It’s a Western Conference basement battle tonight as the Phoenix Mercury look to snap a four-game skid here against the Los Angeles Sparks in their opening game of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup.
How will both team's recent struggles factor into tonight's Sparks vs. Mercury predictions?
Can a talented Phoenix team get back on track here? I unpack that and more in my free WNBA picks for Sunday, June 2.
Sparks vs Mercury predictions
My best bet
Dearica Hamby Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 bet365)
My analysis
It’s a new era in L.A. after Nneka Ogwumike’s exit in free agency and, while the results have been patchy so far, forward Dearica Hamby hasn’t been fazed by the monster workload she’s taken on this year.
As the Los Angeles Sparks’ focal point through the first seven games, Hamby is on pace to cruise past her 2023 numbers, and she’s got a path to another huge night here against a Phoenix Mercury defense that’s giving up the second-most points in the league.
With Hamby filling the box score, I’m jumping on the combined Over for her points, rebounds, and assists tonight. The O/U line of 34.5 feels a little light to me, given that the L.A. star has gone past that total in six of her seven outings this season.
Hamby finished with 24 points, 13 boards, and three assists in Thursday’s loss to the Chicago Sky, and she should get most of the way to this Over on points and rebounds alone. She’s averaging 20.6 ppg and 12.7 rpg while playing at least 36 minutes in all but one game thus far in 2024.
She’s even flashed more playmaking skills this year, with a seven-assist effort against the Indiana Fever last week. Offseason acquisition Kia Nurse is starting to find her feet, and that gives the Sparks a secondary scorer to take some of the pressure off Hamby.
Phoenix continues to be undersized with Brittney Griner sidelined, and that opens the door for Hamby to take control in the paint at both ends of the court.
Sparks vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Dearica Hamby Over 34.5 pts + reb + ast
Sparks +4.5
Natasha Cloud Over 7.5 assists
It’s tough to trust this Mercury team on their current slide. They shot just 24% from the field in an embarrassing 70-47 loss to the Connecticut Sun last week, and Diana Taurasi has gone 9-for-34 in her last three games.
The Sparks are on a bumpy stretch too and had 18 turnovers in this week’s loss to Chicago, but Nurse has stepped up in a big way in her last two outings and her veteran presence could be an X-factor for an upswing in L.A.’s season. I prefer taking the points with the visitors in this spot.
I’m also adding a Natasha Cloud prop for my SGP. Though her assist numbers dipped this week, she already has three outings with double-digit dimes, and her playmaking is the key to unlocking Taurasi and Kahleah Copper.
The Over on 7.5 assists feels well within reach for Cloud here, despite the potential for a low-scoring contest. Rebecca Allen’s potential return from the concussion protocol would be another boost for this Cloud pick.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sparks vs Mercury odds
Sparks vs Mercury live odds
Get the latest Sparks vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.
Sparks vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +4.5 | Phoenix -4.5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +168 | Phoenix -195
- Over/Under: Over 162.5 | Under 162.5
Sparks vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis
- While the Mercury get the favorites tag on their home court, the Sparks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after an ATS loss.
- The Sparks have also won three of the past four meetings between these teams, including a 91-62 blowout last season.
- An O/U line of 164 feels high here, with L.A. averaging the second-fewest ppg so far this season.
- The Mercury have fallen short of the 80-point mark in three straight games, and the teams’ last two meetings hit the Under.
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Sparks vs Mercury trend
The Mercury have repeatedly come up short against the rest of the West, going 5-15 in their last 20 contests against their conference rivals. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Mercury.
Sparks vs Mercury game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Spectrum Sportsnet, Arizona's Family Sports |
Sparks vs Mercury latest injuries
Sparks: Layshia Clarendon (Out), Azura Stevens (Out).
Mercury: Rebecca Allen (Out), Brittney Griner (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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