NFL Picks

The Colts have been throwing the ball on early downs due to their confidence in new QB Daniel Jones. That means opposing defenses won't be as willing to stack the box against Pro Bowl RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor rushed for 165 yards against Denver's highly-rated defense last week and he has now rushed for 95+ yards in six of his last seven games. That includes a Week 16 clash with the Titans last year when he rumbled for 218 yards on 29 carries. This year, the Titans are last in the league in defensive rush EPA while surrendering 150 rushing yards per game. 

Daniel Jones has taken 45% of the Colts’ red-zone carries and four of their six attempts from inside the 5-yard line. That usage alone makes his price a strong buy in Week 3. Head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop the Tush Push as Philly’s OC, clearly likes using his quarterback in short-yardage spots. Last week, Indy ran QB sneaks on three straight plays near the goal line (one was nullified by a defensive penalty). With the Titans forced to key on Taylor, Jones has multiple paths to a touchdown—designed runs, scrambles, or a call at the 1-yard line.

Drake Maye gets a shot at a bottom-10 defense missing OLB Alex Highsmith and with three other starters listed as questionable. There’s not a ton of value left at +300 for a Maye anytime TD—I'd play it down to +270/+280—but his goal-line usage is hard to ignore. Last week, New England’s RBs had four red-zone carries, but none inside the 5-yard line. Maye had three red-zone runs and scored on a six-yard TD. He finished with 10 total carries, and Pittsburgh already gave up two rushing TDs to Justin Fields in Week 1. If CB Christian Gonzalez is out again, DK Metcalf is also in play at +145—worth a look down to +135.

I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense from The Black and Gold in Week 3. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season, after all.

The Bucs are in rough shape on the offensive line. Starting guard Cody Mauch is out for the season, and both starting tackles remain questionable for Week 3. Baker Mayfield has been under constant pressure—he leads the league in pressure rate at 43.9%, despite averaging just 2.27 seconds to throw. That kind of chaos has forced Mayfield to use his legs. He ranks fifth among QBs in scramble yards and has rushed for 30+ in both games this season. While he hasn’t found the end zone yet, he’s +500 to score a TD this week—a number that feels too long given his usage. He ran for three scores last year, and with the Jets bringing more pressure, he might have to take matters into his own hands again.

The leading projections forecast the Jets offensive strategy to skew 13.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see only 122.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.. The New York Jets have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.. With a feeble 77.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Breece Hall rates among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs.

The Raiders ran 11 personnel on 79% of snaps last week, and the trio of Jakobi Myers, Tre Tucker, and Dont'e Thornton all posted a route share of 85% or higher. At +350, Tucker is my favorite TD bet. Tucker, the No. 2 WR in this offense right now, saw eight targets and even had a carry for seven yards in Week 2 after scoring in Week 1. The Raiders are throwing at a 66% rate this season, and Geno Smith has already dropped back 77 times. Ashton Jeanty at +100 is the safer option, but with Tucker’s route share, involvement, and the +350 price, he’s the longer shot I want to back this week.

With Jayden Daniels banged up and Austin Ekeler done for the year with a torn Achilles, rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt could see his number called even more against the Raiders. The seventh-round pick is averaging 7.1 yards per carry heading into Week 3, and I expect Kliff Kingsbury to center the red-zone game plan around him, taking the ball out of Marcus Mariota's hands inside the 20s.

Barkley caught all four passes his way for 27 yards in the NFC Divisional Round. So far in 2025, he’s seen his share of routes, especially in the win over Dallas in Week 1. Philadelphia couldn’t get Barkley going in that opener (just 3.3 ypc), so it found other ways to put the ball in his hands. He was targeted five times for four receptions and 24 yards. Before the playoff matchups with Los Angeles in January, these foes clashed in Week 12. The Eagles jumped on Barkley’s back, with the RB rumbling for 255 yards but adding 47 receiving yards on 4-for-4 receiving. Projections for Barkley this Sunday range from 17 to 22.4 receiving yards versus the Rams.

