2024 Rookie of the Year Odds: The Curious Case of Mason Miller

Mason Miller seemingly exceeded rookie status in 2023, except he may have finished just on the cusp of service time to extend his eligibility through the 2024 season. As one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, he is suddenly a top option.

May 9, 2024 • 11:24 ET • 7 min read
Mason Miller Oakland A's MLB
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Paul Skenes is on his way to the big leagues and Mason Miller is apparently still rookie-eligible (or is he?). So, there has been some shuffling atop the Rookie of the Year odds this week.

MLB odds had Skenes listed as long as +3,000 in the days before the report that he was Pittsburgh-bound. With some confusion around Miller's eligibility, he wasn't available as a betting option through the first month of the season and is still only available at select books.

Let's break down the AL and NL Rookie of the Year races and see how far the pitching phenom has risen in sportsbooks' estimation this week.

Odds to win AL Rookie of the Year

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365 Caesars
Athletics Mason Miller OTB +195 OTB +300
Orioles Colton Cowser +120 +280 +125 +125
Rangers Evan Carter +330 +450 +350 +350
Red Sox Wilyer Abreu +650 +700 +500 +525
Rangers Wyatt Langford +1,500 +3,300 +2,500 +1,500
Tigers Wenceel Perez +1,500 +3,900 +2,500 +3,000
Rays Junior Caminero +2,000 +1,700 +1,400 +2,000
Orioles Jackson Holliday +2,000 +8,000 +2,500 +4,500
Guardians Kyle Manzardo +2,000 +2,000 +1,400 +2,800
Astros Joey Loperfido +2,500 +3,300 OTB +2,500
Orioles Heston Kjerstad +3,000 +9,000 +5,000 +3,500
Red Sox Ceddanne Rafaela +3,500 +9,000 +8,000 +4,000
Guardians Brayan Rocchio +3,500 +9,000 +8,000 +8,500
Tigers Parker Meadows +3,500 +9,000 +6,000 +5,000
Angels Nolan Schanuel +4,000 +18,000 +8,000 +3,500

Odds as of 5-9-2024.

AL Rookie of the Year odds analysis

5/9/2024: We have a conundrum on our hands. Is Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller a rookie or not? Some books (FanDuel and Caesars) offer him as an option to win AL Rookie of the Year — with FD listing him as the betting favorite — while DraftKings and bet365, among others, haven't put him on the board... yet.

Baseball-Reference says he exceeded rookie eligibility in 2023 while FanGraphs cites him as a rookie in 2024.

Rookie eligibility for a pitcher is exceeded if he throws more than 50 innings at the MLB level or accumulates more than 45 days of service time on an MLB roster. First off, Miller threw 33 1/3 innings in 2023, so that can't be held against him. 

As for his service time, he was promoted to the A's on April 19 and was on the active roster through a start on May 7 (19 days). He was on the injured list (where service time does not accrue) until returning to the club on September 6, remaining with Oakland until the final day of the regular season on October 1 (26 days). In total, Miller accrued EXACTLY 45 days of service time, so he should maintain his rookie eligibility for this season. Now, if May 8 — the day his IL stint was retroactively dated — counts as a day of MLB service, then he would not have kept his first-year status.

In Jim Bowden's most recent AL rookie rankings for The Athletic, he lists Miller at No. 1. This inclusion is challenged in the comments. Bowden replied that the commissioner's office confirmed Miller is still a rookie for the 2024 season. 

Obviously, this is frustrating for bettors because Miller was not a betting option throughout spring training and the first month of the season as he emerged as one of the top closers in the game. Had he been listed alongside his first-year peers, his odds would have been considerably longer than the +300 you can get today. And if other books follow suit, you can bank on a less-than-favorable number.

