All three host nations advanced to the knockout round of the World Cup 2026. Canada has already advanced to the Round of 16, with USA heavily favored against Bosnia and Herzegovina, leaving Mexico with the toughest matchup of the three as they take on Ecuador tonight.
To help you fill out your wagers for this match, we've polled our soccer experts for their favorite World Cup picks in tonight's game — here are our Mexico vs. Ecuador expert picks, with the action kicking off at 9 p.m. ET at Estadio Banorte, with the TV broadcast on FOX.
Mexico vs Ecuador expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Chris Vasile: Both teams to score — YES |
+138 |
 Jason Ence: Over 0.5 1H goals — No |
+133 |
 Sam Farley: Ecuador to advance |
+170 |
 James Eastham: Regular time: Tie |
+194 |
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Chris Vasile's expert pick: Both teams to score — YES
Kalshi probability: 42%
American odds: +138
The market expects a low-scoring affair, with Under 2.5 goals heavily juiced at -250, but I think both teams find the net. Mexico should benefit from a true home atmosphere and have looked increasingly dangerous in attack as the tournament has progressed.
Ecuador also showed plenty of belief in its 2-1 win over Germany to close the group stage, proving it can push forward and create quality chances against top opposition. If Mexico grab the opener, I trust Ecuador to respond, making a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes one of the most likely game scripts.
Jason Ence's expert pick: Over 0.5 1H goals scored — NO
Kalshi probability: 43%
American odds: +133
This is a matchup of two attacks that aren’t very dynamic... and two defenses that want to frustrate opponents.
Ecuador plays compact, high-intensity defense, allowing just 8.9 PPDA, behind the fifth-most pressing defense of any nation in the group stage. Meanwhile, Mexico has conceded only five shots on target from 25 attempts.
Both nations are forcing opponents to take half their shots from outside the box, and allow less than 0.07 xG per shot. Add in Ecuador’s 3.58 fewer goals than expected due to their poor finishing, and you have the makings for a stagnant, scoreless opening stanza.
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Sam Farley's expert pick: Ecuador to advance - YES
Kalshi probability: 37%
American odds: +170
Ecuador is an incredibly strong defensive team and will be far tougher to break down than anybody Mexico have faced so far. Add in the Ecuadorian's familiarity with playing at altitude plus an ability to defend deep and soak up pressure, they’re a very dangerous matchup for El Tri.
The value play is taking Ecuador to get through, with their strong defense possibly shutting out Mexico.
James Eastham's expert pick: Regular time: Tie
Kalshi probability: 34%
American odds: +194
Mexico has a formidable unbeaten record at the Estadio Banorte, although many of their previous World Cup encounters at this famous venue were tied at the end of regulation time.
Ecuador has the game's two world-class performers — center-back William Pacho (PSG) and midfielder Moises Caicedo (Chelsea) — and look strong enough to avoid defeat.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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