NFL Picks

Bucky Irving returned to Tampa Bay's lineup in Week 13 after missing two months. While he will get most of touches, don't expect the Bucs to phase out Rachaad White who impressed with his hard-running style and blocking in Irving's absence. Between Weeks 5 and 11, White averaged 44.7 rushing yards per game. He was the more efficient runner last week, rushing for 53 yards on 11 carries while Irving had 55 yards on 15 attempts. Expect the Bucs to use both backs against a Falcons defense that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run and allows 131.0 rushing yards per game. 

Baker Mayfield has thrown for less than 200 yards with 30 or fewer pass attempts in five of his last six games. What's especially concerning about those numbers is that he played with a negative game script in three of those contests. Mayfield may be more efficient at home on Thursday night but I expect his passing volume to remain low. The Bucs recently got a boost with the return of RB Bucky Irving and they could lean on their ground game against an Atlanta D that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run. Especially if they get up big early, which they might do as 4.5-point home favorites against the struggling Falcons.

The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest. Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 49.5% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.8 passes this week, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst passers in football this year, averaging 156.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.

It looks like Kenny Pickett will take on his former team with Geno Smith likely out. With Brock Bowers, you’re getting a player who never leaves the field — he logged a 100 percent snap share last week — and he’s the top option in a passing game that can’t run the ball. The matchup against the Eagles is baked into this number, as Bowers has been as short as -110 to score and typically sits around +165. He gets elite target share and has the ability to score from outside the red zone, so +200 or better is a strong price. He has three touchdowns over his last two games, accounting for 75 percent of his team’s scores.

Philadelphia has plenty to prove to the Linc faithful this Sunday and Las Vegas is the perfect opponent to get right. The Eagles were able to pick up yards against the Bolts defense but turnovers killed those drives. Las Vegas heads to a chilly Linc where sub-freezing temps, howling winds and possible snow await. On top of that, Geno Smith has a wet noodle for an arm and we could see former Eagles backup Kenny Pickett under center. This look-ahead line was as big as 13.5 but dipped after the MNF result. 

Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement. Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.

I expect rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to come back to earth in this road start. He was able to overcome a horrible Raiders defense in his first pro outing but the Bears defense is a much more dangerous test. Chicago’s stop unit was soft to start the schedule but has improved since Week 10, more specifically against the pass. The Bears run a high rate of man-to-man coverage and thrive on takeaways, with a league high 18 interceptions. Sanders has played three zone-heavy secondaries in Las Vegas, San Francisco and Tennessee – three defenses that also sit 24th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback. Sanders, who completion rate dips below 42% versus man coverage, will be forced to throw into tight windows against a ball-hawking secondary.

What a price against the Bengals, who have been the most generous defense to opposing tight ends by a wide margin. Last week, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes both scored in the snow, giving Cincinnati 14 and 15 tight end touchdowns allowed on the season. The next-closest team has allowed nine. Isaiah Likely saw three red-zone targets last week and put up 95 yards, plus what should have been a touchdown on Thanksgiving vs. the Bengals. I’m surprised this number is still north of +200, as I have the fair price closer to +170. Even Kincaid was +200 last week, coming off a lengthy injury.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 40.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (259.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

This is a tough game because the prices on Houston’s main weapons, like Nico Collins and Woody Marks, aren’t appealing. On top of that, the Cardinals might struggle to put up even 14 points against this Houston defense. That leads me to Jayden Higgins, who remains the WR2 in this offense and finished with the second-most targets last week against Kansas City. Collins has become CJ Stroud’s preferred option after Higgins had better chemistry with Davis Mills, but Higgins still has a clear role, especially against a defense that has given up 177 points over its last five games. I wouldn’t play this any lower than +280.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (62.3% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Houston Texans.. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are expected by the projection model to call 68.4 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.3 per game on average).. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Dalton Schultz's pass-catching performance been refined this year, notching 4.4 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year.

In his first game back from injury, Dalton Kincaid scored at +210 and finished with four catches on five targets, including one in the red zone. Buffalo’s tight ends were heavily involved against Cincinnati, catching 11 passes compared to nine from the wide receivers. With another week of work, Kincaid should see an increase from the 52 percent route share he had last game. He’s also off the injury report entirely, which is a strong indication he’s back to full health heading into a rematch with New England, where he posted six catches and over 100 yards in Week 5. This touchdown price should be under +200.

New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money and it would surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk. The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Josh Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to the Bengals at home in Week 14. New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into their ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines. This is the biggest game in recent history for New England and would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.

There isn’t a ton of meat on this bone and I’d only play it to +150, but with the uncertainty around the No. 3 role between Parker Washington and Tim Patrick, Jakobi Meyers is the safest option at a reasonable number in a game where Jacksonville could push for 30 points. Meyers has led the team in targets in back-to-back games while operating as the No. 1 receiver. He saw 10 targets last week and has recorded at least six in four straight, while finding the end zone in three consecutive games. His price has adjusted, but anything at +150 or better is still playable.

