It's Week 3 of the CFL and there are four games on the betting board, culminating in a Canada Day Clash on July 1 between the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Toronto Argonauts.
Week 2 had plenty of offensive fireworks with four out of six teams scoring 39 points or more. Seven games into the season and we're starting to notice some trends; home teams are having trouble covering the spread and Overs are turning a tidy profit.
We break down the football odds north of the border with our analysis, betting trends, picks and predictions.
Season Betting Trends
Favorites: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Home teams: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Over/Under: 6-1
Week 2 Picks: 1-2
Season to date: 3-4
EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS
Line: Winnipeg -5, O/U 58
Time: Thursday, June 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Edmonton Eskimos look like legitimate contenders despite losing star quarterback Mike Reilly. Newly aquired field general Trevor Harris has completed 77 percent of his passes for 741 yards and six touchdowns through the first two games of the season, while former USC running back C.J. Gable has rushed for 265 yards on 6.2 yards per carry.
The Blue Bombers should be a big test for them though. Winnipeg limited the Lions to 328 yards of offense and 23 points (and seven of those points came on a kickoff return) on the road in Week 1. This will be the Bombers home opener as they come off a bye, while the Eskimos play their first contest on the road. The Esks will have only six days of rest, since their previous game was last Friday.
This is the toughest defense Edmonton has faced so far this year and Bombers star RB Andrew Harris (148 rushing yards in Week 1) should be able to take advantage of an Esks D that allowed 134 yards on the ground and 7.9 yards per carry against Montreal. The Bombers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season and I'm backing them to win and cover at home on Thursday.
PICK: Winnipeg -5
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MONTREAL ALOUETTES AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS
Line: Hamilton -13, O/U 58
Time: Friday, June 28, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hamilton is coming off a huge 64-14 win against Toronto last Saturday. Jeremiah Masoli threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns while running back Sean Thomas-Erlington gained 109 yards on the ground and another 56 through the air. The Ti-Cats offense struggled versus the Rough Riders in Week 1 but they also played poorly against Saskatchewan in 2018 and still had the most yards in the league by the end of the year.
Montreal lost by seven points against Edmonton in Week 1 but should consider themselves lucky that the game was so close. The Eskimos rolled up 608 yards of offense, while the Alouettes totaled just 325. Turnovers and penalties by Edmonton allowed Montreal to stay in the game. However, despite the Ti-Cats offensive explosion last week they had a pair of sloppy turnovers (and an additional fumble they managed to recover) and committed ten penalties.
Even against a squad as bad as the Alouettes, 13 points is a lot to lay with the home side. Keep in mind that Montreal has lost by more than seven points in only three of their last 12 games going back to last season. The Als are 8-1 ATS in their previous nine contests on the road and 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Hamilton. Back them to cover again on Friday.
PICK: Montreal +13
BC LIONS AT CALGARY STAMPEDERS
Line: Calgary -10.5, O/U 52.5
Time: Saturday, June 29, 7:00 p.m. ET
In Week 1 the Stampeders showed their vulnerabilty on defense by allowing the Redblacks to score 32 points against them at home. Calgary's strong defense last year was built around their terrific D-Line and the departure of three starters from that unit has hurt.
That should allow Mike Reilly to finally play like the QB that the Lions thought they had when they spent a boatload of money on him as a free agent. Reilly has been a disappointment through the first two games of the year but, at least on paper, the Lions still have a dangerous offense with Reilly airing the ball out to Bryan Burnham and Duron Carter (son of NFL Hall of Famer Chris Carter).
The Stamps should also be able to put up points thanks to one of the top quarterbacks in the game in Bo Levi Mitchell and a squad of talented weapons surrounding him. The Lions allowed 33 points to Winnipeg in Week 1 and 39 points to Edmonton last week. With this game having the lowest total of the week grab the Over.
PICK: Over 52.5
TORONTO ARGONAUTS AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS
Line: Saskatchewan -11.5, 53.5
Time: Monday, July 1, 7:00 p.m. ET
I faded Riders replacement QB Cody Fajardo last week and paid the price. Fajardo completed 27 of 34 passes for 360 yards and two touchdowns, and the Riders put up 41 points against the Redblacks in a three-point loss. Fajardo and dangerous running back William Powell should have a big game on Canada Day against an Argonauts defense that was gashed for 64 points by Hamilton last Saturday.
Toronto's offense wasn't much better with 14 points and 322 yards but has the talent to play much better with S.J. Green, Armanti Edwards and Derel Walker catching passes and James Wilder Jr. running the ball.
Saskatchewan's defense played very well in Week 1 against Hamilton before getting shredded for 447 yards and 44 points against Ottawa. With the O/U set at a very reasonable 53.5, back the Over.
PICK: Over 53.5
