NFL Picks

In one of the few games where both teams have everything on the line, I’m backing the running back who controls 66% of the backfield workload and stands to earn an additional $250,000 with one more touchdown. This isn’t a longshot play, but with Carolina in must-win mode, Dowdle has clearly been the more effective back and should push past 20 opportunities. In a game plan built around him, the volume and motivation line up well for another trip to the end zone.

Rico Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week. If Dowdle is hampered, the Carolina Panthers need Chuba Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup. Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back. “I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.” Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.

With everything on the line, Seattle isn’t going to get creative, especially near the goal line, where Zach Charbonnet has taken over. I’d be interested in Kenneth Walker at 30 cents longer, but the reality is Charbonnet is matching him in overall touches while completely dominating the red-zone work. Last week, Charbonnet handled six of the seven red-zone carries, and over the last three games, he has taken 10 of the team’s 11 red-zone rushes. He’s turned that volume into three touchdowns and 23 yards, while Walker has just two yards and no scores on his opportunities. At this usage, Charbonnet is playable up to +110.

The 49ers edged the Seahawks in the season opener, but a lot has changed since. The 49ers lost their two best defenders to season-ending injuries, and Sam Darnold has developed chemistry with his new teammates. The 49ers have an explosive offense, but have struggled on defense. They are 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is fifth in defensive dropback success rate and third in success rate against the run. The Seahawks also have a strong offense that ranks second in the league with 29.4 ppg. Back the more balanced team to take this game and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With this spread growing from Titans +10.5 to +13, the opportunity for a backdoor cover grows wider. 

Tennessee has been one of the best bets in football down the stretch, going 5-3 ATS in the past eight outings. The Titans have been particularly feisty over the last four contests, going 2-2 SU and ATS with those two losses coming by one score.

What’s more, interim head coach Mike McCoy is trying to boost his resume ahead of the 2026 hiring session and would love nothing more than to stick it to his former employer in Week 18.

“If we go in there and beat them, and all of a sudden somebody else – Houston - ends up winning, they win the division,” McCoy told the media on Monday morning. “Things like that. It's an opportunity to go out there and do something like that against a division opponent."

Jacksonville still has an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a Week 18 win also clinches top spot in the AFC South. The Jaguars have won seven straight, which includes a 25-3 road victory over the Titans. Additionally, Jacksonville has an average margin of victory of 17 points while allowing the lowest EPA per play during the seven-game heater. I also value Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranking fourth in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for an impressive 8.2 yards per attempt over the stretch.

Houston still has plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team. While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and difficult to rely on. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances. Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.

The Texans have secured a playoff spot and can even still win the AFC South if the Jaguars shit the bed versus the Titans. While that scenario seems a little farfetched, Houston can still earn the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18.

The Texans are at home to the Colts, who could be starting Riley Leonard over Philip Rivers at quarterback in the finale. Either way, this Texans defense is a tall task for any QB. 

Houston has given up more than 21 points only once on its eight-game run and has taken down some of the NFL best quarterbacks along the way. C. J. Stroud and the offense do their best work inside NRG Stadium, where Houston averages 6.2 points more than on the road.  

This spread sits short of the key number of -10 at some shops while other books are already dealing the Texans as high as -10.5 in Week 18. Get that -9.5 now.

This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 – despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.

Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.

Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.

If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football. 

The Under is 4-3 in Bengals' games with Burrow at QB and 4-2 when the Browns are road underdogs.

The Bengals are 5-2 ATS when Joe Burrow is under center.

It’s a shorter number than I typically like on a WR1, but the context makes it workable. Tyler Shough is in the Rookie of the Year conversation and could be asked to throw more than usual on Sunday. Chris Olave even mentioned after the Week 17 win that he’s actively trying to help his quarterback chase the award. Olave delivered again last week with 11 targets, 119 yards, and a touchdown, and he’s accounted for two of the Saints’ three wide receiver red-zone targets. With New Orleans still shorthanded at running back and leaning into the passing game, the volume should remain there. At +150, this isn’t a typical WR1 price I’d play, but given the motivation and matchup, it’s one I’m comfortable backing to +130.

The Saints have won four in a row while the 7-9 Falcons are on a short week after playing on Monday night. The Falcons are 23rd in the league in defensive success rate, while the offense has been one-dimensional with Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 200 yards in five of seven starts. The Saints are ninth in defensive success rate, while Tyler Shough has been getting better every week and could earn the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with another strong performance. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these NFC South rivals, so give me the points with New Orleans.

The Dolphins defense is so bad and the Patriots offense is so good that it won't matter how much the Dolphins can score for this Over to hit. 

Mike McDaniels' Dolphins teams have always struggled in cold weather and the Patriots need this win to try and get the 1-seed in the AFC. 

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 53.8% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs.

Not only have the Jets lost by an average of 26.8 points during their four-game losing skid, they’ve also failed to cover the spread in all four while allowing the highest offensive success rate and dropback EPA per play. Now, New York heads to Highmark Stadium to face a Buffalo offense looking to get back on track in Week 18. The Bills also have an outside shot of improving their postseason seed, too.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. With a remarkable 22.4% Red Zone Target Share (98th percentile) this year, Kenneth Gainwell stands among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.. Kenneth Gainwell's 22.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 7.4.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.8% to 66.8%.