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Odds to win NL Rookie of the Year

Player DraftKings FanDuel bet365 Caesars
Cubs Shota Imanaga +225 +190 +200 +175
Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto +380 +380 +350 +400
Pirates Jared Jones +400 +650 +550 +525
Cubs Michael Busch +600 +950 +650 +700
Dodgers Andy Pages +800 +950 +900 +625
Pirates Paul Skenes +1,000 +1,700 +2,000 +1,000
Padres Jackson Merrill +1,000 +1,200 +1,000 +1,200
Giants Jung Hoo Lee +2,000 +2,500 +2,200 +2,000
Brewers Jackson Chourio +2,500 +3,000 +2,500 +2,200
Nationals Jacob Young +2,800 +5,000 OTB +7,500
Giants Kyle Harrison +3,000 +6,000 +5,000 +7,000
Nationals Mitchell Parker +3,000 +6,000 OTB +7,500
Cardinals Masyn Winn +3,500 +5,000 +5,000 +7,000
Brewers Joey Ortiz +3,500 +6,000 +5,000 +7,000
Cubs Pete Crow-Armstrong +4,000 +5,000 +5,000 +6,500

Odds as of 5-9-2024.

NL Rookie of the Year odds analysis

5/9/2024: I hope you got Paul Skenes' number when it was still around 30/1 because a day after our last update, it was reported that the Pittsburgh Pirates would finally be promoting Skenes to the big-league roster to make his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday, May 11. FanDuel had 30/1 and it immediately moved to +1,700, leaving +2,000 at bet365 as the best number on Thursday morning.

However, there are a few roadblocks. One, will the Pirates use him enough? They've been limiting his workload at Triple-A, understandably attempting to limit injury risk. It would be surprising if he was suddenly throwing 90-100 pitches and completing seven innings on the regular. 

The other issue is just how well Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga has pitched. The Japanese import is 5-0 with a ridiculous 1.08 ERA over 41 2/3 innings across seven starts. As a result, he's taken over the top spot on the odds board. If Skenes' minor-league success translates to the bigs without many growing pains, he could certainly make a charge, especially when Imanaga eventually comes back to earth even a little bit.

Past Rookie of the Year winners

Previous AL RoY winners

Although all players have an equal chance of winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award, the honor has been claimed disproportionately by outfielders since its inception in 1949. Outfielders have 24 victories compared to 17 for pitchers and 17 for shortstops. Catchers are bringing up the rear with just two ROY victories over the past 72 years.

Year Player
2023 Orioles Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS)
2022 Mariners Julio Rodriguez (OF)
2021 Rays Randy Arozarena (OF)
2020 Mariners Kyle Lewis (OF)
2019 Astros Yordan Alvarez (OF)
2018 AngelsShohei Ohtani (P/OF)
2017 Yankees Aaron Judge (OF)
2016 Tigers Michael Fulmer (SP)
2015 Astros Carlos Correa (SS)
2014 White SoxJose Abreau (1B)
2013 Rays Wil Myers (OF)

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Previous NL RoY winners

No franchise has won more Rookie of the Year awards than the Dodgers. "The Blue Crew" have claimed 18 RoY trophies dating back to the club's early days in Brooklyn.

However, unlike the AL — where the West has been the recent home of the top rookies — the NL East has housed five of the last 11 RoYs, with a mix of outfielders, infielders, starting pitchers, and even a reliever.

Year Player (Team)
2023 Diamondbacks Corbin Carroll (OF)
2022 Braves Michael Harris (OF)
2021 Reds Jonathan India (2B)
2020 Brewers Devin Williams (RP)
2019 Mets Pete Alonso (1B)
2018 Braves Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF)
2017 Dodgers Cody Bellinger (1B/OF)
2016 Dodgers Cory Seager (SS)
2015 Cubs Kris Bryant (3B)
2014 Mets Jacob deGrom (SP)
2013 Marlins Jose Fernandez (SP)

MLB RoY odds explained

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Julio Rodriguez all but claimed the AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch. 

  • Julio Rodriguez -4,000

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $4,000 to win $100 by betting on J-Rod to win AL RoY. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.

  • Corbin Carroll +380

That means a bettor would profit $380 for a $100 wager on Carroll before the season started if he's ultimately successful (which he was!). 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

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MLB Rookie of the Year Awards FAQ

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