The Rams rank second in EPA allowed, with an emphasis on the passing defense. That success stems from the pass rush, which is getting excellent pressure with just the front four. Being able to collapse the pocket with just four pass rushers allows L.A.’s LBs to spy QB Jalen Hurts as well as clog up the passing lanes and sniff out shorter throws. And that’s when Hurts drops back. This Philadelphia offense is still anchored in the run.

The Panthers are 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (141.0) while ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush (5.2). They'll have a tough time slowing down Pro Bowl RB Bijan Robinson on Sunday. Robinson gashed the Vikings for 143 yards on 23 carries last week. He piled up 1,456 rushing yards last season and shredded the Panthers both times he faced them. He rushed for 95 yards on 15 carries against Carolina in Week 6 before rumbling for 170 yards in the season finale.

Through two games, Allgeier and Robinson are tied with two carries each inside the 5-yard line, but Allgeier is the only one who has converted those into touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson seems more comfortable using Allgeier in short-yardage situations—he has double the number of carries inside the 10 compared to Bijan. Allgeier also closed out the Sunday night game and finished with 16 carries. Even before the final two drives, he had 7 carries to Bijan’s 18, suggesting a roughly 70/30 split—with red-zone work included. This sets up well in a game where Atlanta could once again be running the clock late. At +260 to score, Allgeier offers value in a run-heavy offense. Only three teams in the NFL are running at a higher rate than Atlanta’s 50%, so there’s enough volume for the backup to stay involved.

With the Bengals starting backup Jake Browning behind center, I’m anticipating the Minny defense having its best showing of the season against a sieve Cincy offensive line, and the Vikings pulling away offensively to cover the number Sunday.

Chase Brown will have Jake Browning under center, and while Browning is bound to make mistakes, he’s capable of moving the offense. Brown should be busy on Sunday against a Vikings defense that’s stronger against the pass than the run. At -120, there’s not much tax to pay for a back who handles all the RB carries and has taken all seven of the team’s red-zone attempts. With Browning at quarterback, I’d also expect Zac Taylor to keep things conservative near the goal line. This is a slight price adjustment—Brown was as short as -160 with Joe Burrow starting—but the switch to Browning might actually boost his volume, including in the passing game.

This TD prop opened at +140 last week, and I hit it with a five-star approach. He closed around even money, so I’m surprised to see it back at this price. Bhayshul Tuten is getting some run after the Tank Bigsby trade, but he wasn’t a major factor on early downs. Travis Etienne played 80% of the snaps on first and second down. According to Jacob Gibbs on X, Etienne is one of just three backs in the league to gain positive yards on 90% of his carries. He’s also averaging 3.4 yards before contact, second in the NFL behind Jahmyr Gibbs (min. 15 rushes). In Liam Coen’s offense, trusting the lead back is easy—especially near the goal line. Only James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs have more red-zone carries than Etienne this season.

Following the trade of Tank Bigsby to Philly, Bhayshul Tuten has emerged as Jacksonville's clear-cut RB2 behind Travis Etienne Jr. The rookie tallied a touchdown and 100 all-purpose yards against the Bengals in Week 2, and Tuten should thrive against a Houston defense that has allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game during its 0-2 start.

Jacobs rushed for 83 yards on an inefficient 3.7 ypa last week. That was just the third time in his last last nine games that he broke the 70-yard mark and he has a tough matchup on Sunday. The Browns held Baltimore's elite rushing attack to just 45 yards on 21 carries last week and they are sixth in the NFL in defensive rush success rate. Green Bay is 21st in the league in run-blocking grade (54.6) per PFF while Cleveland leads the league in run defense grade (85.6). In addition, Jacobs has been limited in practice due to an ankle injury and while he's expected to play, he might not be at full strength. 

These defenses are first and second in the league in yards allowed per play despite facing strong offenses to begin the year. The Packers shut down the Lions and Commanders in consecutive weeks and now they face a Browns offense that is just 30th in EPA under washed-up QB Joe Flacco. The Browns held the Bengals explosive offense to 2.9 yards per play in Week 1. Last week, they held Baltimore's elite rushing attack to just 45 yards on 21 carries while limiting Lamar Jackson to a modest 207 yards through the air. They'll do their part to keep this game below the total. 

