The Montreal Alouettes head to the nation's capital to face the Ottawa Redblacks in Week 11 of CFL betting action on Saturday.
CFL betting lines have the Redblacks as 5.5-point home underdogs for this contest but they might like their chances of pulling off the upset with the Als missing star quarterback Vernon Adams Jr.
Here are our best free Alouettes vs. Redblacks picks and predictions for Saturday, October 16, with kickoff at 4 p.m. ET.
Alouettes vs Redblacks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Alouettes vs Redblacks picks
Picks made on 10/14/2021 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Alouettes vs Redblacks game info
• Location: TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Alouettes at Redblacks betting preview
Alouettes: William Stanback RB (Probable), Vernon Adams Jr. QB (Out), Antonio Simmons DE (Questionable), Wes Sutton DB (Questionable), Sean Jamieson OL (Questionable), Ryan Carter DB (Out), Mario Alford WR (Out), Jean-Samuel Blanc DL (Out).
Redblacks: Dominique Davis QB (Out), Matt Nichols QB (Out), Timothy Flanders (Probable), Kenny Stafford WR (Probable), Devonte Dedmon WR (Probable), Mark Korte OL (Probable), Stansley Maponga Sr. DL (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Alouettes are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Ottawa. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Redblacks.
Alouettes vs Redblacks predictions
Montreal -5.5 (-110)
Montreal defeated the Redblacks last week to improve to 4-4 but failed to cover the spread and will now be without star QB Vernon Adams Jr., who was placed on the injured list with a shoulder injury. Adams had some issues with accuracy this season but he still led the league with 14 passing touchdowns while averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
That said, the strength of this 4-4 Als team is their ground game, and they lead the league with an incredible 151.3 rushing yards per game (45 yards more than second-place Winnipeg) and 6.0 yards per carry. While backup Matthew Schiltz is no Adams, he has still thrown 172 passes over the last four years and led the Als to the game-winning drive last week.
With the Redblacks ranking last in the league in both run defense (114.3 rushing yards per game) and yards allowed per pass attempt (9.1), they'll be hard-pressed to slow down Montreal's offense even with Schiltz at the helm.
The Redblacks have a backup of their own under center with Caleb Evans making his fourth consecutive start, after injuries knocked out their top two quarterbacks. Evans has added energy to Ottawa's offense but his passing numbers have gotten worse in each contest. He completed just 13-23 passes for 125 yards and an interception last week and it's fair to question if opposing coordinators have figured out the 23-year-old.
The Redblacks have covered the spread in two of their last three games but they're still just 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in their previous 19 contests. Don't underestimate this Als offense without Adams and take Montreal on the spread.
Under 45.5 (-110)
Both of these teams have vulnerable secondaries that have a tendency to get burned deep. That said, the quarterbacks might not be able to take advantage of that, especially if they are under constant pressure. These teams combined for 11 sacks last week with Ottawa getting to Adams six times.
The Redblacks are now a respectable fourth in the league with 22 sacks. If they harass Schiltz like they did Adams last week, he likely won't be able to attack downfield and will need to rely on Montreal's ground game to control the clock.
However, Ottawa also has a brutal offensive line and has surrendered 28 sacks this year. They'll have a tough time giving Evans time to throw against an Als stop-unit that leads the league with 3.13 sacks per game
These rivals have played in plenty of shootouts against each other in recent years but with both of them relying on inexperienced QBs on Saturday, expect a more conservative gameplan and take the Under.
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