NFL Picks

The Cowboys throw the ball at the seventh highest rate and Prescott has attempted the third most passes per game among qualified QBs (37 per game). This pairing with the Lions’ soft secondary will see those numbers rise. With a total this high and two defenses known for allowing home run plays, Thursday Night Football could quickly turn into a shootout – prompting more passing plays from Prescott and the Cowboys. His Week 14 projections bounce between 36 and 37 pass attempts but with Dallas expected to play from behind (as road underdogs), I believe the ceiling is closer to 40 passes thrown from No. 4 on TNF.

Gibbs has rushed for 1019 yards this year while adding another 397 yards through the air. The two-time Pro Bowler had a a career-high 11 receptions for 45 yards in Week 12 and racked up 107 receiving yards the week before that. He faces a Dallas defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against running backs while allowing 44.7 receiving yards per game to the position - the third-highest number in the NFL. The Cowboys lead the league in pressure rate so expect Jared Goff to rely on shorter throws and outlet options like Gibbs. With TE Sam Laporta on the IR and No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St.Brown injuring his ankle last week, there will be plenty of targets to go around.

Pittsburgh leaned on Jaylen Warren more last week than they had in recent games, giving him the majority of the red-zone work. He had the team’s only carry inside the 5 — which he converted for a TD — and added two more red-zone targets. Even though the Steelers alternated drives with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren consistently got the first crack and the valuable touches near the goal line. I saw it firsthand while chasing a Gainwell TD at +220 and watching Warren outcarry him 2:1. The quarterback situation is shaky, but against a Baltimore team that’s lost its defensive edge and just gave up plenty of production to Bengals running backs, Warren should be asked to handle a heavy workload and finish drives. Warren was -155 just four games ago.

Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.

Atlanta has played some softer foes in recent weeks, facing New York, New Orleans, and Carolina. Now, the Falcons take on one of the best two-way teams in the league. Seattle feasted on the Vikings’ shaky QB situation this weekend, creating a ton of chaos in the pocket and upping its stock as the premier stop unit in the land. That vaunted pass rush will be chasing down the aging legs of Kirk Cousins in Week 14. The Seahawks opened with the half point hook on the touchdown, which may scare off some. But -8 is an undervalued key number in football betting these days and this spread could quickly move to -8.5 to -9 considering the contrast in public opinion.

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned 26.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Seattle's offense near the end zone in this contest at 33.4%.. After totaling 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gotten better this year, currently pacing 112.0 per game.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 57.6.

I don’t usually double-dip in back-to-back weeks, but Harold Fannin and Shedeur Sanders are clicking, and the rookie tight end cashed a +425 TD for me last week in brutal weather, so I’m going back in Week 14 despite the price drop. Fannin has now led the team in receptions and targets in two straight games and profiles as a potential No. 1 option again against a weak Titans defense. Sanders looks comfortable, and this time he won’t be throwing in 30-mph winds. Fannin has fully taken over the TE1 role from David Njoku and has been more reliable than Jerry Jeudy. I’d play his TD down to +230.

The Titans have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.2 plays per game.. Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

After posting an 8/102/1 line last week in just his third game with the offense, the former Colts receiver looks like he’s finally settling into a suddenly competent Jets attack. Across his three games as a Jet, he’s racked up 457 air yards and 27 targets — production that should put his TD price below +200, yet the market still hasn’t adjusted. John Metchie saw eight targets last week, but much of that came late. Mitchell is the one getting the deeper routes and the higher-value opportunities. The Jets may not score more than 20 points, but with Miami having to account for Breece Hall, Mitchell should see plenty of shots on Sunday.

When the Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26. The Jets have quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots. Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes this season, but they’ve consistently been stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranked 12th in opponent success rate per run. Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday. 

The Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season and with his second team. Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now he gets a Tampa defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely have to lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns. Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Brenton Strange found the end zone for the first time this season in his second game back, and the usage was no fluke — only Jakobi Meyers saw more targets. With the Colts on deck and no Sauce Gardner this week (a big shift from last week’s matchup vs. Tennessee), the passing volume should stay elevated. Strange is emerging as a legitimate top receiving option in this offense. Brian Thomas hasn’t looked like last year’s version of himself, Meyers offers limited upside, and Parker Washington left Week 13 with a hip injury and didn’t return. Now he draws a premium matchup: Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to opposing tight ends. Given the role, matchup, and red-zone involvement, Strange anytime TD is playable down to +240.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula and has limited mobility, but the team really has no other option at QB. And opponents know it. We’ve seen recent foes go all in on stuffing RB Jonathan Taylor, forcing Jones to beat them through the air. He’s completed just 58% of his passes for 181 and 201 yards with four touchdowns the pass two games – both losses. The Jaguars will test Jones’ mobility with one of the best pass rushes in the league. Jacksonville may only have 24 sacks but is Top 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, as well as QB hits and hurries. All that chaos has generated 20 takeaways, including 13 interceptions. Jacksonville definitely has shortcomings and its recent success (winning four of its last five) has been against some softer opponents. That said, four of those five games were on the road and the Jags get to host a Colts team that is 1-3 SU in its last four away games. 