Despite being the Chargers No. 3 WR, Johnston leads the team with 150 receiving yards through two games. It's worth noting that 60 of his 71 receiving yards last week came on a single catch against the Raiders. He'll have a much tougher time beating an elite Broncos secondary over the top. The Broncos had the best pass defense in the NFL last year and this season they rank second in defensive dropback success rate. The Broncos also blitz at the second-highest rate in the league which won't give Bolts QB Justin Herbert time to look downfield. Johnston is at his best on vertical routes but Denver rarely gets beat deep and lockdown CB Patrick Surtain could be lined up against him on the outside. 

The Chargers lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) at +11.9%, and their passing attack is spreading the ball well. Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen were the top three targeted players in Week 2. All three have topped 100 receiving yards on the season, and the group has combined for five touchdowns—though McConkey has yet to score. My approach to betting Chargers TDs: target the longest-priced wideout of the three. Last week, that was Johnston at +250, and he cashed. This week, I’m going back to him at +235. Johnston leads the WR group with three touchdowns in three games and had a 93% route share in Week 2. The run game isn’t clicking for the Chargers right now, and I’m also not sold on this Denver defense—it faced Cam Ward and Daniel Jones to open the year, then gave up 470+ yards to the Colts last week.

Darnold is coming off a breakout season with the Vikings where he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. He was ineffective in his Seahawks debut but completed 22-of-33 passes for 295 yards against the Steelers in Week 2. He now has the third-highest passing grade in the NFL per PFF and goes from facing Pittsburgh's tough defense on the road to playing against the lowly Saints at home. The Saints are 26th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 28th in opponent passer rating (111.3). Last week they allowed 49ers backup QB Mac Jones to complete 26-of-39 passes for 279 yards and three scores. 

The Seahawks have been far more effective on the ground this season, ranking 11th in EPA per rush compared to 29th in EPA per dropback. Kenneth Walker generated plenty of buzz after Week 2, rushing for 105 yards despite playing just 35% of the snaps. That number should rise this Sunday at home against the Saints, where Seattle is a 7-point favorite. Zach Charbonnet, who’s been splitting snaps with Walker, missed Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. That opens the door for a bigger workload for Walker in what should be a neutral-to-positive game script. He was PFF’s highest-graded running back in Week 2. In the red zone, Walker is averaging an absurd 6.6 yards per carry. It’s a bit of a mystery why Charbonnet has been getting some of the tough carries. If Charbonnet is ruled out, expect Walker’s TD price to move quickly—potentially dropping to around -145.

The 49ers listed eight players as DNPs on Wednesday’s injury report, including Brock Purdy, who’s questionable. That makes it tough to bet on San Francisco TD props, especially with Christian McCaffrey sitting at -230 anytime — a tough price to justify. Instead, I’m going back to James Conner, who’s available at +105 after closing at -155 last week against Carolina. That’s a 50-point swing despite the upgrade in opponent. Yes, it’s the 49ers, but they’ve faced Sam Darnold and Spencer Rattler so far — I’m not sold on their defense yet. Conner is technically splitting time with Trey Benson, but it’s Conner handling the early-down work and dominating carries. He had 11 carries to Benson’s three last week. More importantly, Conner has all of the RB carries inside the 5-yard line and five of the team’s seven red-zone rushing attempts.

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 70.4% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Kyler Murray rates among the most accurate passers in football.

The Cowboys let Russell Wilson go from the worst QB in Week 1 to throwing for 450 yards last week. Their pass defense has been awful — ranking 31st in EPA per dropback and 30th in success rate vs. the pass. The Bears aren't much better, sitting 30th in EPA per dropback. This sets up perfectly to target some pass catchers in what could be a high-scoring game. On the Chicago side, it's Rome Odunze at +155. I wouldn’t go shorter than +140, but he’s clearly the WR1 in this offense — drawing 30% of targets and 40% of the air yards. He also has three of the Bears’ five WR red-zone targets, while their tight ends have yet to see a single red-zone look this season.

