The Connecticut Sun put their two-game winning streak on the line tonight against a dangerous Dallas Wings squad.
Bookmakers have installed the Wings as 6.5-point favorites on the road, and our Wings vs. Sun predictions explain why Dallas is primed to quiet the home crowd and cash the cover.
Read on to get my full analysis of tonight’s game and see my free WNBA picks for Thursday, July 2.
- UPDATE: Added Paige Bueckers prop!
Wings vs Sun prediction
Wings vs Sun best bet: Wings -6.5 (-115)
While the Connecticut Sun have won two straight, they are ill-equipped to deal with the Dallas Wings. Paige Bueckers and the Wings are careful on offense, leading the WNBA with a 1.88 assist/turnover ratio. That will stymie one way the Sun manage to stay in games: by creating 15.9 turnovers per game.
The Sun are last in offensive rating (98.2) and need help to keep up with their opponents. The Wings allow just 10.1 second-chance points per game, 14.0 ppg off turnovers, and 8.5 ppg off fast breaks. I like Dallas to cover giving up to 7.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: The Sun score a league-low 19.3% of their points from three-pointers, hitting just 5.1 threes pre game. They won’t take advantage of one of Dallas’s few weaknesses, as the Wings allow opponents to shoot 35.8% from beyond the arc.
Wings vs Sun same-game parlay
The Wings and Sun have hit the Over in each of their last four meetings, including all three games between the teams last year.
But in 2026, both teams are playing at a more controlled pace, and while Dallas has been good offensively – averaging 88.4 ppg – they aren’t near the top of the league, while Connecticut is dead last in scoring at 79.3 ppg. Throw in the fact that the Sun actually play some defense, and I’m backing the Under tonight.
The standout player in tonight’s game is Wings guard Paige Bueckers, who will look to show out as she returns to Connecticut, where she was a massive star in college.
Bueckers has hit multiple threes in five of her last eight games, and should get shots off against a Sun team that allows opponents to shoot 35.3% from deep.
Wings vs Sun SGP
- Wings -6.5
- Under 172.5
- Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 threes made
Wings vs Sun player prop pick
Paige Bueckers Over 20.5 points (-115)
Speaking of Bueckers, she’s on a scoring binge lately, putting up 25+ points in each of her last three games. Overall, the former UConn standout is averaging 19.9 ppg on the season, and has gone for 21+ points in five of her last eight games.
Bueckers averaged 21.0 ppg in her two meetings with the Sun last year, and Connecticut has suffered a decline even from last year’s squad that went 11-33. I’m expecting Bueckers to put on a show for her fans back in Connecticut, hitting the Over on her scoring prop at 20.5 points.
- Best bet: 10-12, -3.21 units
- SGP: 4-18, +4.55 units
- First basket: 3-0, +2.58 units
Wings vs Sun odds
- Spread: Dallas -6.5 (-115) | Connecticut +6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Dallas -300 | Connecticut +240
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 (-110) | Under 172.5 (-110)
Wings vs Sun trend
The Wings are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Sun in Connecticut. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Wings vs Sun
| Location | PeoplesBank Arena, Hartford, CT |
| Date | Thursday, July 2, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Wings vs Sun latest injuries
Wings: Alanna Smith (concussion) & Odyssey Sims (ankle) ruled day-to-day.
Sun: Aneesah Morrow (leg), Saniya Rivers (ankle) & Hailey Van Lith (ankle) ruled day-to-day.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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