NFL Picks

Minnesota brings extra pass rushers more than any team in the NFL, which has helped Flores generate the highest pressure rate per dropback on opposing passers. The Vikes rank No. 2 in QB hurries and No. 3 in QB hits while collecting 26 sacks on the season. Love’s pass protection is showing cracks, allowing six sacks the past three games, and the Cheeseheads’ leader could be without his best blitz-busting targets in TE Tucker Kraft (out) and dual-threat RB Josh Jacobs, who missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. Love has rushed for at least a dozen yards in six of his 10 games, and most Week 12 projections sit north of his current rushing yards O/U. Those models range from 10.5 to 16 yards with the majority beyond 14 gains on the ground.

I’ve seen enough of JJ McCarthy to avoid all Minnesota skill players against this defense, but Josh Whyle is a name I’m excited to take a swing on at this number. With Tucker Kraft out, there’s no clear answer at tight end, which opens the door for Whyle. He stole snaps from Luke Musgrave last week and scored on his only target. No Packers tight end had more than one catch, and the wide receiver room is crowded again with players returning. Add in the uncertainty around Josh Jacobs’ knee, and there may be a need for auxiliary help near the goal line. Whyle’s role is growing as he enters his third game with the team, and at this price, I’m comfortable throwing a full-unit dart.

Kelce isn't the player he was in his prime, but he's still one of the most productive tight ends in the NFL and Patrick Mahomes' security blanket. Last week, he reeled in nine of 13 targets for 91 yards against Denver's elite defense. That was his sixth-straight game with 54+ receiving yards and he's averaging 74.8 yards per game during that span. The Chiefs have struggled to establish the run which has led to them passing at the fourth-highest rate in the league (65.6%) over their last three games. Facing the 8-2 Colts should lead to another high-volume passing game and plenty of targets for Kelce. Indy struggles to defend TEs, allowing the second-most yards per game (72.6) to the position. 

The Colts have the highest-rated offense in the league in both EPA/play and DVOA. They lead the league in scoring (32.1 ppg) and yards per play (6.4), while ranking third in red-zone TD percentage (68.2%). While the Chiefs have a strong stop unit, they have a couple of weaknesses that Indy can exploit. They are 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA which is bad news against Jonathan Taylor who leads the NFL with 1139 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. The Chiefs also rank 23rd in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6%). The Colts have scored more than 28 points in eight of 10 games this season and as long as they can take care of the ball, they will eclipse their team total on Sunday. 

After getting off to a brutal start this season, Chase Brown has racked up more than 100 total yards in four-straight games. While Brown might have a tough time finding room on the ground against the Patriots stingy run defense, he should be busy as a receiver out of the backfield. The Pats surrender a league-high 5.7 receptions per game to running back. Brown is coming off a six-catch performance against Pittsburgh and in his previous game he reeled in eight of 14 targets for 75 yards versus Chicago. With All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase out with a suspension, there will be plenty of extra targets to go around.

New England has won eight straight, and they're a perfect 5-0 on the road. The Pats have also covered this exact spread in two of their previous three away games. 

Swift has 12 or more receiving yards in seven of nine games for 6.4 yards per target and 23 receptions for 210 yards. He also went good for 12 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games last season, and he’s only had a lower receiving yards total twice since joining the Bears. With the Steelers blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, I’m anticipating Swift being involved in the passing game as a means to mitigate the Pittsburgh pressure.

There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice. Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers have four DBs out, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10–15 points of cushion in his number.

There's a clear gap between these teams, but the Jets have been playing opponents too close to justify getting nearly two touchdowns against a Ravens team that isn't posting blowout wins.

Hall is a talented running back but he's held in check by being on a lousy Jets team. The Jets are 13.5-point road dogs in Week 12 against Baltimore who is 4-0 with an average scoring margin of +12.8 ppg since getting back Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's defense has made significant strides against the run. Through Week 5, the Ravens had allowed 146.4 rushing yards per game while ranking 32nd in defensive rush EPA. Since then they are allowing 96.6 yards per game on the ground while ranking third in defensive rush EPA.  Combine that improved run D with what will likely be a negative game script for the Jets and Hall will have a tough time eclipsing his rushing yards prop.

