Amid a turbulent week for WNBA leadership, the Finals will put the spotlight back on the court. Game 1 tips off tonight, with the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury battling for the crown.
The coverage of Napheesa Collier’s comments this week was the latest reminder that the WNBA is on an upward curve, and we should get a tight series here — now a best-of-seven — to cap off a rollercoaster season.
My Mercury vs. Aces props and WNBA picks dig into this October 3 matchup, including wagers on one of the Aces’ star guards in Jackie Young, and the Mercury’s biggest X-factor in DeWanna Bonner.
Mercury vs Aces props
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
 Young o1.5 3s |
-125 |
 Sabally o16.5 pts |
+100 |
| Bonner o5.5 rebs |
+110 |
Jackie Young Over 1.5 3-pointers
Throughout this playoff run, when the Las Vegas Aces have needed a reliable sidekick for A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young has answered the call — and there’s every reason to expect her clutch play to carry over to the Finals against the Phoenix Mercury.
Young poured in 32 points in the decisive Game 5 against the Indiana Fever earlier this week, and I’m taking the Over on 1.5 made 3-pointers tonight in the series opener.
With some of her teammates struggling, Young went 4-for-11 from downtown in Tuesday’s win, and she’s nailed this Over in eight of her past 12 contests. She also had 2+ triples in three of the four meetings with the Mercury this year.
It helps that Young has been here before on the league’s biggest stage, and she’s found another gear in these playoffs. After averaging 16.5 PPG in the regular season, while shooting a healthy 36% from beyond the arc, she’s finished with 25+ points in three of her eight postseason outings.
Satou Sabally Over 16.5 points
If the Mercury are going to lift the WNBA championship trophy, we have to see the best version of Satou Sabally.
She’s met that high standard during these playoffs, particularly in the last round as Phoenix eliminated the favored Minnesota Lynx, and I’m jumping on this price for a points prop O/U line that feels light.
Sabally has gone past the 20-point mark in four of her last five outings, and she scored 68 points across the final three games against the Lynx. She stands out as a major matchup problem here for the Aces, who don’t really have a wing stopper capable of competing with Sabally’s size and outside shooting.
We’re going to see a lot of Alyssa Thomas and Wilson going toe-to-toe, but who will Becky Hammon turn to if Sabally gets on a roll?
Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts has pressed all the right buttons in his second year in the job, so don’t be surprised if Phoenix puts an emphasis on early looks for Sabally tonight.
DeWanna Bonner Over 5.5 rebounds
Veteran savvy becomes even more valuable in the Finals, so we can’t overlook two-time WNBA champ DeWanna Bonner and her potential impact off the bench.
She’s logged 25+ minutes in three of the Mercury’s last four contests, and she’ll be a key part of the visitors’ plan for limiting Wilson on the glass. That makes this plus-odds Over worth a long look for Game 1.
Bonner has hauled in 6+ rebounds in five of her last six games, with 8+ boards in three of those outings, and it’s easy to see Phoenix leaning on the know-how of a Thomas-Bonner frontcourt for long stretches, especially to settle the nerves early in this series.
Both Bonner and Thomas lost to the Aces in the 2022 Finals in their Connecticut Sun days, and this is a chance for payback. I expect Bonner to amp up the hustle off the bench and spark the second unit on the way to cashing this Over.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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