The Minnesota Lynx lost a heartbreaker to the Atlanta Dream in their season opener, and they’ll look to get back on track when they travel to Mortgage Matchup Center to face the Phoenix Mercury in a rematch of last season’s semifinals.
With Napheesa Collier still on the sideline, No. 2 pick Olivia Miles provided an offensive spark, and my Lynx vs. Mercury predictions expect the rookie to stay hot as a scorer.
Read more in my WNBA picks for Tuesday, May 12.
Lynx vs Mercury prediction
Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Olivia Miles Over 21.5 points + assists (+100)
In her first game, Olivia Miles led the Minnesota Lynx in points (21) and assists (8), becoming the fifth player in WNBA history with at least 20 points and five dimes in a debut.
Napheesa Collier led the Lynx in points per game (22.9) and Usage Rate (27.8) and finished third in assists (3.2) last season. With Collier sidelined, Miles will have plenty of opportunities to pick up the slack.
Miles’ Usage Rate of 26.3 ranks ninth among players with at least 30 minutes per game, and her eight assists are fourth-most. It’s a small sample size, but Miles’ college success and electric debut give me plenty of confidence in another strong effort.
COVERS INTEL: Olivia Miles has a proven record as a high-level scorer and facilitator. In her final collegiate season, she finished ninth in the nation in total points (744) and second in total assists (252).
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay
Olivia Miles Over 19.5 points + assists
Kayla McBride Over 16.5 points
Lynx +4
In 11 games without Napheesa Collier last season, Kayla McBride’s free throw attempts soared from 1.8 to 5.1 and her scoring jumped from 13.7 to 15.5. She finished with 20 points and five attempts at the charity stripe on Saturday.
Last season, the Phoenix Mercury surrendered the fifth-most free-throw attempts to opponents, and McBride should have no problem getting to the basket and drawing contact.
Minnesota was the road underdog in the season opener and covered the 5.5-point spread with a narrow loss to the Atlanta Dream.
The Lynx gave up a 15-point halftime lead, and I expect the team to learn from its second-half meltdown and play strong basketball down the stretch. Phoenix should be favored here, but the Lynx can keep it close. This line opened at +2.5, but I’m happy to take it at +4.
Lynx vs Mercury SGP
- Olivia Miles Over 19.5 points + assists
- Kayla McBride Over 15.5 points
- Lynx +4
Lynx vs Mercury first basket scorer: Alyssa Thomas (+450)
Natasha Mack won the opening tip in each of the Mercury’s first two games. At 6’4 with a 6’11 wingspan, Mack has a height and reach advantage over most opposing centers. That will be the case when she jumps against the 6’2 Natasha Howard.
Howard lost the tip to the taller Angel Reese in Minnesota’s opener against the Dream, and I expect Mack to get the better of her on Tuesday.
Including last season’s Finals and the 2026 preseason and regular season, Mack has tipped the ball to Alyssa Thomas in seven of eight games, and Thomas has attempted the first shot four times.
Lynx vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Minnesota +4 | Phoenix -4
- Moneyline: Minnesota +155 | Phoenix -185
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 | Under 170.5
Lynx vs Mercury trend
The Mercury had a 15-16 ATS record as the favorite last season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Lynx vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Victory+, KTVK |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (ankle) and Dorka Juhasz (foot) ruled out.
Mercury: Valériane Ayayi, Monique Akoa Makani & Sami Whitcomb (knee) ruled out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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