The Giants’ backfield usage doesn’t match the touchdown odds. Devin Singletary has 13 red-zone carries to Tyrone Tracy’s three since Cam Skattebo went down, yet Tracy is priced shorter to score. That doesn’t make much sense. Last week, the backfield was a true 50/50 split, and the two combined for 35 carries. Singletary handled nine of the team’s 10 red-zone rushing attempts and scored twice. The offense isn’t pretty, but he owns the red-zone role and can handle 15-plus touches. Anything above +200 is a buy for me, even in a likely negative game script.

The Lions are coming off a loss to the Eagles, but they have a tendency to underperform on the road outdoors against good teams. On the other hand, they tend to blow out bad teams at home, and the 2-9 Giants are definitely bad. Detroit's two-headed rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will shred a New York front that is dead-last in the league in defensive rush EPA. Even if QB Jaxson Dart returns to the Giants lineup after suffering a concussion, they don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.

Walker has rushed for 65+ yards in five of his last seven games, and he gets a favorable matchup this week against Tennessee. The Seahawks are 13.5-point favorites, which should lead to a rushing game script against a Titans squad that ranks 26th in DVOA and EPA against the run. Seattle has been employing a 55:45 split in carries between Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, Charbonnet is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush attempt while Walker has been significantly more efficient with 4.5 ypa. That could lead to a larger share of the workload for Walker moving forward, since head coach Mike Macdonald said that he's "earned more opportunities to get the ball” in Monday's press conference.

The newcomer gets a strong matchup against the Titans. Rashid Shaheed stepped into the No. 3 role last week, running a route on 73% of snaps. He saw five targets and a carry, and now draws a much softer opponent in Tennessee, a defense allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts. It’s a solid price for an offense that should push 25+ points on Sunday, and this could be a spot where they dial up more designed touches for the speedster. Tory Holton didn’t practice on Wednesday and could be headed to IR, which would leave the field-stretching WR3 role fully in Shaheed’s hands. I’d play this down to about +230.

There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup, with uncertainty in both the Arizona backfield and Jacksonville’s receiver group. What we do know is Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again, and Jacoby Brissett isn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield. Brissett and Michael Wilson connected for 185 yards last week against San Francisco. Wilson didn’t score, but with the injuries in the backfield and Trey McBride drawing most of the defensive attention, he has a real chance to grab his second touchdown of the season as Arizona’s de facto No. 1 wideout. I’d play this down to +180. McBride sitting at -130 to score is wild.

The Over is 5-1 in Arizona's last six, and 4-0 in Jacksonville's road games this season. Those trends should continue.

Both teams struggle to protect the goal line when opponents breach the red zone. Jacksonville's secondary is still giving up big plays too often, while the Cardinals are struggling to stop the run and keep turning the ball over in bad spots.

Arizona's offense will put up some numbers, with an offense ranked fifth in third down conversion rate and 11th in completion rate. I like both teams to clear the 24-point threshold and push this total Over.  

Bowers put in a good game against the Cowboys on MNF, targeted 12 times for seven catches and 72 yards. After being slowed by injuries for most of the season, the Raiders TE is finally healthy and quickly becoming Geno Smith’s favorite option. And speaking of Geno, he goes from facing the zone-heavy schemes of the Cowboys to the most man-centric secondary from Cleveland. Smith’s career man vs. zone splits are the thing of legend among prop bettors. Bowers projections top out at 72 yards with most on the other side of this total. 

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the league (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Raiders.. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This year, the tough Cleveland Browns run defense has given up a paltry 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DEs has been very good this year, projecting as the best in football.

