The Las Vegas Aces are one win away from a trip to the WNBA Finals. The Indiana Fever are trying to push it to a winner-take-all Game 5. Those are the stakes Sunday as the Aces seek their fourth trip to the Finals in the last six years.
My Aces vs. Fever predictions and WNBA picks for September 28 will target the Under, which has been a productive side in this head-to-head.
Aces vs Fever predictions
My Aces vs Fever best bet: Under 159 (-110 at bet365)
The Las Vegas Aces sport the third-best scoring defense in the playoffs, and they might have put in their best work in the clutch in Game 3’s 84-72 victory.
Nursing a 56-53 lead with a quarter to play, the Aces allowed just three free-throw makes for almost eight full minutes before Lexie Hull’s basket with 2:25 left to play.
That bucket only got the Indiana Fever to within 10 points, and the Aces were able to salt the game away.
By the end, Indiana was held to just 35.6% shooting from the field and 30.4% from 3-point range.
Even when Indiana shot it well in Game 2, Vegas found another way to take control, turning the Fever over 22 times, converting those to a whopping 28 points in a 90-68 win.
This defensive work has helped keep the games to the Under, which has now hit in every game this series and in the last nine head-to-heads between these teams.
This will be the first time the total has dropped into the 150’s point range in the last 11, but the teams have gone Under 159 points in each of the last two.
Aces vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 159
Jackie Young Over 16.5 points
Kelsey Mitchell Under 20.5 points
It hasn’t been the best series for freshly-minted MVP A’ja Wilson, who has been held to 16 points or less in two games this series while shooting a rough 12-for-42 (28.6%).
Fortunately, Jackie Young has been a super sidekick.
Young dropped a playoff-high 25 points in Game 3, and has a generous 16.5 scoring line Sunday. It’s a figure she’s topped in four of six games these playoffs, including twice in this series.
With Caitlin Clark a no-go for these playoffs, the Aces have harassed Kelsey Mitchell, especially in the last two games, limiting her to 12-for-40 shooting from the field, a paltry 30% clip, including a rough 4-for-17 from 3-point range (23.5%).
She barely topped the Over in Game 3, and Vegas held her to a playoff-low 13 points in Game 2.
Aces vs Fever odds
Aces vs Fever live odds
Aces vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -4.5 | Indiana +4.5
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -196 | Indiana +158
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
Aces vs Fever trend
Las Vegas has just two losses in its last 22 games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Fever
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, September 28, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Aces vs Fever latest injuries
Aces: None.
Fever: C. Bibby (Out), C. Clark (Out), S. Cunningham (Out), S. Colson (Out), A. McDonald (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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