The anytime goal scorer market for USA vs. Turkey is unlike most you'll find at the World Cup.
On paper, Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun deserve to sit atop the board. In reality, Mauricio Pochettino has already hinted at rotating his squad for the Group D finale, meaning several of the United States' biggest stars could be rested ahead of the knockout stage.
Normally, that would make backing those players an easy pass.
But the goal scorer markets at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — work a little differently. If a player is named in the squad but never leaves the bench, the contract settles at the market's closing price instead of automatically grading as a loss. That unique rule makes it possible to back players who may be rested without automatically losing your position if they never leave the bench.
With that in mind, here are my favorite USA vs. Turkey predictions and World Cup picks broken down into two favorites, two values, and two sleepers.
USA vs Turkey anytime goal scorer picks
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Christian Pulisic to score 1+ goal |
30% | +233 |
| Folarin Balogun to score 1+ goal |
29% | +245 |
 Arda Guler to score 1+ goal |
16% | +525 |
| Weston McKennie to score 1+ goal |
14% | +614 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu to score 1+ goal |
11% | +809 |
| Sergino Dest to score 1+ goal |
10% | +900 |
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My USA vs Turkey goal scorer predictions: Favorites
Christian Pulisic, USA (30%)
Christian Pulisic is still the market favorite for a reason.
He's the United States' most dangerous attacker and their first option whenever he's on the pitch. The obvious concern is whether he'll get any run after missing the game against Australia with a calf injury.
That's where Kalshi's settlement rules become important. If Pulisic never gets off the bench, this market settles at its closing price rather than grading as a losing ticket, reducing some of the downside associated with backing a player who could be rested.
Even if Pulisic only gets 15-20 minutes, he's still the United States' most dangerous threat and remains heavily involved whenever the Americans create chances in transition.
If you're putting together a larger betting card, don't forget to check out Josh Inglis' best World Cup parlays, which combine several of today's top betting angles into one ticket.
Folarin Balogun, USA (29%)
Folarin Balogun remains the Americans' most natural finisher, but he also appears to be one of the players Pochettino could protect before the Round of 32.
Should he see time, Balogun doesn't need a high volume of touches to make an impact. His movement inside the penalty area consistently creates separation from defenders, making him dangerous even if his minutes are managed.
If he doesn't, Kalshi's unique settlement rules soften the risk compared to a traditional sportsbook anytime goal scorer bet.
My USA vs Turkey goal scorer predictions: Values
Arda Guler, Turkey (16%)
If I'm looking beyond the favorites, Arda Guler is where I'd start as he leads our World Cup goal scorer cheat sheet.
Unlike the American stars, there are fewer questions surrounding his minutes, and Turkey should still look to finish the tournament on a positive note.
Guler is heavily involved whenever Turkey creates chances, whether that's arriving late into the box or threatening from distance and set pieces. At roughly a 16% implied probability, I think he's one of the stronger values available.
Weston McKennie, USA (14%)
Weston McKennie is an interesting middle ground.
McKennie has made a career out of arriving unnoticed into the box, particularly on second balls and set pieces, where his timing often catches defenders flat-footed.
Like the other American stars, lineup confirmation matters. But if he starts, I think his probability of scoring is slightly better than what this market suggests.
My USA vs Turkey goal scorer predictions: Sleepers
Hakan Calhanoglu, Turkey (11%)
If you're looking for a bigger price, Hakan Calhanoglu makes plenty of sense.
He'll have opportunities from direct free kicks, penalties if awarded, and late runs into attacking areas. Eleven percent feels light for a player who dominates so many of Turkey's dead-ball situations.
Sergino Dest, USA (10%)
This is unquestionably the longest shot on my board.
Dest doesn't score often, but he overlaps into central areas rather than simply overlapping on the wing, putting him in better shooting positions than most fullbacks.
If he ends up starting despite the expected rotation, a 10% implied probability isn't unreasonable for a small sprinkle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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