NFL Picks

Nix has rushing yard totals of 49 and 42 on 17 total attempts over his last two games. This is a great matchup against a Bills defense that's allowed the fifth most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Recent weeks have seen the Bills allow Trevor Lawrence to rush for 31 yards, Sherdeur Sanders to go for 49 and Drake Maye went for 43. 

Over the four-game stretch from Weeks 14–17, Bo Nix logged seven red-zone rushing attempts and converted two of them into touchdowns. For context, lead back RJ Harvey had 10 red-zone carries over that span and also scored twice. Nix is a much sneakier rushing threat than the market gives him credit for. He ramped up his run rate late in the season, carrying the ball 17 times for 91 yards in Weeks 17 and 18 while adding five more red-zone rushes. Last week, Trevor Lawrence was priced at +190 to score with only a slight edge in season-long carries over Nix, highlighting the value here. If Denver can establish the run against a shaky run defense, a play-action bootleg near the goal line sets up perfectly for Nix to cash this at a strong price.

Both matchups during the regular season failed to top 30 combined points, including just two weeks ago when the Seahawks went into San Francisco and won 13-3. This is a very tough spot for the 49ers offense who are down another playmaker in George Kittle against this Seahawks defense that's held five of their last six opponents to 16 points or less.

Darnold completed 20 of 26 passes in a Week 18 win over San Francisco, in which Seattle went run heavy. The 49ers showed they could stiffen on the ground in the second half of the Wild Card win at Philadelphia and will sell out to stop Seattle’s rush attack Saturday. That leaves Darnold dropping back more. He’s completed 20 or more passes in four of his last five outings and faces a passive 49ers defense that doesn’t bring pressure and allows the fifth highest completion rate. Darnold’s projections range from 19.8 to a ceiling of 22 completions Saturday night.

Houston road games are 8-1 to the 1st Half Under with an average of just 14.6 combined points. I like this pattern to continue with both defenses coming off elite performances where they allowed a combined nine points in the wild card round.  

Nobody on the Patriots ran more routes in the Wild Card round than Hunter Henry, who tied for the team lead with five targets and scored the offense’s only touchdown. He was priced at +125 to score back in Week 18 and continues to be the clear top option near the goal line, owning seven more red-zone targets since Week 10 than all New England wide receivers combined. New England isn’t projected to put up many points on Sunday, which makes backing the No.1 target in the passing game at his best price in months the cleanest angle. Houston has also been slightly vulnerable to tight ends, allowing eight TDs to the position this season compared to just 10 to wide receivers.

This is a big fat fade of both defenses. Los Angeles is allowing an average of 30 points over their last five games, while Chicago ranks 29th in yards allowed per play on the season.  The Rams average a league-high 30.7 points per game and have the firepower to embarrass a Bears pass defense which is one of the NFL's worst.

After leading all pass-catchers in yards last week, I didn’t expect Colston Loveland to be priced north of +170 in the highest-total game of the Divisional Round. Loveland did everything but score in the Wild Card, piling up 15 targets and 137 yards. He may draw more attention this week, but this offense has enough weapons that the Rams can’t afford to sell out to stop him. This same defense just allowed over 200 yards to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker and has surrendered 149 points over its last five games, including matchups against Bryce Young, Jacoby Brissett, and Kirk Cousins. Loveland is in full beast mode with three straight games of 90-plus yards, and there’s no reason that run ends on Sunday.