Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Lynx Up to Cover

The Dallas Wings should be the next team to clinch a spot in the WNBA playoffs. It won't be tonight, but that day is coming, while the Minnesota Lynx refuse to establish themselves as a clear playoff team.

One will take a step toward the postseason tonight as the season begins to wind down. With Dallas seemingly on a hot streak and Minnesota rather not, can the handicap be as simple as trusting the Wings to keep flying?

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Wings vs the Lynx on August 22, with tip set for 8:00 ET.

Wings vs Lynx best odds

Wings vs Lynx picks and predictions

A certain yours truly had a Lynx handicap due on Sunday. Meanwhile, a sports-averse brother needed help moving a mattress into his second-floor guest bedroom.

A hunch said Minnesota could not sweep its season series against the Seattle Storm; that’s just too much of an ask for a middling team like the 2023 Lynx, even against a crew struggling as much as the 2023 Storm. So that handicap ended up on the Seattle moneyline.

Moving that mattress led to said brother offering up a free couch, one that would be a distinct upgrade over the old one in this living room. So the offer was accepted, which led to disassembling the top of a Jeep Wrangler, moving the new couch, pulling out the old couch, reassembling the Jeep, and cleaning the living room — if you give a mouse a cookie, he’s going to ask for a glass of milk.

All of this is meant to explain how I failed to put my cash where my writing was and never bet the Storm to upset the Lynx, which they then did... decisively.

To make matters worse, two successful Dallas handicaps last week created a trusty Wings trend to keep in mind, one that was applicable and successful on Sunday, only to be forgotten about due to this couch. Look, it’s an upgrade. It’s far more comfortable.

But opportunities were missed. Does either one apply tonight?

Dallas and Minnesota have played just twice thus far this season. The Wings cannot go for a season sweep until Thursday; yes, that’s right, they’ll play again on Thursday in Dallas.

However, the Wings are playing their third game in five nights. So are the Lynx, but lack of rest has been an especially crippling factor for Dallas this season. Just before the long break provided by the conclusion of the Commissioner’s Cup, the Wings had gone 1-5 against the spread and 2-4 straight up when playing on fewer than three days of rest since July 2. When rested, they had gone 8-1 ATS and 7-2 SU.

With a brief enough rest before that break, Dallas furthered those trends. Then the six-day break led to two games split by those distinctions, but the spirit of the trend would include them both as rested games. A six-day break buoys the legs beyond one game. Grant that stretch and then Dallas is 11-1 ATS and 10-2 SU when rested since July 2.

Does a six-day break buoy the legs beyond two games? That may be a bit of a reach, especially when all three games are on the road.

For that matter, the Wings are 1-3-1 ATS when ending a streak of at least three games on every other night. As in, if Dallas played five games in nine nights, that fifth game counted toward this trend. Or three games in five nights, like in this instance. When the Wings see the end of a tiring stretch, it shows up on the court.

And that fatigue showing up on the court against an embarrassed Minnesota should be enough to spur the Lynx to a cover.

My best bet: Lynx +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Wings vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis

These two have not played in five weeks, but back on July 12, Dallas was just a 2.5-point favorite at Minnesota. Counterintuitively, the gap between the two has shrunk since then, despite this number opening at -6.5.

Up until July 12, the Wings had a net rating of +3.6 while the Lynx had a net rating of -7.3, a difference of 10.9 points. Since July 12, that difference has fallen to 8.9. There was no rest advantage for either team that day.

So, frankly, this game being at the same venue but the spread being four points larger defies logic.

Betting every Over for these two teams would have yielded a profit this season, Minnesota hitting the Over in 17 of its 32 games and Dallas doing so in 18 of its 32. If that is not enough to push someone to assume the Over on this total of 169.5, then also know the Wings have gone Over their totals in six straight games.

Wings vs Lynx betting trend to know

Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three games following an ATS loss, a stretch dating back to just July 26. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Lynx.

Wings vs Lynx game info

Wings vs Lynx key injuries

Wings: Diamond DeShields G (Out), Odyssey Sims G (Questionable), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out).
Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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