The newly minted USFL will give us some spring football, and this time they're backed with some deep pockets and media sponsorships.
We aren't sure it will increase the quality of play on the field, but the USFL has a great chance to get through its first season and the New Jersey Generals and Birmingham Stallions will kick things off in style Saturday night in Alabama.
Can the Generals overcome a season-ending injury to their No. 1 QB? Can Skip Holtz impress in his first professional coaching gig?
Find out in our free USFL picks and predictions for Generals vs. Stallions.
Generals vs Stallions odds
| New Jersey Generals | Birmingham Stallions | |
|---|---|---|
| +3 (-110) | Spread | -3 (-110) |
| +145 | Moneyline | -165 |
| Over 42.5 (-110) | Total | Under 42.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 13, 2022.
This line opened at -2.5 and although some 2.5s are still available, the consensus has settled at the 3. With this being the first game of the season/league, books aren't entirely sure how to price this. In the first week of the 2020 XFL season, all four games had a closing total of at least 51.5 but those numbers fell dramatically by Week 3, and totals below 40 were common for the following weeks.
Generals vs Stallions predictions
Predictions made on 4/15/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Generals vs Stallions game info
• Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
• Date: Sunday, April 16, 2022
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX, NBC
Generals at Stallions betting preview
Weather
Scattered showers are in the forecast for Saturday night with temperatures expected in the low-70s.
Key injuries
Generals: Ben Holmes QB (Out), Garrett McGhin OL (Questionable), Mike Weber RB (Probable).
Stallions: O'Shea Dugas OL (Out), Jordan Chunn RB (Questionable).
Generals vs Stallions picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
It's a new sping league with a new set of rules played by teams who just drafted their players 30 days ago. However, that won't stop us from trying to find an edge and decide which end of this 3-point line we want in the USFL's opening game Saturday night in Alabama.
The books aren't high on either team heading into the season. Both the Stallions and Generals come into the season with +750 odds to win it all, meaning the oddsmakers expect these two clubs to finish in or near the bottom of their divisions.
The Birmingham Stallions will play in front of the hometown crowd at Protective Stadium Saturday night. They're being led by Skip Holtz, who's wearing many hats in head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback coach. Holtz will be making his professional football coaching debut Saturday after an extensive collegiate coaching career.
But just because he had success with student-athletes, doesn't guarantee him anything in the USFL.
Holtz will rely on QB Alex McGough who completed over 60 percent of his passes at Florida International but also threw 37 interceptions to just 65 TDs at the Conference USA school. His best offensive weapon is 5-foot-8 receiver Victor Bolden who has an elusive skillset and NFL experience. The lack of familiarity between McGough and his HC/OC is a little concerning, especially with just four weeks to implement a system.
The biggest reason this line moved off 2.5 and hit 3 is likely because of the QB situation for the Generals. New Jersey drafted QB Ben Holmes with its fourth-overall pick, but the signal-caller injured himself during practice and has subsequently been released. The Generals still have some talent at the QB position with dual-threat De'Andre Johnson and Luis Perez, so there is no need to panic for Jersey fans.
Johnson has the skills that many signal-callers in these leagues don't have as the quarterback has a 4.30 40-yard time, while Perez was drafted as a starting QB in the 2020 XFL draft and was the best QB not drafted back in March. The real reason we think the Generals can overcome the early QB injury and still play competitively Saturday is due to head coach Mike Riley and his experience with QBs.
Riley comes into this 10-week season as one of the more experienced HCs in the league. He spent two seasons as the Chargers' HC and won two Grey Cups in the CFL. He has over 40 years of coaching experience, was a former QB at Alabama, and coached in the 2020 XFL. Every time you read something about him, his strength in communicating with quarterbacks always comes up.
His offensive numbers weren't great for the Seattle Dragons (17.4 points per game and a run-first tendency), but with former Ohio State running back Mike Weber (third RB off the board) and Johnson's wheels, Riley could easily find some success on the ground and keep his green QB's in safer positions.
