March Madness comes to a close in the NCAA national title game, with the Texas Tech Red Raiders taking on the Virginia Cavaliers.
The NCAA Tournament betting odds have Virginia as a slight 1.5-point favorite in Minneapolis Monday night, but there’s more to bet in the National Championship than just the pointspread. We look at the best bets and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Virginia. **video
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-1.5, 118)
QUICK HITTER
Both teams won their respective races to 20 points in the national semifinals, though both games featured narrow victories on those props. But unlike Virginia, which has been plagued by slow starts for the majority of the tournament, the Red Raiders have given teams fits from the get-go.
Texas Tech has won the “Race to 20 points” in each of its first five March Madness contests, with a list of vanquished opponents that includes a stout defensive club in Michigan and two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation in Buffalo and Gonzaga. Texas Tech is running red-hot in the early going, and we like them winning the “Race to 20” here.
PREDICTION: Race to 20 points Texas Tech (-110)
FIRST HALF BET
The funny thing about the Quick Hitter is that it might get settled only a few minutes before this prop. These two teams absolutely stifle their opponents and are excellent at negating the things the other team does well.
Texas Tech is one of the top teams in the country at preventing open 3s, which means that Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome might need to fire away from 26 feet or more if they hope to get an open look. Virginia, on the other hand, can pack the paint like few other teams and will almost certainly force the Red Raiders to beat them from deep. This game should feature plenty of missed shots over the first 20 minutes.
PREDICTION: Under 53.5 first-half points (-110)
TEAM/PLAYER BET
Of all the player point props available, Jarrett Culver's might be the most intriguing of the bunch. The Texas Tech star averaged a healthy 21.5 points over his previous four NCAA Tournament games before hitting a wall against the Spartans, shooting just 3 of 12 from the field for a tournament-low 10 points.
And while he did score 22 points against a formidable Michigan defense in the Sweet 16, this Virginia unit will almost certainly try to let Culver beat them from outside, where he has shot just 7 for 31 (22.6 percent) over his past six games. In a game this low-scoring, we like the Under on his point total.
PREDICTION: Jarrett Culver Under 17.5 points (-110)
FULL-GAME SIDE
It's hard to handicap a national championship game, because the circumstances the players will face Monday night are unlike anything they've had to deal with all season. But from a past performance standpoint, the Red Raiders have the edge.
Not only is their list of conquests as impressive as it gets, but with four of their five victories coming by double-digits – including an impressive 10-point win over the powerhouse Spartans in the Final Four – this team is playing the best basketball in the country. We favor the Red Raiders to win this one straight-up, which provides slightly better value then a spread bet.
PREDICTION: Texas Tech moneyline (+110)
FULL-GAME TOTAL
Oddsmakers are doing their best to generate action on either side of this number, and this might just do the trick. Two of Virginia's five tournament games have finished with fewer than 120 points scored, while its Final Four win over Auburn produced just 125 total points.
Texas Tech has also posted two sub-120 game totals, though in fairness, numbers that low were never in play against the Bulls or Bulldogs. We don't see either team running away with this one (or doing much against the opponents' defense), so expect few possessions, many defensive rebounds and one of the lowest-scoring NCAA title games in history.
PREDICTION: Under 118 (-110)
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