NFL Picks

Maye has had 240+ passing yards in six of his past seven games.

Stefon Diggs has incentive money firmly in play with three games remaining. He’s three receptions shy of a $500K bonus and 13 catches away from another $500K, putting a total of $1 million on the line. Diggs has recorded at least three receptions in all but one game this season but has been quieter recently in a pair of run-heavy matchups against the Bills and Giants. That could change this week against Baltimore, a defense allowing the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers. If Diggs wants to make a real push toward that second incentive at 80 catches, the volume needs to start building now. With the Jets up next and a Week 18 matchup against Miami that could turn run-heavy if playoff positioning is settled, this sets up as a spot where Diggs is motivated and the matchup finally cooperates.

Indianapolis is down Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and this pass defense has given up big gains through the air, allowing 12.4 yards per completion over the past three games – tied for fourth most. On the season, Indianapolis’ man-centric schemes have given up the 10th most receptions of 20-plus yards. Jennings leads the 49ers attack in explosive plays, with seven catches for 20 or more yards, and also tops the team with the most targets versus man coverage. With fellow WR Ricky Pearsall once again injured, Jennings’ role in this offense gets a shot in the arm. He’ll be the primary deep threat and while he hasn’t played in many indoor games throughout his career, his yards per reception soars from seven to more than 11 yards in domed venues.

Downs was one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets in the veteran quarterback’s first start last Sunday. Rivers attempts 27 total passes and five of those came to Downs, who caught three of those balls for just 13 yards (one for a touchdown). San Francisco is a softer secondary than the Seattle Seahawks and the Niners’ passive zone-heavy schemes are susceptible to slot receivers. Downs is the Colts’ primary slot option and those quick short routes are a perfect fit for Indianapolis’ limited passing game. Head coach Shane Steichen said to expect more vertical passes from this offense and with the game indoors as well as a pass-positive game script (Colts +5.5 at home), there is a high ceiling for the Indianapolis receivers. Downs did miss practice time this week but it wasn’t due to an injury (personal reasons). The majority of his Week 16 projections come in at 31.6 receiving yards or higher.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.