The Falcons are coming off maybe the toughest loss in Super Bowl history, but they're out to prove they were no fluke in 2016 and are the faves to win the NFC South once again despite some tough competition in the division. Covers Expert Power Sports gives a team-by-team breakdown of the division, which includes his regular season win total picks. **video
Atlanta Falcons (2016: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 12-3-1 O/U)
Odds To Win Division: +164
Season Win Total: 9.5 (-108)
Why to bet the Falcons: The defending NFC Champs return the vast majority of last year’s league-leading offense, which averaged 34.1 points per game. Led by MVP Matt Ryan, this group scored 58 touchdowns a year ago. To put that number in its proper perspective, they had only one more drive end in either a punt or a turnover. The defense should be better this year as well. It’s Dan Quinn’s third year at the helm, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t be better. Make no mistake about it; there was nothing “phony” about the Dirty Birds’ run to the Super Bowl and of course who could forget they led the Patriots 28-3 before falling apart?
Why not to bet the Falcons: The offense is probably going to regress. Granted, it was still be one of the most prolific units in the league, but the loss of OC Kyle Shanahan certainly matters and I don’t see Ryan matching last year’s numbers. Also, the big question here is how will the team respond after gagging away the Super Bowl in February? In other sports, there have been recent examples of a team coming up short in a championship scenario, only to go “all the way” the following year. Clemson football, UNC hoops and the Cleveland Cavaliers all come to mind. But we haven’t seen a Super Bowl loser make it back to that game the following season since Buffalo’s string of setbacks in the early 1990’s. The division is vastly improved this year and with Atlanta expected to be favored in as many as 12 games, there should be ample opportunities to fade them.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 9.5
Carolina Panthers (2016: 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Odds to Win Division: +246
Season Win Total: Over 9.0 (-117) / Under 9.0 (+100)
Why to bet the Panthers: Trust me when I say that all signs are pointing up this year. Going into last year, no one believed Carolina would match 2015’s 15-1 mark, but the fall was far harsher than anyone could have predicted. They won nine fewer games due in large part to going from +20 to -2 in turnover margin and going 2-6 SU in one-score games (where they were 7-1 the previous season). Expect them to finish somewhere in between the last two years, this year. That means a potential return to the playoffs as Cam Newton will be healthier and he’s got a new weapon in Christian McCaffery. By virtue of finishing last in the South last year, they will play an easier schedule. With the 49ers, Bills and Saints being the first three opponents this year, a 3-0 SU start is a very real possibility.
Why not to bet the Panthers: They’ll improve, but by how much. Said improvement is expected as oddsmakers have installed them in as many as nine games. Already, they are nearly a full TD favorite at San Francisco in Week 1, so the value just might not be there. The offense scored 131 pts fewer in 2016 compared to ’15 as Cam Newton was beaten up regularly. There’s a question of instability here as GM Dabe Gettleman was fired in the summer and replaced with his predecessor Marty Hurney. Maybe not everyone in the organization is on the same page?
Season Win Total Pick: Over 9.0
New Orleans Saints (2016: 7-9 SU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Odds to Win Division: +441
Season Win Total: Over 8.0 (+111) / Under 8.0 (-130)
Why to bet the Saints: As long as the Drew Brees-Sean Payton nucleus remains present, the Saints are going to put up points. There’s also the perceived homefield advantage at the Superdome. (Team is favored in six of eight home games this year). They also play only seven “true” road games as they’ll play Miami in London, a very winnable game. While the rival Falcons scored more points, the Saints gained more yards than any other offense in the league last year. They are adding Adrian Peterson to the mix for this year. Given that this team was No. 3 in yards per game differential last year and had seven losses by a TD or less, one could argue they were better than their won-loss record showed.
Why not to bet the Saints: There are two sides to every equation. As automatic as it may be to proclaim this offense as “good,” it’s just as easy to call the defense “very bad.” Brees is also getting old (he’s 38). I expect very little out of Peterson. The team traded away top receiver Brandin Cooks to the Patriots. Unless they plan on winning a lot of shootouts, another average season (at best) should be expected here. Having covered a division best 11 games in ’16, I don’t expect them to be as successful at the betting window this season. They weren’t getting the usual respect at home (for some reason) last year.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
Odds to Win Division: +341
Season Win Total: Over 8.0 (-136) / Under 8.0 (+116)
Why to bet the Bucs: Meet 2017’s trendy team. This could be last year’s Raiders. What I mean by that is a team that’s improved it’s win total in back to back years and now set to make a major jump. The offense should be great as long as Jameis Winston can keep it together. He has a bevy of weapons to throw to, led by WR Mike Evans, who actually made Johnny Manziel look good once. The Bucs won at Atlanta and Carolina last year and also beat Kansas City and Seattle. So they’ve proven they can beat the big boys.
Why not to bet the Bucs: I am nowhere near as high on this group as everyone else seems to be. My main issue is that they managed to win nine games last year despite being favored in only three. Clearly, they caught the oddsmakers by surprise. Their +6 in net upsets led the league and indicates that regression could be on the way. For all the hype, the Bucs are favored in only five (maybe six) games this year, so this kind of reminds me of last year’s Jaguars (they won’t be that bad though). Personally, I believe this team was not as good as last year’s record. The division is tough, they won’t win at both Atlanta and Carolina again (trust me!) and I believe are set up for disappointment
Season Win Total Pick: Under 8.0
