The race for the No. 2 seed is the big focus for tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, with the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces — and their matching 26-14 records — in action.
The Aces have won 12 in a row as they head to Minnesota to take on the Lynx, who’ve already locked up the No.1 seed, while the Mercury have an easier task against the slumping Washington Mystics.
We shouldn’t forget the Golden State Valkyries either, who can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over the Dallas Wings.
My WNBA picks break down my favorite player props for Thursday, September 4.
WNBA player prop bets for September 4
Thomas o23.5 points + assists (-112)
Bueckers o4.5 assists (-120)
Wilson o10.5 rebounds (-106)
Alyssa Thomas Over 23.5 points + assists
Alyssa Thomas is the Phoenix Mercury’s biggest weapon heading into the postseason, and her consistency makes her an obvious candidate for prop picks. I like this combo Over tonight against the Washington Mystics, especially with Thomas coming off another standout effort on Tuesday against the Indiana Fever, where she posted a 23-9-9 line.
Her 17 field-goal attempts that night were her most since July 30, and there should be ample scoring chances against a Washington Mystics team that’s dropped its last seven contests. Thomas has now finished with double-digit points in 17 straight outings — and 14+ in eight of her past 11 games.
Thomas could do major damage in either of these prop categories. She’s dished 15+ dimes twice in the last two weeks, and her assist tally should remain healthy as long as she’s surrounded by bucket-getters like Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video
Paige Bueckers Over 4.5 assists
The Dallas Wings are on an eight-game skid, but I still expect Paige Bueckers to put up good numbers tonight against the Golden State Valkyries.
Though Golden State’s swarming defense may limit her scoring chances, Bueckers is clearly the most talented playmaker in a depleted Dallas rotation — and I see that translating to 5+ assists here.
Paige had a quiet outing against the Minnesota Lynx on Monday, but she piled up a combined 19 dimes in her two prior contests. Her ability to get into the lane will again be critical in creating open looks for her teammates, and Maddy Siegrist has been one of the beneficiaries lately.
With the Wings’ lengthy injury report, there’s not much chance of Bueckers’ workload being cut back. She logged 30+ minutes in eight of her 10 outings in August, and I’m wagering on her to have her fingerprints on plenty of the Dallas baskets tonight, padding her rookie season average of 5.3 APG.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: KFAA 29, KPIX+
A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds
It’s fair to say the Las Vegas Aces owe the Minnesota Lynx some payback after a 111-58 thumping in early August, and A’ja Wilson & Co. look like a different kind of threat a month on from that low point.
Wilson is the biggest reason for that, and I expect her to embrace the task of battling Napheesa Collier on the glass tonight. This Over on a line of 10.5 rebounds comes at a nice price, and Wilson has grabbed 12+ boards in seven of her last 10 games, including 16 rebounds against the New York Liberty’s towering frontcourt.
The Aces haven’t played since last Wednesday, and there’s an urgency in the race for the No. 2 seed that the Lynx don’t have, with the No. 1 spot already secured. For Minnesota, it’s just about getting to the playoffs healthy, so it would be no surprise if Las Vegas wins the hustle points.
I’m banking on Wilson to play 35+ minutes for the third straight game and set the tone with another big rebounding haul.
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Prime Video
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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