120 at BET99)
It's wild to think that less than two months ago, both of these teams were favored to win the Grey Cup after starting the year 3-0. Since then, the Montreal Alouettes are 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread, while the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have gone 2-4 SU and ATS.
The Als are coming off just four days of rest and will have James Morgan making his first career CFL start after losing third-string Caleb Evans to a torn ACL last week.
That had me initially leaning towards Winnipeg on the opening line at -4.5, but with that spread shifting to -6.5, I'm coming around on the other side.
Morgan was solid in relief last week, completing 20 of 33 passes for 211 yards with a TD and a pick after taking over in the second quarter. Winnipeg has a history of underperforming against backup QBs, and Morgan will be better at home after getting first-team reps at practice this week.
I'm not comfortable laying this many points with a Bombers squad that can't seem to play a full game. They kicked a last-second field goal to beat Ottawa last week despite a 20-3 lead at half.
They also squandered a 17-point lead against Calgary the previous week and needed a pair of 90+ yard kick returns to edge last-place Toronto in Week 9.
Winnipeg has turned the ball over a league-high 28 times while ranking dead-last in TO margin (-11). That sloppy offense won't find it easy against an Als D that generates pressure, forces turnovers, and allows the second-fewest yards per play in the league.
I'll buy a point to get past that key number of 7 and take the Alouettes at +7.5.
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)
Alouettes +7.5
Under 48.5
Winnipeg's defense is vulnerable through the air, but with Morgan at QB and Montreal's two best receivers sidelined by injury, the Als aren't equipped to take advantage.
Keep in mind that Winnipeg's defense forces two-and-outs at the highest rate in the CFL, while Montreal has averaged a league-low 5.91 yards per play.
That said, Winnipeg's offense also struggles to generate first downs or make plays downfield. The Bombers are seventh in the CFL in yards per play (6.24) and rank eighth in 2nd-down conversion rate (46.2%).
Expect plenty of punts and few big plays on Thursday, leading to this game finishing below the total.
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Blue Bombers vs Alouettes odds
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes live odds
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes opening odds
- Spread: Winnipeg 4.5 (-110) | Montreal +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Winnipeg -210 | Montreal +170
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes trend
The Under is 4-1-1 in Montreal's last six games.
How to watch Blue Bombers vs Alouettes and game info
| Location | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date | Thursday, August 21, 2025 |
| Kick-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes key injuries
Blue Bombers: Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Micah Vanterpool OL (Questionable).
Alouettes: Davis Alexander QB (Out), Caleb Evans QB (Out), McLeod Bethel-Thompson QB (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Austin Mack WR (Out), Justin Lawrence C (Out), James Letcher Jr. WR/KR (Out), Mustafa Johnson DT (Out), Marc-Antoine Dequoy S (Out).
Blue Bombers vs Alouettes weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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