The Cowboys let Russell Wilson go from the worst QB in Week 1 to throwing for 450 yards last week. Their pass defense has been awful — ranking 31st in EPA per dropback and 30th in success rate vs. the pass. The Bears aren't much better, sitting 30th in EPA per dropback. This sets up perfectly to target some pass catchers in what could be a high-scoring game. KaVontae Turpin left last week's game with a neck injury but was listed as limited on Wednesday’s walkthrough — a good sign for his availability on Sunday. If he's active, +400 for a TD is my favorite Dallas bet in this potential shootout. He's had multiple carries each week and was already at four catches for 47 yards and a TD before exiting last game. If Turpin is out, Jalen Tolbert at the same price becomes a solid pivot.

The media asked coach Reid about kick starting Pacheco and the rushing attack earlier this week and he simply said, “Yeah, we can do a better job there. We'll get that thing going.” The Giants could be the perfect opponent to “get that thing going” against. New York enters Week 3 among the bottom run stop units in the land. It is 23rd in run stop win rate at ESPN, 31st in both EPA allowed per handoff and success rate allowed per run and is allowing 5.9 yards per carry to rival runners. Game script says Kansas City is playing with a lead in the final two frames and depending on the rushing attack to protect the lead and chew up clock.

Russell Wilson had the New York offense rolling last week with 506 total yards and 37 points against the Cowboys. It won’t be as easy on Sunday night, but rookie RB Cam Skattebo is trending up. Skattebo logged a 51% snap share, out-carried Tyrone Tracy 11 to 5, and added three targets in the passing game. Most importantly, he’s been the go-to back in scoring range—he’s the only New York RB with any red-zone carries (six total) and converted one of two attempts inside the 5-yard line last week. His TD price is a buy at +180 or better. This could be the last week we see the market this far off—he’s still 100/1 for Offensive Rookie of the Year despite a growing role in maybe an underrated offense if Wilson can keep it together.

This spread is larger than the look-ahead spread (Baltimore -3.5) was back in the summer and I don't think that adjustment is warranted after two weeks. Ravens LB Kyle Van Noy (hamstring) and CB Marlon Humphrey (groin) are a risk to miss Week 3. The final score of the Ravens Week 2 win looked a lot better than what actually went down on the field. Baltimore won 41-17 but amassed only 242 yards (while allowing 323 against) and scored 21 of those points thanks in part to a blocked punt, fumble recovering and interception. Those big injuries and this inflated spread has me leaning toward Detroit as a 6-point underdog on MNF.

The predictive model expects the Lions to call the 11th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.. The Ravens pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (63.6%).. The Ravens safeties project as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

As of now, this is a J.J. McCarthy vs. Mason Rudolph battle under center, which might not be the most exciting QB pairing for the Irish crowd. Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers pick up a passer before this Week 4 showcase, but we’ll work with what we've got. The Minnesota Vikings proved a solid roster can lift the quarterback last season, and Minnesota has plenty of weapons around McCarthy, who missed his rookie campaign due to injury. I’ll lay Minnesota as a short neutral-site chalk.

It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after a Monday nighter with Detroit. Kansas City will likely be coming off a shit-kicking of the Giants on SNF in Week 3, allowing them to rest starters and pull back the playbook before this huge AFC encounter with Baltimore. The Chiefs have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, while covering the spread in three of those games.

The Vikings play their second straight international game, this time jumping the Irish Sea to play the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Cleveland’s QB rotation is a puzzle box, but we do know the Browns defense will be OK, with Myles Garrett riding a new contract. Minnesota also brings a top-tier stop unit to the UK, so this could be a defensive grinder.

The Denver Broncos are on the up and up, boasting second-year QB Bo Nix and arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially after bolstering the stop unit during free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, the New York Jets will be a team in transition, featuring new head coach Aaron Glenn and putting all their chips in on QB Justin Fields. I like the Broncos sitting just below the key number of a touchdown.

New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen faces a familiar foe in Sean McVay — his former boss of four seasons. It’s a massive time jump for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be eight hours ahead of Pacific Time in Week 7. The last time McVay’s team was in the UK, it played on the East Coast the week before and stayed out east before jumping the pond. As of right now, I want to lay Los Angeles -3.5, but I’m curious to see what the Rams' Week 6 matchup looks like.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.