It says everything about the WNBA’s growth that the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury are squaring off in the first round of the playoffs.
This feels overqualified for a No. 4 vs No. 5 matchup, but New York has put together an uneven title defense this year, and my Liberty vs. Mercury predictions point to Phoenix finding another gear in today’s Game 1.
Check out my free WNBA picks and betting tips for this marquee September 14 battle.
Liberty vs Mercury predictions
My Liberty vs Mercury best bet: Mercury moneyline (+110 at bet365)
Heading into Game 1, the locker room messaging writes itself for the Phoenix Mercury, who’ve been tagged as nobody-believes-in-us home underdogs.
An opening round matchup with the New York Liberty is no picnic, but Phoenix went 15-7 at home this season and had put together a six-game win streak before taking its foot off the gas over the past week.
The Mercury also got the better of the Liberty in the regular season, winning three of the four meetings, and their veteran core is unlikely to be shaken by the prospect of facing New York’s top-tier talent.
Alyssa Thomas & Co. won both matchups against the Liberty at PHX Arena this year by 15+ points, and I’m grabbing the hosts’ moneyline here.
With Thomas at the controls, and Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally both capable of going off, Phoenix has all the ingredients to make a deep postseason run, while the Liberty’s star trio of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones have all dealt with injuries this year.
It’s hard to know what to expect from New York, which wrapped up the regular season with a pair of wins over weakling opponents but finished with a 10-12 record on the road this year. Don’t be surprised if the visitors get off to a slow start.
PHX Arena should be rocking today, and the Mercury are well placed to land the first blow.
Liberty vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury moneyline
Kahleah Copper Over 17.5 points
Under 164.5
Kahleah Copper is the key to a Phoenix victory here, as a proven bucket-getter in a contest where easy baskets could come at a premium, and I like this Over.
She scored 22 points against the Liberty in their last meeting, and she made her 3-pointers at a 38% clip during the regular season.
The Under is 8-2 in the past 10 outings for both squads, and it was a winning ticket in their last two head-to-head matchups, too. When you layer on the playoff pressure, we could get long stretches with the defenses on top, and a 164.5 total O/U feels like a bloated number.
Liberty vs Mercury odds
Liberty vs Mercury live odds
Liberty vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: New York -2 | Phoenix +2
- Moneyline: New York -135 | Phoenix +115
- Over/Under: Over 164.5 | Under 164.5
Liberty vs Mercury trend
New York is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.
How to watch Liberty vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, September 14, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Liberty vs Mercury latest injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Mercury: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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