NFL Picks

This Indianapolis defense has problems with tight ends, allowing the second most yardage to TEs and five touchdowns to the position. The Colts don’t have any quality coverage linebackers, and the safeties sit below average in their coverage ratings at PFF. Pitts, who is currently Atlanta’s highest rated receiver versus man coverage, sees his Week 10 player projections ranging from 42 yards to closer to 50 yards receiving. Before coming in just short of his Week 9 prop total, Pitts has gone Over his receiving bar in three of the four previous outings.

Daniel Jones had a setback last week, but Alec Pierce didn’t—he went for 115 yards on six catches. Pierce played more snaps than Michael Pittman and is averaging 3.4 catches for 71.6 yards this year, though his lack of touchdowns has kept his price low in Week 10. His production is way up from last season, and with his current volume, finding the end zone feels like a matter of time. I’d play Pierce to +220, and Josh Downs at +260 or better is also worth a look in Germany this Sunday morning. If the Dolphins can hang 34 on the Falcons, the Colts should have no trouble moving the ball.

Henry has cashed the Over in rushing yards in two of his last three, and he just cooked the Dolphins for 119 yards in Week 9. The Vikings are also poor against the run, ranking 20th in the league. 

I’m taking Isaiah Likely at +325 over Mark Andrews at +175, and the price is a big part of it, but not everything. Likely played more snaps and saw more targets and receptions last week, while Andrews found the end zone twice—driving up his odds this week. All three Baltimore tight ends saw red-zone looks, and with an indoor matchup against a top-five matchup versus the position, this is a solid spot to target for a Week 10 touchdown. I’d play it down to +290.

Bucs RB Bucky Irving has been ruled out for Week 10 which means another start for Rachaad White. White could find it tough to find running room against a New England defense that allows a league-low 75.4 rushing yards per game. That said, the Pats are vulnerable to backs in the passing game, ranking 26th in the NFL with 40.8 receiving yards per game allowed to the position. White’s biggest strengths are his pass-catching and pass-blocking abilities, which keeps him on the field on third downs. He's logged more than 20 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should eclipse that number again. 

I like the Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye. Tampa has a handful of statement wins on the ledger, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game. Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive weeks, and the Pats offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year, after all. Additionally, while the New England defense is popping in most advanced metrics, the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA – which accounts for strength of schedule. New England ranking 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is a notable gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket. 

Nick Chubb missed practice on Thursday, which is bad news for him but great news for rookie Woody Marks. If Chubb sits, Marks could step into a full RB1 workload at home in the dome, with Davis Mills starting in place of CJ Stroud. This opened around +300 but will likely drop below +200 and could close near +140 if Chubb is ruled out. It’s not the easiest matchup for the offense, but opportunity outweighs everything here. Dare Ogunbowale profiles more as a pass-catching option and shouldn’t cut into early-down or red-zone carries. The only concern is the injury uncertainty with Chubb.

The Texans are just 29th in the NFL in offensive success rate. That struggling attack will be even worse if QB C.J. Stroud is unable to suit up after getting concussed on Sunday. Backup Davis Mills won't be able to move the ball through the air and Houston also won't be able to run against a Jags D that ranks second in defensive rush success rate. That said, the Texans stop unit leads the league in defensive DVOA while ranking second in EPA and success rate. They'll shut down a Jags offense that ranks 28th in success rate and could be missing No. 1 WR Brian Thomas Jr. due to an ankle injury.

These offenses are bad, but not this bad. We’ve seen both teams fly over this total time and again this year, and that makes the Over the smart play in this game.

Browns OC Tommy Rees will handle play-calling duties this weekend, and that could mean more involvement for one of the team’s best pass-catchers. David Njoku thrived under Rees last year when he was the tight ends coach and pass-game specialist, and he’s in a good spot again Sunday against a weak defense in tough conditions. Njoku leads all Cleveland tight ends in red-zone targets since Week 5 with six, catching four for two touchdowns. I’m playing this at +250.

The Carolina Panthers have now won in Bryce Young's previous four starts and he’s been helped by Rico Dowdle who has grabbed the RB1 job from Chuba Hubbard, after some incredible performances that have seen him third in the NFL’s rushing charts, with just three starts to his name. With just one win to their name it’s not a surprise that the New Orleans Saints are 1-7 ATS as an underdog, but given the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in conference games, and 6-3 overall, we have to back them to cover the spread.

