NFL Picks

Baker Mayfield has thrown for less than 200 yards with 30 or fewer pass attempts in five of his last six games. What's especially concerning about those numbers is that he played with a negative game script in three of those contests. Mayfield may be more efficient at home on Thursday night but I expect his passing volume to remain low. The Bucs recently got a boost with the return of RB Bucky Irving and they could lean on their ground game against an Atlanta D that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run. Especially if they get up big early, which they might do as 4.5-point home favorites against the struggling Falcons.

Bijan Robinson might have a tough time finding room on the ground against a stingy Bucs run defense. That said, Atlanta still needs to get the ball into the hands of its best player and the passing game might be the way to do that Robinson had just two catches for eight yards last week. However, he has eclipsed this number in eight of his previous 10 games. He's averaging 46.3 receiving yards per game and Tampa Bay has been vulnerable against pass-catching backs. The Bucs are 31st in DVOA against running backs while allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position.

The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest. Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 49.3% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.5 passes this week, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst passers in football this year, averaging 156.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.

Philadelphia has plenty to prove to the Linc faithful this Sunday and Las Vegas is the perfect opponent to get right. The Eagles were able to pick up yards against the Bolts defense but turnovers killed those drives. Las Vegas heads to a chilly Linc where sub-freezing temps, howling winds and possible snow await. On top of that, Geno Smith has a wet noodle for an arm and we could see former Eagles backup Kenny Pickett under center. This look-ahead line was as big as 13.5 but dipped after the MNF result. 

At a -11-point disadvantage, the Raiders are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.. The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement. Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 30.08 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 30.4 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Ravens grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year.. Lamar Jackson's 187.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a noteworthy regression in his passing talent over last year's 243.0 figure.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 40.0 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (259.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.3 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year.

Right now, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.3 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The model projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 36.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most out of all QBs.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.2 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.0 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The Jets are now travelling to Jacksonville, perhaps without Tyrod Taylor at QB (groin), to face a fierce Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less. As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position. This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.

Only two running backs had more red-zone carries last week than Omarion Hampton in his first game back, with five. He didn’t convert those attempts, but he did score on an eight-yard reception. This is a strong price for a lead back in a productive offense with the goal-line role. I’d play him to +120, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he took on even more work in his second game back from injury.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 68.3% to 63.6%.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.2% Adjusted Completion%).

Shaheed starting to find his way in this Seahawks game plan after coming to Seattle at the trade deadline. He had his biggest receiving day against Atlanta last week, with four grabs on five catches for 67 yards but his results have been tempered by a schedule loaded with zone defenses – which is something the speedy Shaheed struggles against. Against Indy, however, he takes on man-centric schemes and his grades spike in one-on-one coverage. What’s more the Colts could be down both starting corners in Gardiner and Ward. With JSN drawing double, Shaheed is ripe to rip some backups for a TD in Week 15.

The Under is getting 50% of the money despite only 43% of the bets.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their past five games and come in fresh from the bye week.

The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.

The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and they shouldn't be underdogs against anybody at home, especially since they're 6-0 with a scoring margin of +10.0 ppg at Mile High Stadium, where they benefit from a significant home-field advantage due to elevation. The Broncos have an elite stop unit that ranks second in the league in defensive success rate. They've piled up a league-high 55 sacks, and that pressure will make things tough for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Take the Broncos at plus money in a game where they should be slight favorites or a pick'em at worst. 

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a  68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 130.1 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New Orleans's group of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.

Los Angeles has almost no home-field edge at SoFi Stadium, especially against teams like the Lions, who have widespread fanbases and travel well. There will be no shortage of Honolulu Blue in the stands this Sunday. The Lions should be able to grind out gains on the ground but exploit a soft secondary for L.A. with a talent group of receivers. 

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Rams are expected by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.. The model projects Matthew Stafford to throw 39.5 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (259.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.