In his first game back after a four-week absence, Terry McLaurin drew 14 targets — tied for the most of any player in Week 13. Even more impressive, he did it on just 49% of the snaps with Marcus Mariota under center. Now he steps into an indoor matchup against a Minnesota team that can’t generate much offense, and he could see a QB upgrade if Jayden Daniels returns. Even if he doesn’t, getting a receiver at better than +200 who’s capable of 10+ targets is an easy play in Week 14. His snap share will only rise as he gets back to full form. With that Week 13 volume, he should be closer to +150.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (270.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.. The Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Samaje Perine is a sneaky +310 TD play this week against a Bills defense I still don’t trust against the run. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than Buffalo, and their 15 rushing TDs allowed to running backs are the most in the league. Perine returned last week and immediately carved into Chase Brown’s workload, even getting the only RB carry inside the 5. He finished with 14 carries—just one fewer than Brown—and logged a 40% snap share. Cincinnati may want to ease Brown’s workload after weeks of heavy usage, and Perine looks positioned to handle high-value touches near the goal line in a Joe Burrow offense with a 52.5-point total.

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

I bet Harvey Over 47.5 rush yards on Monday. That closed like 10 yards higher at 56.5 but while he ran 13 times, he only amassed 35 yards rushing to go along with two touchdowns in an OT win at Washington. This week, I’m back on it. He’s the RB1 in Denver with Dobbins done and game script says the Broncos get up big and run it out in Vegas – more than the 23 attempts last week. Projections all above this total with most at 51 yards or more, some flirting with 60 yards. 

The Raiders have been outscored by double-digits in three consecutive games and have also lost six straight to drop to 2-10 on the season. Even worse, Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith has been among the worst in the league during the stretch with a miniscule 6.2 yards per attempt and -0.147 EPA per play. Denver continues to send out a stingy defense allowing the fewest yards per play and fourth-fewest points per game. Of course, the Broncos have rolled off nine consecutive wins, too.

Jordan Love is positioned as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 67.9% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in football against the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 8.50 yards.. The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Last week, the Rams were 10.5-point road faves against a 6-6 Panthers team despite traveling to the Eastern Seaboard for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. They ended up losing that game due to a couple of rare picks from Matthew Stafford, but that doesn't justify a shift to -8 this week with easier travel conditions against the 3-9 Cardinals. This is a Rams team that ranks second in the league in DVOA while the Cardinals rank 21st. With five of the Rams last six wins coming by double digits, expect them to bounce back with a lopsided win here. 

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.9 total plays called: the most among all games this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 11.2% this year, which puts him in the 87th percentile among RBs.. When talking about air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 97th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a staggering 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Oddsmakers continue to underestimate Houston, who has the top-rated defense in the league in terms of EPA/play. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans also have a decent offense so long as they're playing against a defense that can't take advantage of their poor pass protection. With the Chiefs in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks, they won't force Stroud into bad decisions. I'm reluctant to bet against Patrick Mahomes with a short spread at home, but the Chiefs tend to get off to slow starts, so take the points with the Texans in the first half.  

Houston has held its last three foes to 19 points or less, including the Colts in Week 13. The Texans know this Andy Reid offensive all too well after losing 23-14 to Kansas City in the Divisional Round last January, despite checking Patrick Mahomes & Co. to just 212 total yards. As for the Houston offense, it has to come outside in the cold – not C.J. Stroud’s favorite setting – with Arrowhead Stadium expected to “feel like” 12 degrees for Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs’ scoring has sputtered too, with a lack of explosive plays and the offense stalling out in the red zone. Kansas City was able to put up some points indoor against a shoddy Dallas defense, but Houston is a different beast. I’m betting the Under 43.5 now with some sportsbooks already sliding below the key number and this total likely to drop closer to 41 once weather reports make the rounds.

The Eagles offense is sputtering, and fingers are pointing everywhere, including the press asking why Jalen Hurts isn’t running the ball as much. This offense is at its best when Hurts gets going on the ground and times are getting desperate. He’s had more than seven carries only once in the past eight games and has topped out at 33 rushing yards in that span. The Chargers zone heavy scheme isn’t allowing anything over the top and we could see Hurts forced to run with limited looks downfield. We’ve seen the Bolts give up gains on the ground to nimble QBs like Mahomes, Nix, Dart and Daniels. Projections for Hurts at 34 yards and higher with a ceiling of 42.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.