NFL Picks

No team in the NFL has attempted more field goals than the Texans, averaging over three FGAs per game. Houston’s offense is much more efficient at home compared to on the road, converting on less than 34% of third down attempts and scoring touchdowns on just 45.45% of its red zone trips as a visitor. Fairbairn has recorded eight or more points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including each of the past nine contests. While he sees a spike in scoring inside NRG Stadium, he still averages 8.3 kicking points on the road. Monday’s game at Acrisure Stadium will present mild weather, considering the time of year. Temperatures will hover around freezing with sustained winds at 8 mph and gusts flirting with 20 mph at times. 

Chubb was losing snaps to fellow RB Jawhar Jordan over the past month but with Jordon ruled out for the Wild Card Round (ankle), the veteran rusher jumps back up the depth chart and faces a familiar foe in the Steelers. He’s still running behind RB1 Woody Marks, but Chubb will be more active in the offense Monday. He drew only one carry in both Week 15 and Week 17 before going for 33 yards on six attempts versus Las Vegas in Week 16. Chubb will also have fresher legs after sitting out as a healthy scratch in Week 18. Houston has seen an uptick in handoffs over the past three games and with Pittsburgh bringing blitz and plenty of pressure, the Texans will utilize the ground game to take the heat of QB C.J. Stroud. Player projections vary after the injury update to Jordan, but those forecasts folding in the shift in the backfield peg Chub for 20+ yards with a ceiling at 30 yards.

These NFC West rivals clashed in a battle for the top seed in Week 18, with the Seahawks winning a 13-3 grinder.

The Niners managed only nine first downs and 173 total yards on offense while Seattle dominated possession for almost 38 minutes, anchored in a rushing attack going for 180 yards.

The venue swings to the Pacific Northwest for the Divisional Round. The 49ers are also missing star TE George Kittle, who suffered an Achilles injury in the Wild Card Round.

If you think we’ll see more of the same from these divisional rivals, grab the Under 46.5 now. The next key stop will be 44 points, and books will move fast if one-sided money shows on the Under.

Buffalo drew a similar line at Jacksonville and stood as the road chalk for most of the week before sharp action faded the Bills on Friday, flipping Buffalo to +1.5.

The Bills now open as faves against a well-rested Denver team despite traveling for a second straight game after a very physical contest in Jacksonville. 

Quarterback Josh Allen took a pounding, being tested for a concussion, twisting his knee, and suffering an injury throwing hand in the win. On top of that, Buffalo is running short on receivers with only four regular WRs healthy and dual-threat RB Ty Johnson also hurt.

Buffalo has been able to break through top-tier defenses like Denver, putting up 12, 19, and 23 points against Philadelphia, Houston, and Cleveland – all of which finished Top 6 in Defensive DVOA. The Broncos are No. 8 in that advanced stat.