The Las Vegas Aces have dominated the Indiana Fever and seek a season series sweep when the two meet Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
The books expect tonight’s clash to be a high-scoring affair, but their last two meetings have fallen well short of the oddsmaker’s expectations, and my Aces vs. Fever predictions call for that trend to continue.
Find out why in my WNBA picks for September 13.
Aces vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Under 178 (-110 at BetRivers)
My analysis
The Las Vegas Aces are the only WNBA team the Indiana Fever haven’t beaten this season.
None of their other three matchups have been particularly close, and that’s because Vegas seems to play better defense against the Fever than they do against anyone else.
Indiana hasn’t scored 81+ points in any of their three meetings, which is well below its 84.4 season average, and far below its 90.7 post All-Star break average.
That’s a wild number because the Aces aren’t a great defensive team, but they are a matchup nightmare for the Fever. Vegas boasts veteran guards who play aggressive, physical defense, and that causes all sorts of problems for Fever guard Caitlin Clark.
Stopping Clark is the key — she hasn’t scored 16+ points in any of their previous three because the Aces have held her to 28% shooting from the field and 18% from the downtown. The Aces guards don’t allow her to get any shot off easily, and that’s a big problem for Indiana.
The other reason the Fever finds it so difficult to beat the Aces, and why I’m playing the Under tonight, is pace. Vegas plays the second-fastest tempo in the WNBA, but its matchups with Indiana have been three of the slowest games either side has played all season.
The Under is 2-1-0 to the Under in their three meetings for a reason; the Vegas guards lock Clark down, and they don’t give her or the Fever any pace. I expect the Aces to deploy that same strategy tonight, and this game ends Under the number.
Caitlin Clark pick: Firing blanks
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Under 21.5 points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
We don’t bet that many “Under” wagers on Clark’s scoring props because she’s been a tough cover for the other 10 WNBA teams, but we do bet the Under when she meets the Aces.
Imagine holding Clark to 28% shooting from the field and 18% from beyond the arc. That’s what the Aces have accomplished this season against a career 42% shooter knocking down 34% of her triple attempts, because taking away the pace and getting physical is kryptonite for Clark.
Las Vegas meets Clark right at center court, and she’s never given an inch. Aces guards Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young are tremendous one-on-one defenders; they don’t allow the Fever guard a clean look from anywhere and the rare times when they do, the Vegas switch defense has an unexpected hand or two disrupting her shot.
Look for Clark’s frustrations against Vegas to continue, and she stays Under her scoring prop number tonight.
Aces vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 178
Caitlin Clark Under 21.5 points
Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 points
The Indiana Fever allows nearly 50 points per night to the guard position, and that should open the door for Aces guard Kelsey Plum to walk through and have a big scoring night.
Plum is coming off a tough scoring night (9) but only played 24 minutes. She shot 43% from the field and 40% from downtown Wednesday night, but coach Becky Hammon decided to rest Plum a bit more than usual.
That likely won’t be the case tonight, as she’ll get her minutes, and the Fever stop unit will struggle to defend her. Before Wednesday’s stinker, she notched 56 points in their two previous games with the Fever, and I expect her to have a bounce-back night and clear her scoring prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Fever odds
Aces vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Aces vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas –4.5 (-115) | Indiana +4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas (-225) | Indiana (+185)
- Over/Under: Over 176.5 (-110) | Under 176.5 (-110)
Aces vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- Las Vegas opened as low as –4.5 (-115) and bettors quickly realized the Aces are 3-0 and have beaten the Fever by 5+ in their last three games this season.
- Indiana is 1-4-0 ATS across its last five and has lost to Las Vegas by at least 11+ in all three meetings this season.
- Under is 8-2 in the Aces’ last 10 road games and 3-2-0 to the Under across their last five with the Fever.
Aces vs Fever trend
The Under is 8-2-0 in the Fever’s last 10 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Fever.
Aces vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
Aces vs Fever latest injuries
Aces: None.
Fever: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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