NFL Picks

George Pickens had a 44-yarder the last time he played the Commanders and has hit this in nine games this season. 

Rodriguez has taken most of the control of the backfield over the past few weeks and this is a great matchup against the Cowboys defense. 

Detroit's pass defense has been awful and the run defense looked just as bad last week. That said, this banged-up Vikings offense won't be able to take advantage. J.J. McCarthy is out which means undrafted rookie Max Brosmer will start at QB. Brosmer previously started in Week 12 and threw for just 126 yards and four picks with 4.2 ypa. Minnesota's top two RBs Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are dealing with ankle injuries. In addition, stud LT Christian Darrisaw is on the IR and Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly is likely out after suffering his third concussion of the year. With Brosmer at the helm, the Vikes won't be able to keep up with an explosive Lions attack that will be playing with desperation.

The Lions could dominate the ball on Thursday, facing a Minnesota team likely starting Max Brosmer that is without a key running back, the starting center, and maybe even TE1. The Lions will be a motivated group after the dramatic loss to Pittsburgh at home on Sunday. The Lions' passing game is spreading the ball around more these days, giving TD value to guys outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jameson Williams is a good price at +195 (buy to +160/+165) as he is getting 23% of the targets over the last three weeks and matching the yardage output of St. Brown, but is 70-plus cents longer for a TD. Since the Lions' bye in Week 8, Williams has had a TD in five of eight games, including one vs. the Vikes back in Week 9.

This sets up as another game with a lopsided time-of-possession script. Kansas City ran just 43 offensive plays last week compared to 70 for Tennessee, and a similar dynamic could be in play again. The big-name Bronco options like RJ Harvey and Courtland Sutton are tough to buy at current prices, but the Pat Bryant injury opens the door for value elsewhere. Bryant had been carving into Troy Franklin’s target share before suffering a concussion on a short week, making his availability unlikely. With Bryant out of the picture, Franklin’s role should expand. He has quietly scored five touchdowns over his last nine games, and his usage trend is pointing up. Franklin has a realistic path to becoming the No. 2 option in the passing game this week and could lead the team in receiving yards. This is the same receiver who was seeing double-digit targets before the bye and posted 84 yards on four catches and eight targets against Kansas City back in Week 11.

Franklin was Bo Nix’s top target for most of the season, but Pat Bryant started to dig into that target share over the last four games. Bryant suffered a scary injury last week and is unlikely to suit up on Xmas Day. That should pump Franklin’s number up. He’s recorded four or more catches in six of the last eight, including the previous two games. He caught four of eight balls for 84 yards vs Kansas City back in November. You can find Over 3.5 receptions for Franklin as pricy as -106, so shop around for the best return.

The Texans have won seven in a row with three of those win coming as underdogs. They lead the league in defensive EPA and ppg allowed (16.6). Their ability to bring pressure off the edge with Danielle Hunter (13 sacks) and Will Anderson (11.5 sacks) will cause problems for L.A., which has struggled in pass protection with both stud tackles on the IR. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud and this balanced Houston offense should have some success moving the ball against a Chargers defense that looks fraudulent despite not allowing many points in recent weeks. The Bolts rank 22nd in yards allowed per rush (4.4) and also sit in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate.

This battle between the Bolts and Texans will feel like a playoff game and what do we often see in high-stakes showdowns like that: QBs on the run. Herbert has the wheels and is coming off a eight-carry, 42-yard rushing day versus Dallas. Houston can get after the QB and as allowed some bigger rushing days to mobile QBs, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix – all rushed for 20 yards or more versus the Texans. Yards will be hard to come by for both teams and Herbert will have to pick them up when he can. Some projections sit as high as 27 yards rushing for this Saturday matchup.

Should Lamat Jackson sit out Week 17, Baltimore still has a serviceable second stringer in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley but more importantly has Derrick Henry. Throughout his career, the bruising running back does his best work in December and is once again on a tear this month, rushing for 94, 100, and 128 yards in the past three games. Henry smashes through a Packers run stop that has come undone, allowing 110-plus rushing yards in three of its last four and allowing a seventh highest success rate per carry since Week 12. Baltimore can dominate time and possession, taking the heavy work off whichever QB is under center, while boosting one of the better defenses in the second half of 2025. The Ravens stop unit stumbled out of the blocks but is a Top 7 defense since Week 9.

Both teams could be missing their franchise QBs with Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love exiting in Week 16 with injuries. Even if they suit up, they'll be less than full strength and face solid stop units. The Ravens struggled on defense at the start of the season due to the absence of LB Roquan Smith and multiple injuries on the line and in the secondary. However, they've gotten many of those injured players back and rank fifth in the league in defense success rate since Week 6. Meanwhile, the Packers are seventh in the league in defensive rush success rate and fifth in yards allowed per carry (4.0) which will help them slow down a Baltimore attack that relies heavily on Derrick Henry. 

