Murodjon Akhmadaliev is either going to be the toughest opponent Naoya Inoue has ever fought, or he’s going to end up like the rest in the monster’s pace when these two clash for the undisputed junior featherweight title this weekend.
Inoue is the -1000 favorite over the +600 underdog Akhmadaliev. Here are my free Inoue vs. Akhmadaliev predictions and betting picks for this Tokyo clash.
Inoue vs Akhmadaliev prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Inoue moneyline (-1000 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Inoue to win + Under 1.5 knockdowns (-130 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Naoya Inoue is entering the past-prime phase of his legendary career. Once untouchable, he now looks closer to his physical ceiling, with opponents like Ramon Cardenas and Luis Nery finding success before succumbing to his relentless body attack.
At 32, Inoue remains a devastating puncher, but junior featherweights are naturally bigger, forcing him to rely more on skill and setups than sheer power. Even so, it still takes a special kind of fighter to threaten his reign atop the pound-for-pound rankings.
Murodjon Akhmadaliev was once considered the most intriguing potential opponent for Inoue, until he was upset by Marlon Tapales in 2022.
The Uzbek southpaw is a former unified champion with an iron chin, solid technique, and 11 knockouts in 14 wins. Since the Tapales loss, he’s scored three straight stoppages and trains under Joel Diaz, the same coach who prepared Cardenas for his surprisingly competitive showing against Inoue.
He’s durable and dangerous early, but his loss to Tapales showed he can be outworked and out-hustled.
Akhmadaliev might have the firepower and size to go toe-to-toe with Inoue in the early going, but if he could get outhustled by Tapales, there’s no way he manages to flummox Inoue.
While there might be some moments where he’ll catch Inoue and add to the narrative Inoue might be reaching the edge of the cliff, Inoue’s superior skill set and punching power will wear Akhmadaliev down and extend his run. Inoue is the pick.
Best best analysis
It’s getting hard to find value when it comes to Inoue’s fights, but we can still rely on his power to come through. He’s had no trouble knocking his opponents down.
However, he’s needed more leather than usual to get it done, and this fight should be no exception, as Akhmadaliev is going to make this a close-quarters fight and try to get the jump on the smaller man — which will eventually lead to a stoppage loss.
Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev odds
| Method of victory | Naoya Inoue | Murodjon Akhmadaliev |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1000 | +600 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -260 | +1100 |
| Win by points or decision | +320 | +1400 |
| Draw | +2000 | +2000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 9-13.
Naoya Inoue vs Murodjon Akhmadaliev tale of the tape
| Inoue | Akhmadaliev | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-5 |
| Super Bantamweight | Weight Class | Super Bantamweight |
| 67 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 30-0 | Record | 14-1 |
| 27 | Wins by KO | 11 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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