Riding high off a scorching first half, the Golden State Valkyries enter tonight’s return from the All-Star break as -170 favorites against the Phoenix Mercury.
Golden State has won nine of its last 10 games to firmly cement itself in the contender conversation, and my Valkyries vs. Mercury predictions has expectations set on their relentless energy to simply outwork Phoenix’s veteran roster down the stretch.
Get the lowdown on this matchup with my free WNBA picks for Wednesday, July 29.
Valkyries vs Mercury prediction
Valkyries vs Mercury best bet: Valkyries -3.5 (-115)
The Golden State Valkyries have built a defensive juggernaut, and their point-of-attack intensity has been the key to their 8-2 ATS mark across their past 10 outings.
That paints a bleak picture for the slower, veteran Phoenix Mercury, so I’ll gladly lay the points with a Golden State team that takes care of the ball (11.5 turnovers per game, fewest in the league) and can stretch the lead from downtown. The Valkyries lead the WNBA with 31 3PA per game, dwarfing the Mercury’s 24.
Phoenix is 4-9 ATS at home this year, and I’d bet this up to -5.
COVERS INTEL: The Valkyries are doing it with defense – they’ve held eight of their last 10 opponents to 75 points or fewer, and that spells trouble for an erratic Mercury offense that’s shooting 44% from the field this year.
Valkyries vs Mercury same-game parlay
Even with Gabby Williams listed as questionable, the Valkyries are worthy favorites, and they’ve won both meetings between these teams this season.
Buckle up for a rock fight here, with both squads ranking in the bottom five in points and field goal attempts per game. The Under is also 8-2 in Golden State’s last 10 contests.
Alyssa Thomas is my top pick to clean the glass. She’s grabbed 8+ boards in three of her past four games and is in line for heavy minutes.
Valkyries vs Mercury SGP
- Valkyries moneyline
- Under 156.5
- Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 rebounds
Valkyries vs Mercury player prop pick
Veronica Burton Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
Veronica Burton is coming off an All-Star snub, and this is a perfect matchup for her gritty style. Burton posted a flashy 11-5-11 stat line against the Washington Mystics before the break, and she’s shooting 51% from the field this month.
If Williams is sidelined for Golden State tonight, Burton’s usage and shot volume should spike, and the do-it-all guard has dished 6+ dimes in four of her last five contests. She also breezed past this combo O/U number in both wins over the Mercury earlier this season, including a 25-point night in June.
- Best bet: 8-10, -2.30 units
- SGP: 3-15, -5.50 units
- Player prop: 4-3, +1.05 units
Valkyries vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Valkyries -3.5 (-115) | Mercury +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Valkyries -170 | Mercury +145
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Valkyries vs Mercury trend
The Under is 8-4 in the Valkyries’ road games this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Valkyries vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, July 29, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KPYX, KPHE |
Valkyries vs Mercury latest injuries
Valkyries: Gabby Williams F (Questionable).
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
