By now, boxing fans are used to not getting what they want.
The politics of the sport have denied us plenty of potential all-time bouts, and it looks like we’ll have to sit through Anthony Joshua versus Oleksandr Usyk before our wishes come true (maybe?). That’s not saying Joshua vs. Usyk isn’t an interesting matchup, but it sure as hell ain’t AJ versus Tyson Fury.
Joshua is a -275 favorite with Usyk coming back at +225 and contrasts in styles and stance may be worth a worry for anyone laying the lumber with AJ. Here are our boxing picks and predictions for Joshua vs. Usyk on Saturday, September 25.
Anthony Joshua vs Oleksandr Usyk betting predictions
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Anthony Joshua vs Oleksandr Usyk betting preview
Clicking submit on a bet on Joshua always comes with a little hesitation when memories of his upset loss to Andy Ruiz back in June 2019 come dancing into our heads. But put your wagering worries to rest. Joshua is a much different fighter now.
Since that stunner, AJ has sharpened his pure boxing skills, fighting a much more upright style while leading behind a heavy jab and utilizing every inch of his 6-foot-6 frame and gargantuan 82-inch reach. Imagine someone throwing a full-grown maple tree at your head over and over for 36 minutes. That’s what it’s like facing AJ’s jab.
That tree trunk of a left arm is then followed by a booming right with a fist the size of a beach ball... if that beach ball was filled with nickels and gun powder. Joshua is now more calculated when it comes to the intention of those punches — almost to the point of passivity — but as he proved with his ninth-round knockout of Kubrat Pulev back in December, it’s just a matter of time with hits that hard.
Usyk is an appealing option for those looking for the live dog. He’s a southpaw with a rich boxing pedigree, winning an Olympic gold in London 2012 and climbing to the top of the cruiserweight division as its most decorated champion in history before making the jump to heavyweight in October 2019.
The Ukrainian has never tasted defeat (18-0) and is a very active and elusive fighter with phenomenal footwork. He’ll make the bigger Joshua move around the ring and will also be able to worm his way out of jams if AJ isn’t quick to cut off the ring with his size advantage.
This issue with Usyk is his ability to sustain punishment as well as dish it out. He’s much smaller than Joshua and even at 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach, Usyk will be dwarfed by the beefier champion. His punching power is suspect at this weight, so his best shot is setting a frantic pace, slipping inside, and out-pointing the longer foe.
He’s had only two fights at heavyweight and was pounded early on in his most recent outing versus Derek Chisora, taking hard shots in the first three rounds but surviving and then outlasting him to win on the judges’ cards. However, this is a massive step up in competition, size (Chisora was only 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach), and power.
Anthony Joshua vs Oleksandr Usyk picks
Anthony Joshua to win (-275)
Getting a fighter of Joshua’s caliber under -300 is a treat. He has the power to put Usyk away or he could also sit back on his jab and pick up points.
He’s shown a tremendous amount of patience in both his decision win in the rematch with Ruiz and the KO victory over Pulev, which could have come much earlier than Round 9 if AJ had pressed just a little.
Joshua won’t get baited into punching his way out of the fight early on like Chisora did versus Usyk. Nor will he chase the fleet-footed challenger around the ring in the opening rounds and tire himself out. Fight fans may want to put the coffee on for at least the first three or four rounds. Could be a whole lot of nothing.
Anthony Joshua via KO (+105)
Some may say AJ has fought scared since getting KO’d by Ruiz in June 2019.
He didn’t stick his neck out at all in the rematch the following December and while he hurt Pulev in Round 3, he could have ended the fight sooner than the ninth. He did put the riddled challenger away with a series of vicious uppercuts and then a final cold-cocked straight right that proved there’s plenty of killer instinct inside the WBA (Super), IBF, WBO, and IBO title holder.
One of Joshua’s most effective punches in that last bout versus Pulev was a stiff straight jab to the stomach — boxing’s equivalent of sweeping the leg — with 28 of his 68 landed jabs on the body. Over time, those investment shots made Pulev feel 1,000 pounds heavier and dropped his hands, setting up those finishing blows.
If AJ can land those jabs to the body on Usyk, it will sap some of his opponent’s speed and quickness and leave Usyk open to KO punches.
Anthony Joshua wins rounds 7-9 (+333)
Usyk has shown his survival skills against harder-hitting foes and has the motor to stretch this bout into the deeper rounds. He’s in no hurry to mix it up with AJ and could run, dance, and grab for the first few rounds.
As mentioned, Joshua has practiced the patience of Job in his last two fights. He’s slowly stalked behind his jab and cut off the ring with his size but hasn’t pressed action or thrown any wild punches trying to land a knockout.
Just 37 percent of AJ’s punches versus Pulev were power punches and only 14 of those came in Round 9 (landing 12) when he finished the fight. He doesn’t waste those bombs and will wait for Usyk’s defenses to thin once he slows him down between Rounds 7 and 9.
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