The biggest fight of 2025 is upon us as Terence Crawford chases immortality and a chance to win an undisputed world title in a third weight class, a title he’ll have to wrest from boxing’s biggest star in Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.
Alvarez is the -175 favorite over the +140 underdog Crawford. Here are my best Alvarez vs. Crawford predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas.
Alvarez vs Crawford prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Alvarez moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Alvarez to win by decision (+125 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Terence Crawford is on the cusp of being recognized as the best fighter of the last 25 years, with winning the super middleweight title from Saul Alvarez at 38 years old while jumping two (technically three) divisions in doing so.
While Crawford has become the sentimental favorite, one thing that has been lost in all of this is the fact that Alvarez is still an excellent fighter in his own right.
Much has been made about the intangibles giving Crawford an advantage, though little has focused on Canelo, who remains the favorite and has historical precedent backing him up.
Crawford looked to hit his physical ceiling in his last fight against Israil Madrimov, which served as his junior middleweight debut and his toughest fight to date. So much so that Crawford has been inactive for a year to grow into a super middleweight frame, and with many pointing out that Crawford must rely on his incredible boxing IQ to win this one.
Skill-wise, he’s no doubt the smarter fighter and has demonstrated precise counter-punching and a creative offense, but it was clear some of that was lost going up to 154 pounds, and will be lost going up to 168.
Alvarez rules the super middleweight division with an iron fist and no viable contenders to challenge him, allowing the criticism to sink in that he’s taking easy fights. Alvarez isn’t in his prime anymore, but he hasn’t needed to rely much on intensity in recent fights as he’s landing big shots at the right moments, leaving his opponents unwilling to engage.
We’ve seen Alvarez topple physically bigger fighters and break down technicians in the past, but he hasn’t scored a knockout since 2021, and questions about his waning desire remain valid.
Despite the narrative, this is a huge mountain for Crawford to conquer.
Fighters do not jump this high in weight and topple a reigning and serviceable champion. Jermell Charlo figured that out when he challenged Alvarez under similar circumstances and was given the same theoretical paths to victory as Crawford, only to quickly find out how smart and strong Alvarez was, opting to cover up and survive rather than risk getting knocked out.
Crawford is not as defensively sound as many are giving him credit for, particularly as he tends to get hit while staying in the pocket looking for counter-shots. Crawford is not as defensively sharp as Floyd Mayweather Jr., and he doesn’t have Dmitry Bivol’s size to put Canelo on the back foot, which is paramount in any winning strategy against him.
This fight comes down to who will take the backwards step first, and I don’t see Crawford carrying enough power up the scales to where he’ll give Canelo second thoughts of walking him down. Alvarez is the pick.
Best best analysis
Canelo isn’t knocking fighters out anymore, but to his credit, he’s fighting opponents who simply do not want to put themselves at risk after getting a taste of his strength. Crawford’s chin has been rock solid his entire career, and Alvarez’s output has become more selective to preserve his effectiveness in the later rounds.
This fight is going to go the distance, so Alvarez getting the decision is my best bet.
🥊 Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford
— Rohit (@Covers_Ro) September 13, 2025
Odds via @DKSportsbook
Canelo -175 ML, +210 by dec
Crawford +140 ML, +210 by dec pic.twitter.com/Gl7G1LCZ0R
Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford odds
| Method of victory | Canelo Alvarez | Terence Crawford |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -175 | +140 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +380 | +850 |
| Win by points or decision | +125 | +210 |
| Draw | +1200 | +1200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 9-13.
Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford tale of the tape
| Alvarez | Crawford | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 63-2-2 | Record | 41-0 |
| 39 | Wins by KO | 31 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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