Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugás may not be the fight boxing bettors wanted. But hey, at least Manny’s not fighting a YouTuber.
Pacquiao was originally scheduled to face IBF and WBC welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on August 21. However, Spence suffered an eye injury and was speedily replaced by undercard standout Ugás, the WBA super welterweight title holder.
That shakeup shifted the odds on Pacquiao from a +240 underdog versus Spence to a -380 favorite against Ugás.
Here are our boxing betting picks and predictions for Manny Pacquiao vs. Yordenis Ugás.
Pacquiao vs Ugás fight odds
| Method of Victory | Manny Pacquiao | Yordenis Ugás |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -400 | +275 |
| Win by decision or technical decision | +110 | +450 |
| Win by KO, TKO or DQ | +162 | +1,000 |
| Draw or technical draw | +1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of August 16, 2021.
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Pacquiao vs Ugás betting preview
Last-minute switches in opponents can often open the door for betting value in combat sports, as a fighter plans and preps for one style but then suddenly faces another. And while Ugás is a quality boxer – and an orthodox stance compared to the southpaw Spence - this change in the card comes with plenty of time for Pacquiao’s camp to pivot.
Ugás is a safe choice for the aging Pacquiao, who hasn’t stepped inside the ring since July 2019. The 35-year-old Cuban is smaller than Spence and boasts a shorter reach (69 inches) with just 12 KO wins in his 26 pro victories – compared to Spence’s unblemished record of 21 KOs in 27 wins.
He’s not nearly as polished as the fighter he replaced, nor the ageless eight-division champion. Ugás has a respectable right hand, but his poor technique and lack of patience lead to less-than-calculated throws and wild punches. His footwork isn’t even in the same universe as Pacquiao, and at 42 years old, Pac-Man will outpace the younger Ugás and his straightforward plodding attack.
Most big-name bouts see the underdog take a lot of public play closer to fight night (bettors chasing the big payday and sharps come back on the chalk at the last minute), but Pacquiao has a loyal following that will bet him blindly. His outright price is already up to -430 at some sportsbooks and those odds won’t dip too much, considering the contrast in quality of his new opponent compared to Spence.
If you like Pacquiao outright, try to shop around for something sub-4/1 but don’t wait around hoping that price tag slims on Saturday night. If you’re looking to stretch your boxing betting bucks, there are some props and alternative odds for Pacquiao vs. Ugás.
Pacquiao vs Ugás tale of the tape
| Manny Pacquiao | Yordenis Ugás | |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 67 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 62-7-2 (39 KO) | Record | 26-4 (12 KO) |
Pacquiao vs Ugás predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance: Yes (-175) - Ugás is no stranger to the championship rounds, going the 12-round distance in four of his last five fights. He isn’t the dangerous knockout threat that Spence was, which is likely why Pacquiao’s promotion handpicked him as the replacement: an aggressive fighter who presses the action but doesn’t possess much pop.
Pacquiao was once one of the most feared KO artists in the sport during his heyday from the mid-90’s to mid-2000’s. But the tax those wars took on the Filipino superstar forced him to become a smarter defensive boxer as he got older – something he was leaning on in prep for his original opponent, who had a 5-inch reach advantage.
Pacquiao’s fights have gone to the judges in 14 of his last 16 appearances since 2010, and while there will be plenty of punches thrown in this title fight, there won’t be too much on them as the rounds add up.
PREDICTION: Pacquiao via decision (+110) - The former Olympian Ugás can absorb punishment, as his linear stalking approach leaves him vulnerable to blows. He’ll likely come out aggressive, trying to put Pacquiao on his heels while he’s got some life in his arms, but the savvy senator is a lethal counter puncher.
Pacquiao knocked down Keith Thurman late in Round 1 of his most recent fight – two years ago – after Thurman threw busy hands in the opening minutes. His closing speed, nimble footwork and quick fists outworked Thurman throughout the rest of that fight, with Pacquiao throwing 340 punches but landing just 113 blows in a split-decision victory.
He may want to be a little more calculated against Ugás. Pacquiao could be looking to protect himself and his promotion in this sudden replacement situation, knowing a win would draw more eyeballs for an eventual matchup (and massive payday) with Spence at a later date. But a loss or close call versus Ugás could spoil those plans.
Where can I bet on boxing odds?
Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on boxing odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what boxing bets they have available.
