NFL Picks

Allen averages almost 10 yards per catch against zone schemes (compared to 5.0 vs. man) and faces Falcons’ secondary running the 10th highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL He’s been most effective against zone, with McVay rolling out 12 and even 13 personnel, drawing 18 of his 32 total targets and 15 of his 24 receptions against zone defenses. Allen has drawn four or more targets in three of his last five games while snatching two or more of those balls in four of those showings. He’s posted reception longs of 12, 15, and 27 yards in three of those contests, each going Over his longest reception prop. Factoring in player projections for MNF, Allen is expected to catch two passes for an average of about 10 yards per reception. With the L.A. offense missing Davante Adams and Atlanta not allowing anything over the top, the tight ends will play a bigger role in passing game. I think the ceiling is higher for Allen.

Los Angeles’ biggest weakness has been its secondary in the second half of the season. This zone-heavy has been picked apart by elite WRs since November and London ranks as the No. 3 receiver versus zone coverage at PFF. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is also notably better against zone, including boasting the 11th highest percentage of “catchable balls” thrown against those schemes. London has played just 10 games due to injuries this season yet has drawn eight or more targets in all but two of those outings. He’s recorded six or more receptions in six of those games and his Week 17 forecasts all call for at least six grabs with a ceiling of seven catches on MNF. With the Falcons tabbed as sizable home underdogs, game script paints a pass-positive picture for Atlanta’s offense.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

Despite having nothing to play for, the Bengals sound like they’ll send out the starters in Week 18. 

Following Sunday’s one-sided win over Arizona, head coach Zac Taylor told the media that QB Joe Burrow would be on the field for this Battle of Ohio against the Browns. That pumped up the spread from Cincinnati -6.5 to a touchdown and has also sent the total ticking upward.

Bookies opened this number at 43.5 points, but many books have jumped up to the key number off 44 and beyond, with some shops dealing 44.5 O/U.

The Bengals offense is humming with 82 points over the last two outings and Cleveland should be able to chip in with some offense against this bad Bengals defense.