NFL Picks

Zay Flowers is coming off an ugly game where he reeled in just two of seven targets for six yards. That said, he's in a good spot to bounce back against the Steelers on Sunday. Prior to last week, Flowers had racked up more than 55.5 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games. He's Baltimore's best receiver by a wide margin and Pittsburgh's defense has been a passing funnel. The Steelers are 25th in the NFL in opponent passing rate (59.6%) while allowing a league-high 171.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Jackson hasn’t had a rushing yards total this low once since the beginning of the 2024 season, and while his recent numbers on the ground don’t jump off the page, he’s still topped this number in two of his past four games and has averaged 6.2 carries per since returning from injury in Week 9. Jackson is nursing an ankle injury, but with Pittsburgh blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league, I’m expecting multiple scrambles for chunk gains. Plus, coming off the mini bye with a Thursday game in Week 13 is a bonus.

Bijan Robinson has rushed for 995 yards and he's also a weapon in the passing game where he has 54 catches for 594 yards. He'll have a tough time finding running room against Seattle but should have success through the air. The Seahawks have an elite defense, especially against the run, but are vulnerable against pass-catching backs. They are 29th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game (39.7) to opposing RBs while allowing the second-most receptions per game (5.7) to the position. Robinson has logged 37+ receiving yards in nine of 12 games this year and the Falcons are 7.5-point underdogs this week which indicates a negative game script.

Cousins is a shell of his former self and will be a sitting duck for one of the fiercest pass rushes in the land. The Seahawks generate the second highest pressure rate per dropback and rank No. 3 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, sitting second in QB hurries and fourth in total sacks. They do this all without needing extra rushers, blitzing less than 20% of the time. That allows Mike Macdonald’s defense a lot of flexibility with the linebackers and secondary. Seattle can drop more into coverage or dedicate linebackers to plugging up the rushing lane, which is what it’ll do against the Falcons two-headed RB monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

I don’t usually double-dip in back-to-back weeks, but Harold Fannin and Shedeur Sanders are clicking, and the rookie tight end cashed a +425 TD for me last week in brutal weather, so I’m going back in Week 14 despite the price drop. Fannin has now led the team in receptions and targets in two straight games and profiles as a potential No. 1 option again against a weak Titans defense. Sanders looks comfortable, and this time he won’t be throwing in 30-mph winds. Fannin has fully taken over the TE1 role from David Njoku and has been more reliable than Jerry Jeudy. I’d play his TD down to +230.

The Titans have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.2 plays per game.. Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.. Tony Pollard's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 18.1.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cleveland's LB corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the NFL.

After posting an 8/102/1 line last week in just his third game with the offense, the former Colts receiver looks like he’s finally settling into a suddenly competent Jets attack. Across his three games as a Jet, he’s racked up 457 air yards and 27 targets — production that should put his TD price below +200, yet the market still hasn’t adjusted. John Metchie saw eight targets last week, but much of that came late. Mitchell is the one getting the deeper routes and the higher-value opportunities. The Jets may not score more than 20 points, but with Miami having to account for Breece Hall, Mitchell should see plenty of shots on Sunday.

When the Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26. The Jets have quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots. Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes this season, but they’ve consistently been stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranked 12th in opponent success rate per run. Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday. 

There’s a sizable gap in Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road. This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, after all.

The Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season and with his second team. Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now he gets a Tampa defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely have to lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns. Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.

Brenton Strange found the end zone for the first time this season in his second game back, and the usage was no fluke — only Jakobi Meyers saw more targets. With the Colts on deck and no Sauce Gardner this week (a big shift from last week’s matchup vs. Tennessee), the passing volume should stay elevated. Strange is emerging as a legitimate top receiving option in this offense. Brian Thomas hasn’t looked like last year’s version of himself, Meyers offers limited upside, and Parker Washington left Week 13 with a hip injury and didn’t return. Now he draws a premium matchup: Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to opposing tight ends. Given the role, matchup, and red-zone involvement, Strange anytime TD is playable down to +240.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is playing on a fractured fibula and has limited mobility, but the team really has no other option at QB. And opponents know it. We’ve seen recent foes go all in on stuffing RB Jonathan Taylor, forcing Jones to beat them through the air. He’s completed just 58% of his passes for 181 and 201 yards with four touchdowns the pass two games – both losses. The Jaguars will test Jones’ mobility with one of the best pass rushes in the league. Jacksonville may only have 24 sacks but is Top 10 in pass rush win rate at ESPN, as well as QB hits and hurries. All that chaos has generated 20 takeaways, including 13 interceptions. Jacksonville definitely has shortcomings and its recent success (winning four of its last five) has been against some softer opponents. That said, four of those five games were on the road and the Jags get to host a Colts team that is 1-3 SU in its last four away games. 

In his first game back after a four-week absence, Terry McLaurin drew 14 targets — tied for the most of any player in Week 13. Even more impressive, he did it on just 49% of the snaps with Marcus Mariota under center. Now he steps into an indoor matchup against a Minnesota team that can’t generate much offense, and he could see a QB upgrade if Jayden Daniels returns. Even if he doesn’t, getting a receiver at better than +200 who’s capable of 10+ targets is an easy play in Week 14. His snap share will only rise as he gets back to full form. With that Week 13 volume, he should be closer to +150.

The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.. The projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to total 8.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (25.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.6%).. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving skills have improved this season, accumulating 4.9 adjusted receptions vs just 3.6 last season.

