NFL Picks

The Pats have contained running backs on the ground but have been vulnerable through the air. They allowed the fifth-most receptions against RBs during the regular season. That bodes well for Seahawks backup RB George Holani who has seen his snaps increase after Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in the Divisional Round. Holani will get plenty of reps on passing downs since he's a better blocker than Kenneth Walker III. Holani reeled in three of four targets for 27 yards in the Conference Championship.

Kenneth Walker III shredded San Francisco's brutal defense in the Divisional Round but has struggled against strong run defenses which the Patriots have. The Pats held opposing running backs to 77.1 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry during the regular season — both numbers good for fifth-best in the NFL. They've been even better in the playoffs, holding RBs to 38.7 rushing yards per game on 2.4 ypa. Walker was limited to 62 yards on 19 carries against the Rams in the NFC Conference Championship. He had seven regular season games against teams in the top 10 in defensive rush success rate and was held below 70 yards and 4.0 yards per rush in five of those contests. 

Patriots QB Drake Maye has a longest rush of 14+ yards in five of his last seven games. He's been flushed out of the pocket and forced to make plays with his legs due to poor pass protection. That should be the case in the Super Bowl with Seattle boasting the sixth-highest pressure rate in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks scrambled 43 times against the Seahawks during the regular season — the second-highest number in the league.

Henry logged 45+ receiving yards in five of his last seven regular season games before racking up 64 yards in the Wild Card Round. He had just here catches for 17 total yards over the last two rounds but should bounce back here. Seattle's stingy defense struggles against tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receptions (105) and the sixth-most yards (1,080) to the position during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Seahawks gave up 59 yards to 49ers TE Jake Tonges and 62 yards to Rams TE Colby Parkinson. The Seahawks play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and Henry had the fourth-highest receiving grade among tight ends against zone coverage per Pro Football Focus.

The red-zone matchup isn’t ideal for Rhamondre Stevenson, but two things are hard to ignore: the price and the workload. This is a strong number for a back projected to handle 80% or more of the carries. While the Patriots haven’t spent much time in the red zone this postseason, Stevenson has dominated the backfield, accounting for roughly eight of every 10 running back opportunities. TreVeyon Henderson has been largely phased out, as the coaching staff continues to lean on the veteran in high-leverage spots. That trust was clear against Denver, where Stevenson logged 25 carries compared to just three for Henderson.

This is my moonshot Super Bowl touchdown pick. Elijah Arroyo sat out the NFC Championship and hasn’t played since Week 14, which has caused his role to be largely forgotten. Before the bye, he saw five red-zone targets over seven games and was a real part of the offense when healthy. While AJ Barner has taken over as the No. 1 tight end, Arroyo could still see around 40% of the snaps and run roughly 30% of the routes. He’s priced like a non-factor, yet he’s targeted on nearly one of every five routes and owns a similar air-yard share to Barner. Per the Covers projections, he stands out as the best +EV touchdown play on the board.

With that caution in mind, and the fact that Sam Darnold is sneaky fast, I could see the Seattle QB opting to take off when no one is open and the pocket collapses -rather than force a throw. Darnold’s projections between 9 and 12 yards rushing.

It’s fitting that a San Francisco son and former Stanford star find the end zone in Santa Clara. And it’s absolutely fitting that a guy who scored a TD with the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51 get a second shot at a Lombardi as a member of the very same team that denied him back in 2017. Seahawks have shown weaknesses to TEs this season and Pats love their 12 personnel. 

I've already got a little on Rashid Shaheed for MVP at 50/1, and that means I like his chances of breaking a big play or two Sunday, while hopefully taking one to the house at +350. His role on special teams is difference-making as he has two kickoff-return TDs and one punt-return TD in his 11 games with the Hawks. He can get behind defenses, and if Christian Gonzalez is fixated on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold might be able to spring the speedster. He might not get six targets, but he will get one or two deepshots that could change the game.

Hollins missed four games after landing on the shelf following Week 16, but in the six games prior, he led the team with seven targets per game. He also logged more snaps in Week 16 and the conference championship than any other New England Patriots wide receiver, signaling clear trust when he’s healthy. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season, and Matthew Stafford showed last week that this defense can be attacked through the air. It’s a steep price, but one that makes sense for a receiver who should be competing for the team lead in targets.