The Washington Mystics will continue their quest to pick up their first win of the WNBA season as they visit the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday night.
The Mystics find themselves as underdogs in the WNBA odds yet again as they visit the Dream but our Mystics vs. Dream predictions are going in a different direction.
My WNBA picks for June 11 break down whether tonight’s game will mirror the first low-scoring matchup between these teams earlier this season.
Mystics vs Dream predictions
My best bet
Under 156.5 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
A lot of the recent narrative around the Washington Mystics has been that they’re not as bad as their record suggests. After all, Washington has lost nine of its games by less than 10 points, showing that they’re right on the cusp of grabbing at least a handful of wins. But there’s no such thing as a good 0-12 team, and the Mystics are no exception to that rule.
Washington has been the worst offensive team in the league so far in 2024, posting an offensive rating of just 92.2. The Mystics are among the worst WNBA teams in overall shooting (40.8%) and are dead last in points (74.4 ppg).
The problem is simple: the lack of even a single elite scorer who can consistently create scoring opportunities. Ariel Atkins (13.2 ppg) has been a consistent scorer throughout her career but is better known for her elite perimeter defense.
Worse still, she’s shooting just 39.8% from the field and 31.3% from three-point range this year, both career lows.
None of that would be a problem on a team where Atkins wasn’t the primary scorer. But she leads Washington in points, with center Shakira Austin (11.7 ppg) the only other player in double figures.
If there’s any team in the WNBA that challenges the Mystics in terms of offensive futility, it’s the Atlanta Dream. The Dream are second-worst in scoring (76.7 ppg), offensive rating (95.2), and effective field goal percentage (45.5%). Atlanta has more consistent scorers than Washington, with Allisha Gray (16.0 ppg), Rhyne Howard (15.1 ppg), and Tina Charles (12.9 ppg) all options that opponents have to respect in big moments, but the overall scoring numbers aren’t that much different between the Dream and the Mystics.
Atlanta is the better team because it plays more defense than Washington, and that’s what makes the Dream the favorites at home tonight. But both teams struggle to score the ball, and we’ve already seen that in their first matchup. On May 29, these teams combined for just 140 points on 39.0% shooting.
I expect more of the same tonight. With the total far above what we saw in the first meeting between these teams, I’m taking the Under.
Mystics vs Dream same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 156.5
Mystics +6.5
Tina Charles 8+ rebounds
The lackluster offense on display tonight should pay us off on the Under, so we’ll start with that bet for our same-game parlay as well. In addition, I’m taking the Mystics to cover on the road. Washington has consistently kept games close even against some of the top teams in the WNBA, and in a low-scoring affair, 6.5 points is a lot of cushion on the underdog.
Finally, I’ll add a bet on Tina Charles to pick up at least 8 rebounds. Charles is averaging 9.1 boards per game, has hit that total in four of her last five games, and should have a few extra opportunities over the course of the game if these teams simply aren’t scoring the ball well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mystics vs Dream odds
Mystics vs Dream live odds
Get the latest Mystics vs Dream WNBA odds for tonight.
Mystics vs Dream opening odds
- Spread: Washington +7 | Atlanta +7
- Moneyline: Washington +250 | Atlanta -308
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Mystics vs Dream spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tonight’s line has shortened since opening, starting at Atlanta -7.5 before dropping to the current consensus of Dream -7, with some books going to -6.5.
- While Washington may be winless on the year, they’re the better team against the spread in this matchup, putting up a 6-5-1 ATS record compared to a 4-5 ATS mark for the Dream.
- Atlanta is playing to an average total of 155.3 this season, while the Mystics are averaging totals of 158.3.
- These teams have hit the Under in each of their last three meetings, dating back to last season.
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Mystics vs Dream trend
The Under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs Dream.
Mystics vs Dream game info
| Location: | Gateway Center Arena at College Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PeachtreeTV, Peachtree Sports Network, Monumental Sports Network |
Mystics vs Dream latest injuries
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Dream: Text.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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