Through the first six games of the season, Brown rushed for just 202 yards on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. But in the last six games he has rushed for 502 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. In Week 14, Brown and the Bengals face a Buffalo squad that has one glaring flaw; an inability to stop the run. The Bills are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They surrender 141.3 rushing yards per game and with Cincinnati getting back QB Joe Burrow last week, they'll need to focus on containing the pass. Brown has rushed for more than 70 yards in five of his last six games and this number looks way too low here. 

The Bengals are one of the worst pass defenses in the land and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns to opponents this season. Cincinnati is giving up 2.2 TDs through the air per game with a red-zone defense allowing foes to cross the goal line at a near 65% rate. Allen’s lack of passing touchdowns the past two games coincides with a laundry list of ailments for the receiving corps. That includes his favorite TD target, tight end Dalton Kincaid (questionable for Sunday). This pass-catching group is getting healthier in Week 14, hopefully in time for a high-scoring showdown with Cincy. Player projections for Allen range from 1.8 to 2.1 passing touchdowns on Sunday. 

The Broncos can’t run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey has managed just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries over his last two games. Meanwhile, Evan Engram led all pass-catchers on SNF with six receptions on nine targets for 79 yards. He’s averaging 5.8 targets per game since Week 4, putting him inside the top 10 among tight ends. Denver could push toward 30 points indoors against this Raiders defense, and getting one of their most heavily targeted pass-catchers at this price makes Engram a strong TD play this week.

I bet Harvey Over 47.5 rush yards on Monday. That closed like 10 yards higher at 56.5 but while he ran 13 times, he only amassed 35 yards rushing to go along with two touchdowns in an OT win at Washington. This week, I’m back on it. He’s the RB1 in Denver with Dobbins done and game script says the Broncos get up big and run it out in Vegas – more than the 23 attempts last week. Projections all above this total with most at 51 yards or more, some flirting with 60 yards. 

I’m fully buying into this Bears offense. Kyle Monangai was the best value last week, but his number has moved too much for Week 14, so I’m turning to another rookie: Coltson Loveland at +425. Loveland has two red-zone targets over his last three games and turned one into a touchdown. He’s contributing outside the red zone as well — he tied for the team lead with six targets against the Eagles and led all Bears pass catchers with 63 air yards. Cole Kmet found the end zone last week, but at +425, I’m happy to back the tight end running 70% of the routes and lining up all over the formation. I’m riding Ben Johnson’s offense weekly from here on out.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game.. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

There’s some risk here with Trey Benson eligible to return now that his practice window is open, but he was a DNP on Wednesday. With Emari Demercado dealing with an ankle injury and Michael Carter operating as the pass-catching back, Knight could be the RB1 again this week. Knight has scored in three straight games and has been as short as +135 in the TD market. We saw last week that the Rams can be beaten on the ground, as Carolina moved the ball easily in Week 13. If Benson sits and Demercado is limited, this number could drop to around +140, which is closer to where the fair price should be. Even if Benson suits up, Knight still has paths to cash as the likely preferred red-zone option.

Last week, the Rams were 10.5-point road faves against a 6-6 Panthers team despite traveling to the Eastern Seaboard for a 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff. They ended up losing that game due to a couple of rare picks from Matthew Stafford, but that doesn't justify a shift to -8 this week with easier travel conditions against the 3-9 Cardinals. This is a Rams team that ranks second in the league in DVOA while the Cardinals rank 21st. With five of the Rams last six wins coming by double digits, expect them to bounce back with a lopsided win here. 

Let’s take a swing in what could be a low-scoring game. Cade Stover played only 41% of the snaps last week against the Colts and finished with two catches for 16 yards, but he also logged four carries and has taken on a short-yardage role. Three of those four carries came in the red zone, and one of his two targets was inside the 10. Coaches love showing off their creativity near the goal line, and Stover is exactly the type of player who can end up on the receiving end of a gadget look. This is a half-unit play for me, and I’d take it down to +800.

Constant hounding forced Stroud to take off with the football six times for 42 rushing yards in that postseason matchup with the Chiefs last year. In his first seven games of 2025, Stroud was also doing damage with his legs. He rushed four or more times in five of those games, amassing at least 22 rushing yards in all but one of those seven showings before suffering a concussion in Week 8. The Chiefs’ pass rush has prompted rival QBs to turn into runners at a high rate, with KC seeing the fourth highest rushing attempts from the position and allowing the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Player projections for Stroud all sit above his current rushing bar of 12.5 yards, with most models at 16-plus and a ceiling off 23 yards. 

AJ Brown’s production is fully back. He has six red-zone targets over his last three games, with at least one in each. The offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but Brown was one of the most heavily targeted players last week with 12 looks, converting them into 10 catches and two touchdowns — giving him three scores over his last two games. He was +155 to score last week, and instead of adjusting his number down, the market has gone the other way. Now he gets an indoor matchup with an offense looking to respond after a holiday letdown. His fair price should be around +150.

The Eagles offense is sputtering, and fingers are pointing everywhere, including the press asking why Jalen Hurts isn’t running the ball as much. This offense is at its best when Hurts gets going on the ground and times are getting desperate. He’s had more than seven carries only once in the past eight games and has topped out at 33 rushing yards in that span. The Chargers zone heavy scheme isn’t allowing anything over the top and we could see Hurts forced to run with limited looks downfield. We’ve seen the Bolts give up gains on the ground to nimble QBs like Mahomes, Nix, Dart and Daniels. Projections for Hurts at 34 yards and higher with a ceiling of 42.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.