NFL Picks

Allen has 13 rushing TDs in 11 games since the bye and has six rushing TDs in his past six playoff games.

Buffalo's biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Broncos won't capitalize. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will also have a tough time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game on 5.8 ypa. Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. 

Charbonnet has scored 12 times this season and opened the scoring in five games, more than any other player in the NFL.

Christian McCaffrey is averaging just 3.8 yards per rush attempt in the regular season and playoffs and hasn't broken many big runs. McCaffrey's longest rush has been below 11.5 yards in nine of his last 15 games. That includes Week 18 against the Seahawks when his best carry went for a meager five yards. Seattle has the league's top-rated run defense and has held foes to an explosive run rate of just 6.7% — easily the lowest number in the NFL. In addition, the Seahawks are 7-point faves which indicates a passing game script for the Niners and fewer carries for C-Mac.

The door remains open for Kirk to see an uptick in targets again against the Pats with No. 1 wideout Nico Collins in concussion protocol and unlikely to play after missing practice Thursday.  Kirk went good to the tune of eight catches for 144 yards on nine targets last week against the Steelers in the Wild Card Round, and New England finished 25th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season. He’ll also have a size advantage against Pats slot cornerback Marcus Jones, and Jones surrendered a 75% catch rate and 113.9 NFL passer rating against this season. 

Houston needed the defense to bail out the offense in Pittsburgh but the Patriots are a much more dynamic team. New England's defense is fantastic both stopping the run and slowing down the pass. C.J. Stroud will struggle with the elements and miss Nico Collins, who is likely out with a concussion. When Houston's pressure mounts, Drake Maye can make plays with his legs, unlike Aaron Rodgers, and the Pats can pick up gains on the ground with the two-headed beast at running back. New England wins a low-scoring grinder, which is why I'm leaning ML rather than lay the field goal with the Patriots.

Loveland led the team in targets last week, tied the team in red zone targets across the season, and has averaged better than a touchdown every two games since Week Nine.

Adams leads the team in Red Zone targets and touchdowns this season, and the Bears have allowed 20 TDs to opposing WRs (third most in the NFL).