Is the Panthers’ passing attack elite? No. But getting a WR1 with a 26% target share and 43% air-yard share at +190 for a touchdown in a great matchup is pretty close. It might be the Rico Dowdle show in Carolina, but rookie Tetairoa McMillan is a bit long for a TD this week. Bryce Young is coming off a shaky performance in a game the Panthers still won as big underdogs against the Packers and the Saints aren't Green Bay. With defenses likely keying on Dowdle, McMillan could benefit from softer coverage, especially as Carolina controls more possession with Tyler Shough’s favorite target, Rashid Shaheed, now in Seattle. Only six receivers in the league have more receptions of 10-plus yards than McMillan, and his 10 red-zone targets rank eighth among wideouts. I’d play this down to +165.

New York ranks 30th in PFF run defense grade, 32nd in run defense DVOA and has surrendered the highest EPA per rush, while Monangai is churning out yards in chunks the past three weeks with 6.1 yards per for 281 total. Sure, D'Andre Swift (groin) is expected to return Sunday, but this Monangai number is still far too low -- especially considering the rookie could see the lionshare of touches.

Williams has averaged a respectable 4.6 yards per carry and has skyrocketed over this total in consecutive games for 77 total rushing yards on just eight totes. The Giants have also been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks with the fourth-most rushing attempts for the fifth-most yards surrendered this season. Additionally, New York has allowed an opposing QB to rush for 17 or more yards in six of nine games.

Achane has proven just as capable a receiver then as a ball carrier. He’s drawn the second highest target share among RBs (22.1%) and is running the fourth most routes for the position, averaging just shy of 30 yards through the air per game.

In the touchdown market, I have buy-points set for all the big names. Josh Allen is -120 for me—any time I can get better than that, I’m in. Last week, he opened at +110 and closed around -120 to -125, and this TD line has been as short as -165 earlier this year. Allen ran for two touchdowns and threw for another last week, marking the 47th time he’s done both in a game—a new NFL record. With the Bills using their own version of the tush push and still chasing the Patriots for the division lead, Allen isn’t in a spot to slow down. He has four touchdowns over his last two games.

Knight was held to 27 yards on nine carries against the Cowboys piss-poor run defense last week. Arizona's other RB Emari Demercado returned from an ankle injury and balled out, rushing for 79 yards on 14 carries. Demercado is the more efficient runner and has more big-play potential. Knight will still play a role at the goal line and on third-downs but expect fewer carries moving forward. A lower usage rate is just one reason to fade Knight on Sunday. The Cardinals are 7-point dogs against the Seahawks so we could see a negative game script and more passing for Arizona. In addition, Seattle allows just 63.1 rushing yards per game on 3.2 ypa to opposing RBs — both numbers good for second-best in the league.

Rashid Shaheed was a big name move during the trade deadline, leaving the passive passing game of New Orleans for the Seahawks’ air attack. Shaheed will help Seattle a lot, but more as a player who can stretch the field and take attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His first game in this new playbook with QB Sam Darnold comes against Arizona’s zone-centric schemes that utilize two high safeties to prevent big plays over the top. Shaheed’s speed is great against man coverage but his production sinks versus zone and Darnold has struggled versus zone schemes the past two seasons as a starter. Shaheed’s yardage total is ticking up with people expecting big things in his debut but we won’t see the same target share as he did in NOLA and many player projections come in well below 40.5 yards, with a low of 30.65 yards.

I want exposure to the Rams’ run game this week with the 49ers’ defense falling apart. The D-line just lost first-round rookie Mykel Williams to an ACL tear, and three starters up front are already out. On top of that, two linebackers are questionable, and Fred Warner remains sidelined. This sets up as a great matchup for Kyren Williams, and this is the best TD price we’ve seen on him all year. He was -185 last week and played 81% of the first-half snaps. There’s a reason Blake Corum sits at +425. Plus, Puka Nakua is banged up and limited with a rib injury, which could shift more touches toward the backfield.

