It’s the regular season finale for the Dallas Stars, who will try to snap a 10-game losing skid when they host the Phoenix Mercury.
Locked into the 4-seed and a date with the defending champion New York Liberty in Round 1, Phoenix will likely lean into their reserves for this one.
Our Mercury vs. Wings predictions and WNBA picks believe that the spread is a little too large and we like the home team to cover.
Mercury vs Wings predictions
My Mercury vs Wings best bet: Wings +5 (-112 at FanDuel)
The Phoenix Mercury's rest decision came in the fourth quarter of last game against the Los Angeles Sparks, when it was determined they couldn’t advance higher than a 4-seed.
Pulling the starters and going with the reserves the rest of the way, the Mercury lost its second straight, 88-83 to the Sparks.
The bench mob should see more action Thursday, as Phoenix looks to take three of four from the Dallas Wings this season. They’ve owned Dallas of late, taking five of the last six head-to-head matchups.
Staggering might be light a word to describe the Wings’ work down the home stretch. They have just one win in their last 16 games, and were routed by the Sparks last time out, 91-77.
Dallas has the league’s worst defense, allowing 88.3 points per game, and teams lighting them up from 3-point range at a WNBA-worst 38.7% clip.
However, with Phoenix trying to get out of this one healthy, this might be Dallas’ best chance in a while to pick up a win.
The Mercury’s bench mob did lead the league in bench scoring this season, but at just 25.1 points per game, while shooting 40.9% from the field and 32.9% from distance.
That’s a lot easier for the Wings to handle than the Mercury’s full boat. There are just enough points her to take the underdog.
Mercury vs Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Wings +5
Over 165.5 points
Wings/Wings halftime and game result
As you can imagine, the books are hesitant posting any player props until there’s more certainty on who’s in and who’s out of the lineup.
Our SGP will take the Over, which has hit in each of the last seven meetings between these teams. Each of the Overs hit in the last seven have cruised past the 166-point mark, which is the line for Thursday.
As we’re thinking upset, we’ll build up the juice with taking the Wings at home against a team with nothing to play for. Dallas to lead and half and win the game builds the juice to +511.
Dallas has only nine wins on the year, but seven have been with a halftime lead.
Mercury vs Wings odds
Mercury vs Wings live odds
Mercury vs Wings opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -5 (-108) | Dallas +5 (-112)
- Moneyline: Phoenix -215 | Dallas +172
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-112) | Under 165.5 (-108)
Mercury vs Wings trend
Phoenix is 0-4-0 against the spread in its last four games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Wings.
How to watch Mercury vs Wings
| Location | College Park Center, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KPHE, KFAA |
Mercury vs Wings latest injuries
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Wings: Luisa Geiselsoder (shoulder), JJ Quinerly (ACL), Arike Ogunbowale (knee), Li Yueru (knee) & Tyasha Harris (knee) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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