The 2026 World Cup odds held steady through the Lamine Yamal injury scare, and now we know why.
Spain’s rising star went down clutching his hamstring against Celta Vigo, but Barcelona have since confirmed he’s expected to be fit for the tournament.
That clarity explains why the market didn’t move, and why Spain remain +450.
Latest World Cup Odds
| Country |  |
Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Spain |
+450 | 18.2% |
 France |
+550 | 15.4% |
 England |
+600 | 14.3% |
 Brazil |
+800 | 11.1% |
 Argentina |
+800 | 11.1% |
 Portugal |
+1100 | 8.3% |
 Germany |
+1200 | 7.7% |
 Netherlands |
+2000 | 4.8% |
 Norway |
+2500 | 3.8% |
 Belgium |
+3300 | 2.9% |
Odds as of 4-23.
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Spain World Cup odds: Why the market held firm
With Lamine Yamal expected to be ready for the World Cup, Spain’s odds holding steady starts to add up.
He’ll miss the rest of the club season, but Barcelona have made it clear he should be available for the tournament. That takes away the main concern tied to Spain’s price.
In futures markets, what matters is who’s available when the tournament begins. A short-term absence now doesn’t carry the same weight as missing the World Cup itself.
That’s why Spain remain at +450.
The scenario that would have forced a move is off the table.
World Cup betting odds: What to do now?
The window to fade Spain on injury news is gone.
With Yamal expected back for the World Cup, the market has already priced this correctly by holding the number.
At this point, there’s no edge tied to the injury. Any bet on Spain or against them has to come from a broader view of the field, not this situation.
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