For his career, Goedert , naturally gets up to play Dallas. He’s posted 30 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven matchups with the NFC East rival while going for 40-plus in four of those clashes. This year’s Dallas defense is different, however. New coordinator Matt Eberflus runs a lot more zone coverage than his predecessors in Big D, utilizing two high safeties at a high rate. While that can take away some deeper looks, it does allow savvy TEs like Goedert to find seams in the zone underneath. The Cowboys have given up the sixth most receptions to tight ends so far, which has led to the 13th most receiving yards to the position. Week 12 player projections all sit well beyond Goedert’s current receiving yards prop, ranging from 38 yards to a ceiling of 48 yards on Sunday, with the bulk of models at 44-plus.

I’m not interested in chasing Cowboys touchdown props given how shaky their defense has looked. Jalen Hurts is getting nearly every goal-line carry, and he should see even more work indoors at Jerry World, where opponents are averaging around 30 points per game this season. Hurts scored the Eagles’ only touchdown last week and is one of just two quarterbacks with 20+ red-zone carries. His efficiency could easily tick up — he has only five touchdowns on 10 carries inside the 5-yard line. If the Eagles push toward 30 points, Hurts has a real chance to find the end zone more than once in a big divisional matchup.

This Week 12 long shot stays indoors and features a receiver who already has a solid connection with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins. With Michael Penix out and Drake London sidelined by a PCL injury, the door opens for KhaDarel Hodge. In Week 8, with Cousins under center and London inactive, Hodge saw eight targets and ran a season-high 21 routes. Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor and is dealing with a collarbone issue that may be limiting him. It’s a speculative play, but Hodge has a real chance to be a top-two WR for Atlanta in a favorable matchup. This is a full-unit swing that could close around +500 if he’s confirmed as the WR2.

Things don't look good for the Falcons, who are on a five-game losing streak and just lost QB Michael Penix to a season-ending injury. That said, Kirk Cousins is one of the best backup QBs in the league, and Atlanta is facing New Orleans, which might be the worst team in the NFL. The Saints are 2-8 while ranking 30th in the league in DVOA. The Saints shouldn't be favored against anybody except the Titans, especially not a division rival that won't take this game lightly.

The Rams won't be able to run the ball at will against Tampa's tough run stop, but Sean McVay needs to find a way to get the ball in Williams' hands. He's proven a capable pass catcher and projections for his receiving yards sit as high as 17+. The Bucs may limit RBs on the ground but because of that, foes have found other ways to get those guys involved. Tampa Bay has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs on the season. Last week, Buffalo couldn't get RB James Cook going on the ground but he did catch three passes for 66 yards.

Egbuka's player projections for Week 12 are very positive, given game script, the tall total, and fast track inside SoFi Stadium. All but one model consulted comes in above 70 yards with the bulk of those forecasts at 73 or higher with a ceiling of 82 yards from our Covers.com projections. The Rams run one of the highest rates of zone coverage in the league, which sets up well for Mayfield and Egbukja. Tampa Bay’s passer sees his output spike versus zone, including the third best passer rating against zone coverage among QBs (108.7). Mayfield also sees an uptick in rating when playing inside. In turn, Egbuka also sees a jump in rating versus zone defense. He’s been the Bucs best zone buster and sits 17th among all wide receivers versus zone schemes at PFF. 

Legette saw the second-most targets on the team last week with eight and turned them into four catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. It was his second game with 80 or more yards since Week 7, and his usage continues to trend upward. The matchup is even more favorable this week. San Francisco’s defense is already missing key contributors and may be without two additional starting linebackers. Jacoby Brissett just set the single-game completion record against this unit, and the 49ers have allowed 114 points across their last four games. This could easily be a softer matchup than Atlanta. THE BLITZ projects Legette for 37 yards, ahead of Jalen Coker, who’s competing for WR2 targets.

Bryce Young finally showed some life last week, throwing for more yards than any Carolina quarterback has in franchise history. Now he gets a prime-time matchup against a defense that just allowed 47 completions to Jacoby Brissett, an NFL single-game record. Tetairoa McMillan offers one of the safest receiving floors in the league. He accounts for about 30% of Carolina’s targets and 40% of the air yards. Last week, he put up 130 yards on 12 targets with two touchdowns, and he led all Week-11 players with four red-zone targets. This TD price opened at +200, and the adjustment is the only reason it’s not an A-plus play.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.