The Dolphins offense is much more versatile with Quinn Ewers under center. Before benching Tua, Miami was actively trying to keep the ball out of his hands. Ewers, however, threw for 260 yards last week – mark Tua had passed only twice all season. Tampa’s defense is dreadful and this once mighty run-stop unit is broken. Achane goes big. Ewers stretches the field. And the Bucs will be scoreboard watching. They could think about pulling their starters in the second half should they be up big and Carolina be down to Seattle, protecting themselves for a Week 18 NFC South title game.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. In this contest, Baker Mayfield is projected by the predictive model to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.2. . Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. Right now, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook.. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.. Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.03 seconds per play.. This year, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a colossal 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.

The Steelers are 3-4 ATS on the road this season and 1-2 ATS when they’re road favorites. So we're taking an improving Browns.

You’re going to give me a +120 ATTD return on the best TE in the league against the worst defense when it comes to defending tight ends? I’ll bite. Cincy has allowed 15 scores to the position. McBride has nine TDs in his last 10 games. This game has the highest total on the Week 17 board, so expect plenty of passing (from the two highest passing rates in the league) and points.

Not only have the Cardinals dropped seven straight, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in six of those games. It’s been a bit of a different story for the Bengals, too. Cincy has covered the number in four of the past five, and the Bengals are 2-2 outright since star quarterback Joe Burrow returned. Arizona has also allowed an average of 34.7 points per game during the losing streak while surrendering the fourth-highest EPA per play, so I’m expecting another big game from Burrow on Sunday. Additionally, the Bengals have also shown more bite on defense since Burrow’s returned, with Cincy allowing the 11th-lowest EPA per play compared to the third-highest mark through the four games prior.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Over is 6-2 since Jacksonville's bye week, in large part due to the offensive explosion led by Trevor Lawrence. Liam Coen is a playcalling wizard, and it's led to the Jaguars putting up points by the bunches, averaging 33 points a game since the bye.

The Colts defense is riddled with injuries, and just allowed the 49ers to cover the total by themselves on Monday night. And with another total sitting in the 40s, I'm taking the Over yet again.

The Colts must win this game and get a ton of help to reach the playoffs, so they'll go down swinging until the end. Jacksonville should get well into the 30s yet again, while I expect the Colts to get enough done through the air to push this total into the 50s. 

The Jaguars have covered the spread in six straight games, and have done so by an average of nearly 17 points per game. I'm expecting the same on Sunday against a Colts team that just got destroyed by Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

Jacksonville's offense is red-hot, and the defense is getting stops and forcing turnovers when it matters. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 12 touchdowns vs zero picks in his last four, and the Jaguars run defense is one of the best in the NFL.

The Colts will struggle to get the ground game going, and Philip Rivers will be under pressure from this Jacksonville pass rush. Not only should the Jaguars cover, but I like them to win by at least two touchdowns.

The model projects the Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.8% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Panthers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.3%) vs. running backs this year (79.3%).. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Seattle's unit has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 7th-best in the NFL.

The Seahawks are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.. The projections expect the Seahawks as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.. The Seahawks have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.. Carolina's defense profiles as the 8th-best in football this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, totaling 0.87 per game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.6% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.6% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.

The Eagles didn't pull away from the Washington Commanders in Week 16 until third-string QB Josh Johnson entered the game, and Philly ranked 27th in offensive DVOA while generating the ninth-lowest EPA per play over the prior six weeks. So, with the Bills rattling off four consecutive wins and sporting a 6-1 record at Highmark Stadium, I don't think the Eagles can put enough points on the board to cover the number in Week 17.

The Bears have a rare rest edge at this point in the season thanks to playing last Saturday and the 49ers featuring in Monday Night Football. That two-day edge is especially valuable on a travel week and sets up Chicago for success against the weakest defense it’s faced in a long time. This offense has been one of the best in the second half of the schedule, despite some strong defensive opposition. Chicago has played the Packers twice, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota in the past six outings. San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks well below those foes in defensive measurements.

These are two of the better offense in the second half of the season, sitting Top 10 in EPA per play and EPA per dropback since Week 9. The Bears have put up points against some tough defensive foes in recent weeks. Played the Packers twice, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. The last time Chicago took on a stop unit as soft as San Fran’s it hung 47 points on the Bengals. The 49ers have put up points as well, with 26 or more in six of their last seven outings – going 5-2 O/U in that span. They just watched the “Ghost of Xmas Past” – AKA Philip Rivers throw for 277 yards and two tuddies.

The Falcons aren’t going to the tournament but continue to battle with veteran QB Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta has won back-to-back road games and Monday will be just its second homestand in the past six weeks. 

Los Angeles is a much stiffer test defensively than the Falcons’ recent foes but this team has a bevy of offensive weapons, especially with the return of WR Drake London, and head coach Raheem Morris could be coaching for his job on MNF.

This spread opened Atlanta +7.5 and jumped to +8.5, which is an underrated key number in football betting. I like the fight in the Falcons enough to take the pile of points with the home side.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.. With a high 9.3% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Kyren Williams rates among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. As it relates to air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the towering 98th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).