The Jets are now travelling to Jacksonville, perhaps without Tyrod Taylor at QB (groin), to face a fierce Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less. As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position. This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.

Only two running backs had more red-zone carries last week than Omarion Hampton in his first game back, with five. He didn’t convert those attempts, but he did score on an eight-yard reception. This is a strong price for a lead back in a productive offense with the goal-line role. I’d play him to +120, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he took on even more work in his second game back from injury.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 4.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this season represents a material regression in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate.. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this year, accumulating just 4.6 adjusted receptions vs 6.1 last year.

There are plenty of unknowns with this Indy offense, but all the wideouts are sitting at +450 or longer, which is hard to ignore whether it’s Riley Leonard or Philip Rivers starting. When Daniel Jones went down last week, Leonard stepped in and threw 10 of his 29 attempts to Michael Pittman. That’s serious volume. The matchup in Seattle isn’t ideal, but Leonard is expected to practice this week, and that level of target share paired with a +475 price is an easy play for me. Even Alec Pierce at +675 is appealing.

Shaheed starting to find his way in this Seahawks game plan after coming to Seattle at the trade deadline. He had his biggest receiving day against Atlanta last week, with four grabs on five catches for 67 yards but his results have been tempered by a schedule loaded with zone defenses – which is something the speedy Shaheed struggles against. Against Indy, however, he takes on man-centric schemes and his grades spike in one-on-one coverage. What’s more the Colts could be down both starting corners in Gardiner and Ward. With JSN drawing double, Shaheed is ripe to rip some backups for a TD in Week 15.

I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

Christian Watson has been one of the best touchdown producers in football over the last four weeks with five total TDs, and the Denver matchup is keeping this number above two dollars in Week 15. The Green Bay receiver room isn’t the mess it used to be. Watson and Romeo Doubs are handling most of the routes, with Jayden Reed rotating in for 3-WR sets. If Watson ever opened in the +130 to +140 range in a good matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me, so this could be the best price we see for a while. He’s already cashed at +175 and +200 in consecutive weeks.

The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.

Bettors may have forgotten how much Chuba Hubbard’s usage jumped before the bye. He went over 100 total yards for the first time all season in Week 13 against the Rams and scored his first touchdown since Week 8. He logged 17 carries to Rico Dowdle’s 18 and added two receptions. Dowdle is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry across his last four games on 61 attempts and may be trending toward a 1B role in what could be a run-heavy matchup with the Saints. There shouldn’t be a 100-point difference between the two Carolina backs in touchdown pricing. If Hubbard is in line for 15-plus touches, he should be closer to +140.

Carolina is coming off a Week 14 bye in the thick of the race for top spot in the NFC South, and the Black Cats are trading Under the key number of 3 against the 3-10 Saints. New Orleans is ripe for a letdown spot after playing spoiler and topping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young is quietly turning the corner with the eighth-highest EPA+CPOE composite dating back to Week 9. Young has aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt with a  68.1 completion percentage over his past three games, too.

Getting Colby Parkinson at better than +200 when he’s scored in four of his last five games is a great value. He’s not the top option in the passing game, but he’s reliably seeing around five targets a game, and half of his looks over the last three weeks have come in the red zone. This matchup has the potential to reach 50-plus points with both offenses scoring indoors. Among all pass catchers in this game, Parkinson offers the best value. The LA running back prices have stabilized, and Detroit continues to concentrate usage around its usual playmakers with Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy.

Los Angeles has almost no home-field edge at SoFi Stadium, especially against teams like the Lions, who have widespread fanbases and travel well. There will be no shortage of Honolulu Blue in the stands this Sunday. The Lions should be able to grind out gains on the ground but exploit a soft secondary for L.A. with a talent group of receivers. 

Aaron Jones is +155, but I'd rather have Jordan Mason, who had 11 carries last week and got the red-zone role vs. Washington. He finished that game with five carries inside the 20-yard line, which tied for the third most by any RB in Week 14. Jones has also been dealing with injuries and inefficiency, which might open the door for more work for Mason. If JJ McCarthy can build on his Week 14 performance, Minnesota could flirt with 24 points in Dallas, where everyone scores. Mason will have a big role on Sunday night for an offense that wants to run the ball. 

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De'Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200. Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher. He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.

Achane has powered this Miami attack during this streak, with the Dolphins handing off at the highest rate in the league the past three games. That’s keep gains short and the clock ticking, translating into a healthy chunk of TOP for the Fins. The Dolphins will go run-heavy again on Monday, especially if conditions stink, as to keep the heat from QB Tua Tagovailoa. Pittsburgh brings blitz at a Top 5 rate and is among the leaders in sacks and QB hits. The Steelers attack has lacked explosive plays with Aaron Rodgers under center. He enters Week 15 with the second lowest intended air yards per attempt among qualified QBs and the offense has the sixth fewest completions of 20 yards or more – just behind the Dolphins.

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.