It's Thursday, which means Week 5 is here already with a prime time matchup in the Pacific Northwest as the Seahawks host the Rams. We get you ready for this game and the week ahead in NFL betting, with our best picks and predictions. And we’re not stopping at pointspreads and totals – no, no. We’re digging into team totals, player props, derivative odds and more. **video
HAPPY THURSDAY TO YOU
We mentioned yesterday, that we’re betting on a pass-happy attack from the Seattle Seahawks as their rushing game hasn’t been great. They rank 20th in yards per rush attempt and are gaining zero yards or losing yards on 25 percent of their runs. This combined with the fact that the Los Angeles Rams defense is allowing 3.2 yards per carry over their last three games, we see Chris Carson having success in the passing game in Thursday night's NFC West matchup.
Carson has caught 14-of-15 targets this year which he has parlayed into 100 yards. With fellow running back Rashaad Penny now healthy after missing two weeks, it will push the better pass-catching backup, C.J. Prosise, to a lesser role; leaving Carson to soak up all those beautiful targets.
Just like Wilson, we are doubling down on some serious value: Chris Carson Over 19.5 receiving yards and Over 2.5 receptions.
BILLS DEFENSE KEEPS ROLLING
Coming into Week 4, the last time Tom Brady had a quarterback rating of less than 46, the movie Borat was shocking audiences and Sean Paul was raising the temperature. The Buffalo Bills defense did something that hadn’t been done since 2006: holding the league’s prince to a QB rating of 45.9. This week they get to tee off on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans put up 17 points in their only home game this year against the Colts’ 30th ranked DVOA defense and were held to under 20 regulation points in their first five home games last year. Tennessee has also had trouble putting drives together as they have the second-most punts through four games.
With the Bills defense showing they are an elite group last week, look for a slow, low-scoring game. Hit the Titans team total Under 20.5.
PRIME TIME SIX-POINT TEASER TIME
After a loss last week bringing the record to 1-1 (+0.6 units), here is this week’s edition of Prime Time Six-Point Teaser time.
LAR @ SEA (LAR +7.5): The Seahawks have covered eight points just once in their last five home games and the Rams are fresh off getting embarrassed by the Bucs in Week 4. We like this game to be won in the fourth quarter and by one score.
IND @ KC (KC-5): Kansas City did everything they could to give away the game in Detroit last week and they still pulled off the victory. Things will go much smoother at home versus Jacoby Brissett and the Colts on Sunday night. In their last seven home wins, the Chiefs have won by totals of 5, 18, 32, 3, 12, 7 and 35.
CLE @ SF (U52.5): Both defenses sit top-seven in DVOA pass defense. Kyle Shannahan will have had two weeks to gameplan against the Browns while the Browns offense is in a let-down spot after putting up 40 points last week in a big divisional win.
JAMES AND THE GIANT PROP
New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead was limited in practice again on Wednesday. The lingering foot injury held him to just one touch in Week 4 after 17 touches in Week 3. With Sony Michel’s struggles, look for an expanded workload for James White.
White led his team in targets last week with 10 which he turned into 57 yards on eight catches. He also led the backfield with a 52 percent share of snaps.
His opponent this week is Washington, which allowed New York Giants’ Wayne Gallman to go 6/55/1 through the air last week in his first career start. Washington is lacking skilled players to cover running backs as they have three linebackers on I.R. and their starter du jour, Jon Bostic, has a poor PFF grade of 55 this year.
We are buying the Over on a reception total below six and an Over on a receiving yards total of 39 and below.
COUSINS CAN CUT IT
We sure hope Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t see how his name is being treated on social media. Cousins, set to make $27.5 million this year, has a worse total QBR than the Jets’ Luke Falk and averaging just 169 yards passing a game — only better than the Dolphins.
Oddly, the Vikings QB has a 60 percent adjusted completion rate of passes over twenty yards that equates to a 144 quarterback rating. Those numbers are great, the only problem is he has attempted just 10 passes of 20 yards or more.
Enter the New York Giants. The Giants secondary is allowing 279 yards to passers — Washington QBs sadly included in that number — and has five players currently on the I.R. Jameis Winston threw for 380 yards in Week 3 against the Giants, Josh Allen had 253 yards in Week 2 and Dak Prescott torched them for 405 yards in the opener.
With nobody giving Cousins a chance, we don’t mind putting some money on a guy down on his luck. If you can stomach it, take Kirk Cousins Over 232.5 passing yards.
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