The Las Vegas Aces will open their title defense on Saturday afternoon as they host the Phoenix Mercury in a rematch of last year’s finals.
Las Vegas dominated that series in 2025, and I’m expecting it to continue that success to start the new season in my Mercury vs. Aces predictions.
Let’s dive into the season opener for both teams with my free WNBA picks for Saturday, May 9.
Mercury vs Aces prediction
Mercury vs Aces best bet: Aces -9.5 (-110)
The Las Vegas Aces come into the 2026 season not only as the defending champions, but having won three titles in the last four years.
They return their six biggest scorers, including their critical core players in Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, and – of course – A’ja Wilson, who is still in her prime and making her case as the greatest player in WNBA history.
The Phoenix Mercury made the finals last season as well, but were swept in four games by the Aces. The Mercury come back this year without leading scorer Satou Sabally, and the loss of that firepower will make it difficult to contend with Las Vegas.
The Aces are at home, have a major talent advantage, and owned Phoenix last year. I love them to start the 2026 season with a big win.
COVERS INTEL: A’ja Wilson was dominant against the Mercury in the regular season last year, averaging 25.0 points and 15.7 rebounds in three games against Phoenix.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay
The Aces and Mercury combined for a huge number of points in the WNBA Finals last year, averaging a total of 176.3 ppg during the series. They also hit the Over in each of those games, so I’m banking on that trend to continue heading into the 2026 season.
I’m also going to take A’ja Wilson to hit the Over on her total of 23.5 points. Wilson was dominant in the Finals against Phoenix, averaging 28.5 ppg against the Mercury as a part of Las Vegas’ sweep. I see no reason why she won’t continue to dominate Phoenix to start 2026.
Mercury vs Aces SGP
- Aces -9.5
- Over 167.5
- A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 points
Mercury vs Aces first basket scorer: A’ja Wilson (+425)
Let’s be honest: who else would I be picking here? Wilson is the single most dominant scorer in WNBA history, averaging a record 21.4 ppg for her career. And we’ve already seen her absolutely dominate the Mercury over and over again in her recent matchups against Phoenix.
Even if we didn’t know all that, the fact that Wilson can get easy buckets in the paint makes her a great choice to get a quick two to start the game. She’s one of the best bets in the WNBA for first basket scorer props, and I’m happy to start the season by choosing her to score first.
Mercury vs Aces odds
- Spread: Phoenix +9.5 (-110) | Las Vegas -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +350 | Las Vegas -450
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 (-110) | Under 167.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Aces trend
Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Phoenix. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, May 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: Valériane Ayayi, Monique Akoa Makani & Sami Whitcomb (knee) ruled out.
Aces: Dana Evans (leg) ruled out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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