We went 2-2 in our CFL predictions to kick off Week 1, which is kind of like ordering a salad in a steakhouse: sufficient but disappointing. We head back to the board for the matchups in Week 2 with Mike Reilly making his return to Edmonton and Toronto playing its season opener against nextdoor neighbor Hamilton.
What did we learn from Week 1? Underdogs still rule early in the season with 'dogs going 3-1 ATS. Overs, on the other hand, went 3-1 reversing a trend which saw them go 1-3 in Week 1 during each of the last two years. We break down the CFL betting odds and give you our best bets and predictions for the three games in Week 2.
Week 1 Picks: 2-2
SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS AT OTTAWA REDBLACKS
Line: Ottawa -5.5, O/U 44
Time: Thursday, June 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Over/Under for this game opened at 49.5 and has already plummeted to 44 points. The Riders defense proved it was legit last week, holding Hamilton's high-powered offense to a combined 232 passing/rushing yards. Saskatchewan failed to pull off the win though, with its offense sputtering after quarterback Zach Collaros was sidelined following a vicious hit to the head early in the opening quarter.
Collaros had a history of concussion problems prior to getting knocked out of that game, and has been placed on the six-game injured list. Riders coach Craig Dickenson is still undecided on who will start at QB on Thursday between Cody Fajardo and Isaac Harker.
The Redblacks stunned prognosticators - including yours truly - last week by shocking the defending champion Stampeders with a fourth-quarter comeback in Calgary. Ottawa lost a plethora of key players on offense from last year but was still able to put up points thanks to new starters in Mossis Maddu (112 rushing yards) and QB Dominique Davis, who ran for three touchdowns and passed for 276 yards (making up for the four picks he threw).
I would have backed the Under for this game at anything above 46, but the current total of 44 is giving me reason to pause. That said, the Riders' situation under center is an absolute mess. Harker was probably the better passer in Week 1 but he's a rookie from the Colorado School of Mines (raise your hand if you think that sounds fake).
Whoever plays QB will be in trouble against a Redblacks defense that returns 11 of 12 starters from last year and held the Stamps to 318 combined rushing/passing yards last week. I'm laying the points with Ottawa.
PICK: Ottawa -5.5
BC LIONS AT EDMONTON ESKIMOS
Line: Edmonton -4, O/U 55.5
Time: Friday, June 21, 9 p.m. ET
The marquee matchup of Week 2 features a head-to-head battle between star QBs Mike Reilly and Trevor Harris, with Reilly making his return to Edmonton after six years as the Eskimos starter. Harris fit in seamlessly in his first game with Edmonton racking up 447 passing yards and three TDs in the opener. Reilly threw for 324 yards in his BC debut but completed less than 57 percent of his passes and was picked off twice. Granted, Edmonton played against woeful Montreal while the Lions played against a Blue Bombers squad that might be the best in the league.
Despite the stellar signal callers, both of these teams showed flaws on offense in Week 1. Edmonton outgained Montreal 608-325 in terms of combined passing and rushing yards but won by just seven points because of sloppy turnovers. British Columbia had a one-dimensional attack against the Bombers, running the ball just four times (that's not a typo they had FOUR freaking carries all game). However, expect the Lions to play with more balance against a Eskies run defense that was gashed for 134 yards on 17 carries against the Alouettes.
The difference-maker could be the Lions' superior return unit led by Brandon Rutley. They piled up 457 kickoff return yards versus the Bombers, including a 108-yard touchdown. I faded the Lions in Week 1 and felt they were a bit overrated going into the season but they're flying a bit under the radar for this game. Back BC and the points.
PICK: BC +4
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HAMILTON TIGER-CATS AT TORONTO ARGONAUTS
Line: Hamilton -2.5, O/U 52
Time: Saturday, June 22, 4 p.m. ET
The Argonauts will play their first game of the season Saturday. After winning the Grey Cup in 2017, they tied for the fewest wins in the league last year, going 4-14. All four of those wins came at home, but they took the L in both of their home tilts with the Ti-Cats, losing 36-25 in September and 34-20 in October.
Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli had a rough start to the season, completing 17 of 28 passes for 169 yards. But we predicted as much, since he was going up against a tough Saskatchewan defense that also shut him down in two games last season. This is still the same QB that threw for 5,209 yards for the top-rated offense in 2018 and Hamilton's attack has stayed more or less intact - which is a rare sight in a league with as much offseason turnover as the CFL.
The Argos allowed a league-worst 560 points last year and despite adding DB Kevin Fogg, they will likely not be much better in 2019. Masoli struggled against some of the better defenses in the league last year but absolutely tore up the Argos, averaging 343.3 yards through the air and tossing 12 TDs in three games.
On offense, Toronto is improved from the unit that scored the second-fewest points in the league in 2018 at just 20.5 points per game. They added WR Derel Walker (875 receving yards in just 11 games in 2018), RB Tyrell Sutton and former Florida Gator speedster Chris Rainey (452 rushing and receiving yards with an additional 2,112 yards on returns), along with first-overall draft pick OL Shane Richards from Oklahoma State.
Argos running back James Wilder Jr, one of the top HS recruits in the U.S. class of 2011, is expected to play after leaving Toronto to deal with a family issue. Wilder has been on the verge of a breakout campaign for a couple seasons and missed five games with various ailments in 2018. Quarterback James Franklin also played with more consistency towards the end of last season. Take the Over.
PICK: Over 52
