It's absolutely absurd how much of a favorite the New England Patriots are to win the AFC East division (-2,000). The Pats have won this division eight years in a row and 13 of the last 14 seasons. Covers Experts' Matt Fargo gives you a team-by-team breakdown, including season win total picks.
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New England Patriots (2016: 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Odds to win the AFC East: -2,000
Season win total: Over 12.5 (-107) / Under 12.5 (-109)
Why to bet the Patriots: The most dominant team in football for over a decade got even stronger in the offseason by signing wide receiver Brandin Crooks and corner Stephon Gilmore. It almost seems unfair how New England keeps doing it but once again, they are the heavy favorites to win the division and go back to the Super Bowl. It was 10 years ago that the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season and there is actually talk about doing it again this season. While that is unlikely, betting against this team should be done at your own risk as evidenced by their incredible 13-3 ATS record last season (16-3 ATS including the postseason).
Why not to bet the Patriots: As is the case every year, the Patriots have a bulls-eye on their backs and they never face an opponent that is not sky high to face them. One major factor is that New England will be overvalued in a lot of games this season based on expectations and the success it had last season. The schedule outside of the division is not easy as the Patriots face Kansas City, New Orleans, Houston, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver, Oakland and Pittsburgh, all of which are playoff contenders. That is not a very easy section of games.
Season win total pick: Under 12.5
Miami Dolphins (2016: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Odds to win the AFC East: +1,000
Season win total: Over 7.5 (+134) / Under 7.5 (-157)
Why to bet the Dolphins: Miami was a playoff team last season despite the fact Ryan Tannehill missed the last three games and it is expected to make another run this season. The loss of Tannehill for the year is the big news and while the addition of Jay Cutler is not an upgrade, it is not a downgrade either as he knows the system and should slide right in. He has plenty of playmakers around him. Overall, the Dolphins increased their talent on defense which was a weakness last season and improvements on that side of the ball can make them dangerous.
Why not to bet the Dolphins: While Cutler should be able to fit right in, he is known to take too many chances and he can single-handedly lose games - as we saw many times in Chicago. The emergence of Jay Ajayi was a pleasant surprise but he was very inconsistent as he ran for over 200 yards three times but was held to 51 yards or fewer eight times. While the defense should be better, Miami was No. 29 in rushing defense and that is not an easy fix overnight. After years of being bad, the Dolphins came out of nowhere last season and they will not be sneaking up on anyone. They are still nowhere near the Patriots despite some good upgrades.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Buffalo Bills (2016: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
Odds to win the AFC East: +1,500
Season win total: Over 6.5 (-130) / Under 6.5 (+110)
Why to bet the Bills: Playing New England twice does not help things. But playing the Jets twice does and now that the Dolphins have lost Ryan Tannehill, the Bills caught a break even though the two meetings are in Weeks 15 and 17. The rest of the schedule is not easy however. In additional to having to play the AFC West and NFC South, the other two games are against the Bengals and Colts which were challenging a couple years ago but winnable now. Buffalo has the toughest schedule of any team outside of the AFC West according to ESPN but they expect to once again be competitive.
Why not to bet the Bills: Can a run first team win consistently in what is now a pass happy league? We are about to find out as the Bills did nothing to upgrade their passing attack. The trade of Sammy Watkins was a bit of a surprise but he has been a ticking time bomb with his injury issues, so getting Jordan Matthews could be a slight upgrade. Buffalo still has the longest playoff drought in the NFL as it has not seen the postseason since 1999, and playing what is a tough schedule on paper is not going to make it any easier to break that streak.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
New York Jets (2016: 5-11 SU, 6-10 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Odds to win the AFC East: +10,000
Season win total: Over 4.5 (+160) / Under 4.5 (-190)
Why to bet the Jets: If you like underdogs and contrarian plays, the Jets are your team. They will be underdogs in every game this season and some are projecting them to go winless because the talent level is that bad. But for betting purposes, that is why there is a pointspread to try and even things out and while this team is young, these players are not going to tank as some claim as they are playing for their jobs. Complete rebuilds are no fun from a fan standpoint, especially for a team coming off a 10-win season the year before, but from a betting standpoint, the value will be there.
Why not to bet the Jets: The Jets will see plenty of value this upcoming season as no one will want to touch them so their spreads are going to be enormous. The problem here is where is the quality of football going to come from? They have no proven quarterback, the receiving corps is one of the worst ever in the NFL, Matt Forte is old, the offensive line is raw and the defense is starting from scratch. There was a lack of discipline last year and that was with numerous veterans on the team, so that discipline could be dangerous again and cost head coach Todd Bowles his job.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
2017 AFC East betting preview and odds: It's the Patriots followed by everyone else
The most dominant team in football for over a decade got even stronger in the offseason by signing wide receiver Brandin Crooks and corner Stephon Gilmore.
