NFL Picks

Philip Rivers averaged 4.7 air yards per target last week and I do not expect much to change in his second start. 

Indianapolis is down Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and this pass defense has given up big gains through the air, allowing 12.4 yards per completion over the past three games – tied for fourth most. On the season, Indianapolis’ man-centric schemes have given up the 10th most receptions of 20-plus yards. Jennings leads the 49ers attack in explosive plays, with seven catches for 20 or more yards, and also tops the team with the most targets versus man coverage. With fellow WR Ricky Pearsall once again injured, Jennings’ role in this offense gets a shot in the arm. He’ll be the primary deep threat and while he hasn’t played in many indoor games throughout his career, his yards per reception soars from seven to more than 11 yards in domed venues.

Marcus Mariota injured his right hand in Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia, requiring stitches, and is listed as day-to-day on the short week while also dealing with a quads injury. With starter Jayden Daniels shut down, the Commanders would turn to journeyman Josh Johnson under center.

Dallas lugs a three-game slide to the nation’s capital, most recently getting blasted by the L.A. Chargers at home on Sunday. The Cowboys did beat up on the Commanders in Week 7, winning a 44-22 shootout at home.

If and when Mariota is ruled out, his spread will jump to the key number of -6 and with no shortage of support for Dallas, I could see this closing -6.5 come Thursday. 

The Cowboys can put up points against this terrible Washington defense, which is something the Commanders might not be able to do with a QB3 at the wheel and a banged-up offensive line in front of him.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

The Vikings have a QB question on Christmas Day, with starter J.J. McCarthy leaving Week 16’s win over Giants with a throwing hand injury. Minnesota is slated for one of the December 25 games, leaving a very small window for “Nine” to heal up. His X-rays were negative, but the first-year starter wasn’t able to hold a football. And it’s not just McCarthy hurting heading into the holiday. Center Ryan Kelly and running back Jordan Mason are dealing with ailments. The Lions, on the other hand, pissed away a Week 16 home game to the Steelers. That puts their postseason chances in dire jeopardy. Detroit needs help from the other NFC contenders to qualify for the tournament and can’t afford another loss. This spread opened Lions -5.5 at Minnesota and the vig on that spread is climbing, indicating a potential move to the key number of -6 or higher.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.

This sets up as a solid bounce-back spot for both defenses. The Chiefs are allowing just 15 points per game at home and should have their foot on the gas in their home finale. Denver’s defense is also primed to rebound after an uncharacteristic outing. They rank at or near the top of the NFL in many key defensive categories and should be in bully mode against this extremely watered-down Kansas City offense. Three straight Chiefs’ games have stayed below this mark, with those games seeing an average combined score of just 31.3.

These are two capable offenses with experienced quarterbacks, and there are just far too many penalizing flags thrown on defenses week in, week out for the Texans and Chargers to go Under the number in ideal playing conditions at SoFi Stadium. This is a huge matchup for the AFC playoff picture, so I'm not anticipating any quit on either side of the ball from either team, and let's not forget good defense also creates offensive scoring opportunities. Plus, the Bolts have put up an average of 27.8 points while ranking above average in offensive DVOA across their past five home games. 

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

The Steelers are 3-4 ATS on the road this season and 1-2 ATS when they’re road favorites. So we're taking an improving Browns.

Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.

There will be Costco-sized scoring in this non-consequential non-conference contest. 

We have two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it fly and two defenses that are already planning their flights to Cancun in two weeks. The Cardinals and Bengals rank No. 1 and No. 2 in passing play percentage and also rank 31st and 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback.

Cincinnati is surging with Joe Burrow back and having “fun” playing football, passing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a squash of the Dolphins in Week 16. 

These pass defenses sit near the bottom of most metrics, including allowing a surplus of explosive plays. Arizona enters Week 17 with injuries at all three levels of the defense.

This total opened at 51.5 and that number is still available on Sunday night, but things are moving quick. Some books are already up to 53 points. FYI: Extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks warm with some moderate winds.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.