Just half a game separates the No. 2 and No. 5 seeds in the WNBA standings, which means Thursday’s clash between the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury and the No. 5 Las Vegas Aces could have critical playoff implications.
My WNBA picks and Mercury vs. Aces predictions see another big night on the glass for superstar A’ja Wilson while the Aces extend their current win streak in a high-scoring matchup.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My Mercury vs Aces best bet: A’ja Wilson 13+ rebounds (+115 at bet365)
A'ja Wilson is averaging 10 rebounds per game on the season, and she’s pulled down at least 13 boards nine times. Though Wilson has reached this milestone in just over 30% of her appearances in 2025, she’s done it in half of her last eight.
Wilson has been unstoppable during the Las Vegas Aces’ eight-game win streak, averaging 13.1 rebounds in that span. During Las Vegas’ heater, the superstar forward has compiled at least 12 rebounds six times and at least 13 rebounds four times.
Of Wilson’s nine games with at least 13 rebounds, six of them have come at home. Two of those nine games were against the Phoenix Mercury, as she pulled down 18 and 16 rebounds in those contests. Last season, Wilson finished with 17, 15, 13, and 13 rebounds, and she’s reached this mark in six straight against tonight’s opponent.
Phoenix has allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game to opponents, making this a favorable matchup for Wilson. To make this rebound line even sweeter, Wilson has averaged 11.4 boards at Michelob ULTRA Arena compared to just 8.6 boards across all other venues.
This line is set at 11.5 across our featured sportsbooks, but FanDuel offers this juicy alt line with plus-money odds. I expect Wilson to extend her streak of 13-rebound games against Phoenix to seven in this primetime matchup.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
A’ja Wilson 13+ rebounds
Aces -1.5
Over 171.5
Las Vegas is the hottest team in the W with eight straight victories. During that win streak, the Aces have gone 6-1-1 ATS and sport the top Offensive Rating at 115.4.
Las Vegas’ Net Rating of 12 is third-best in that span. Over their last seven at home, the Aces sport a Net Rating of 2, while the Mercury sport a Net Rating of -2.9 across their last six on the road.
Over the last eight games, the Aces have put up 89 points per game, while the Mercury have put up 83. Phoenix has been potent offensively over its last six road games, posting 87.8 points per game.
Over Las Vegas’ last seven at home and Phoenix’s last six on the road, each team has allowed better than 85 points.
Tonight’s matchup promises to be a closely contested affair between two powerhouse teams, but I’m predicting a victory for the home team, as the Aces extend their current win streak.
With each team rolling on offense, and below-average defense in recent contests, I’m betting the Over.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +1.5 (-110) | Las Vegas -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +105 | Las Vegas -125
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 (-110) | Under 171.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Aces trend
The Aces have won and covered in two straight head-to-head matchups with the Mercury. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Aces.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date | Thursday, August 21, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Aces: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (personal) out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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