Nacua has topped 90 receiving yards in five of eight games, and even with a bye week and a missed game, he's still fourth in receiving yards (711) and tied for second in receptions (61) for the year. The Pro Bowler is pacing the NFL in PFF receiving grade and sports an elite 83.6% catch rate while being targeted on 36.9% of his routes, too. The 49ers have also been beaten through the air this season with ranks of 26th in PFF coverage grade and 25th in pass defense DVOA while also allowing the eighth-highest EPA per dropback and catch percentage to opposing wide receivers.

Payback is a bitch and the Lions will use last year’s upset loss to the Commanders in the playoffs as motivation in Week 10. That means Dan Campbell & Co. will pour it on and kick the Commies while they’re down. Washington’s defense is dreadful, sitting in the bottom third of the NFL is most pass defensive metrics. It’s given up 34 “home run” plays of 20-plus receiving yards – tied for worst in the NFL – and this man-heavy coverage (with multiple injuries in the secondary) is going to get exposed by Detroit WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown rates as of the best WRs vs. man coverage and his ability to pick up yards after the catch really twists the knife on Washington, which has allowed the second most YAC this season. Those bonus gains will bet St. Brown Over his longest reception prop total in Week 10. 

The Commanders are in bad shape with Jayden Daniels done for the season and the Lions on deck in Week 10. Washington has leaned into running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt heavily in the past month and a half, with JCM recording 12 or more carries in four of his last five games. Washington runs at one of the highest rates in the league and without its QB1, could be hitting the ground even more as it tries to keep Detroit’s pass rush away from Marcus Mariota. Most projections for Croskey-Merritt are north of 12 attempts with a ceiling closer to 14 carries. I feel his prop pricing is a bit tempered this week due to a spot on the injury report. However, this wasn’t for anything serious but rather for dental work, which won’t slow down his rushing attempts in Week 10.

Despite being a backup last year, OLB Nick Herbig notched 5.5 sacks and ranked first among edge defenders in pass rush win rate. This year he's already racked up 4.5 sacks while leading the league in pass rush win rate. He's been rotating on the edge with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, but with Highsmith limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury, Herbig could be in line for more snaps. Pittsburgh's pass rush should feast against a Chargers O-line that is vulnerable on the edge and surrendered six sacks last week. Pro Bowl tackle Rashawn Slater has missed the entire season due to an injury and Joe Alt is now done for the year as well.

This Sunday night, the Steelers take on a Chargers stop unit that ranks second highest zone rate in the NFL. Metcalf’s PFF rating against zone coverage tops the Steelers receiving corps and the last time he took on a defense that goes zone as much as the Bolts, he reeled in all five balls his way for 128 yards – including an 80-yard reception – versus the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. As for Los Angeles, it has allowed WR1s to post solid numbers this season. According to FTN, top wideouts average 10 targets and 76.1 yards per game against the Chargers. Player projections for Metcalf expect a return to form for the veteran WR, ranging from 56.3 yards to a high of 64 yards – well beyond his current prop total. Despite a down year, Metcalf has still hit 50 yards or more in five of his eight outings in 2025.

Shoutout to Covers’ Jason Logan for putting this TD angle on my radar for Monday night. Saquon Barkley is dealing with a groin injury, and the Tush Push might be the best way to close out Week 10. Back on May 21 at the league’s spring meetings, Packers CEO Mark Murphy called the Tush Push “bad for the game” and said it “involves no skill.” The proposal to ban it actually came from Green Bay. Jalen Hurts might take that personally — and could find the end zone multiple times Monday night.

This one is personal for the Philadelphia Eagles. In the offseason, the Packers lobbied to have the “Tush Push” banned and brought a vote to the league, which was ultimately shot down. So, naturally, if there’s a shot the Eagles can use the “Brotherly Shove” to score a touchdown in Week 10’s matchup with Green Bay, you know they’re going to take it. Jalen Hurts hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in two games, which is a notable drought for the Eagles QB – often powered by the “Tush Push”. In fact, Hurts hasn’t gone three straight games without a rushing TD since the end of the 2023 season (in which he sat most of Week 18 and didn’t score in the Wild Card). This offensive line is fresh and ready to serve some sour grapes to Green Bay on MNF. FYI: Two TDs is paying +1000. Just sayin'.

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.