Despite the chunky 8.5-point spread in favor of the host Indiana Fever, tonight’s rematch with the Phoenix Mercury won’t lack drama.
These teams battled in a heated come-from-behind win for Indiana on Monday, with five technical fouls handed out and an ejection as players clashed (and pointed) in the fourth quarter.
Fever forward Aliyah Boston got lost in the sauce of that rally, with Indiana leaning into the 3-pointer (34 3PAs) to push it back into the game. Boston attempted only nine shots (four of which were 3-pointers) and finished with eight points and nine rebounds.
Our Mercury vs. Fever predictions bank on Boston to play a larger role in this rematch. My WNBA picks like her to top her combo prop of points + rebounds on June 24.
Mercury vs Fever prediction
Mercury vs Fever best bet: Aliyah Boston Over 25.5 points + rebounds (-110)
Four of Aliyah Boston’s nine FGAs came in an ice-cold first quarter for the Indiana Fever, which shot just 2-for-18 in the opening frame Monday.
With Indiana trailing by 21 points, the offense went away from Boston and out to the perimeter. She finished with just 20.3% usage after an average rate of 27.4% in the previous eight games.
Coach Stephanie White demands a stronger start tonight which means going back to Boston inside to begin the game.
She’s projected for as many as 17 points and 11 rebounds, which should have her points + rebounds prop priced at -140.
COVERS INTEL: Boston upped her rebounds to 9.9 over the last eight contests. The Phoenix Mercury are 10th in rebound rate (49.2%) and could be missing leading rebounder Natasha Mack (questionable).
Mercury vs Fever same-game parlay
Indiana started Monday’s game in a 21-point hole but showed just how good it can be by battling back for a 9-point win. It was a deflating loss for Phoenix, which is stuck in a 1-5 SU rut the past six games.
The Mercury were already dealing with injuries in the backcourt, but Mack’s injury leaves them short handed on the road in a tight turnaround. This 8.5-point spread isn’t too far off the closing line from Monday.
Boston’s offense got sapped due to the Fever falling behind but she was active to start that game and Indiana gets her going early tonight. She’s second on the team in usage and has upped her offense and rebounding in the past eight outings. Projections call for as many as 28 combined stats for this prop.
Caitlin Clark has knocked down three triples in back-to-back games and is starting to heat up from outside after an inconsistent start to the season. Phoenix struggles to slow down outside shooters, allowing a league high in triples.
Mercury vs Fever SGP
- Fever -8.5
- Aliyah Boston Over 25.5 points + rebounds
- Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 threes
Mercury vs Fever player prop pick
Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 threes (-120)
I bet this exact same prop on Monday but got a much better return (+105) on Caitlin Clark to make three or more triples.
She did just that, knocking down 3-of-8 treys in the first half before attempting just two more 3-pointers (both misses) in the final two frames.
It was the second straight game in which Clark hit three or more 3-pointers and the fourth time in the past seven outings. She made three or more triples in just two of her first nine games of 2026. Game projections sit at 2.5 makes from deep with a higher ceiling, considering the competition.
Helping her find her form from distance is a Phoenix defense among the worst at defending the perimeter. The Mercury sit second last in 3-point defending (37.6%) and allow a WNBA-high 9.7 makes from downtown per outing.
Phoenix limps into this return meeting with Indiana, not only missing key bodies in the backcourt to counter Clark but could be without center Natasha Mack, causing a shuffle in the rotation. That forces the smaller Mercury lineup to help out inside with doubles, giving Clark plenty of space to shoot on kickouts.
- Best bet: 10-9, -0.14 units
- SGP: 4-14, +2.4 units
Mercury vs Fever odds
- Spread: Mercury +8.5 | Fever -7.5
- Moneyline: Mercury +275 | Fever -350
- Over/Under: Over 175.5 | Under 175.5
Mercury vs Fever trend
Aliyah Boston has topped her combo prop of points + rebounds in seven of her last 10 games, averaging a collective 26.6 in those categories. Her projections for tonight sit as high as 28 combined points + rebounds. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Fever
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Wednesday, June 24, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA |
Mercury vs Fever latest injuries
Mercury: Monique Akoa Makani G (Out), Jovana Nogic G (Contract suspended), Sami Whitcomb G (Out), Natasha Mack C (Questionable).
Fever: Caitlin Clark G (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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