The New Jersey defense is also something the home side should worry about. Linebacker Chris Orr earned second-team All-Big Ten recognition while cornerback De'Vante Bausby could make things difficult for the Birmingham passing game after the DB had four interceptions in the AFF's one short season.
The Stallions are a solid team defensively as well with All-American linebacker Scooby Wright, but we're not reading too much into the preseason injury to Holmes as Riley is more than capable of implementing a simple yet effective offensive system with the pieces that he has.
In the first game of the USFL, it should be no surprise that we're taking the points especially when both teams enter the season with the same outright odds, and we doubt the home crowd is worth more than a point.
Prediction: Generals +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
If you came out firing Unders during the opening of the 2020 XFL season, you were banking cash until COVID shut things down. The average total in Week 1 was 51.5, 49.5 in Week 2, and 43.5 in Week 3.
The Under went a cool 8-4 across those 12 games and showed us that the books had pegged the totals incorrectly and were slow to fix them. We aren't getting big totals in Week 1 in the USFL, but these totals could look like a steal if the on-field performance emulates that of the XFL.
What we know about this New Jersey offense is that it will likely run the ball. As the HC for the AAF's San Antonio Commanders, Riley ran the ball at a 53% clip, and then as the OC for the XFL's Seattle Dragons, he ran the ball at 49% of the time despite trailing often as his 1-4 SU record indicates.
With new QBs in the system as well, the playbook won't be extensive, and running back Mike Weber could see a lot of action if he's healthy after being limited in practice this week.
Speaking of injuries, both teams could be missing some starting offensive linemen. Birmingham could be without tackle O'Shea Dugas who was the team's second drafted linemen as he was a DNP this week at practice. He is considered questionable heading into Saturday's game. The Stallions apparently only have eight OL on the roster so his loss would be huge as he also has experience playing under coach Holtz at Louisiana Tech.
New Jersey's No. 2 tackle Calvin Ashley was a DNP early in the week but returned to limited sessions late in the week. With the USFL only having 38 active players on game day, any in-game injury to either offensive line would benefit the Under as playing behind the sticks is almost a guaranteed punt.
Looking at other rule differences, the USFL's pass interference rules also favor the Under. Any defensive PI beyond 15 yards will be just a 15-yard penalty, so don't expect bad offenses to get bailed out by deep PI calls. The extra-point rules may seem interesting, but we doubt we see teams go for two or even three points out of the gates.
Looking at Birmingham's offense, McGough projects more of a safe system QB than one with great arm talent. He completed over 60% of his collegiate passes but is an average QB in this league who also doesn't offer any ability to extend plays and create with his legs. The lack of familiarity between him and his coach also has us preferring the Under, while Holtz might even give some snaps to his backup QB J'Mar Smith, who played with Holtz at Louisiana Tech.
Making things even more difficult for the Over, is the weather. The local forecast is calling for scattered showers during the game. If that forecast holds, we could see the public start to hammer this Under on Saturday.
In a game that features the two teams with the longest odds to win the league, we can't picture either offense stacking points Saturday night. New Jersey could be running a two-QB, run-first system, and we're high on both defenses that have some brand-name talent at linebacker.
Prediction: Under 42.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This seems like a game that could easily finish 20-10 and be one of those moments where you just cuss yourself for not taking the lay-up Under. The new rule changes don't do much to put points on the board and with just four weeks of prep, we doubt either offense is going to come out and complete 20-yard gains.
Riley has a track record of running the ball and with the injury to his starting QB, the Generals could be even more run-heavy.
Holtz is known as a pass-first guy but in his first game as a professional coach lacking a big-armed QB, he might not have the tools to pass the ball 35 times. The injury to Dugas the offensive tackle is also concerning from a point perspective.
As we saw in the XFL, if you don't have a QB like Jordan Ta'amu, it's tough to sustain long drives in these leagues. Add in some possible rain and we're more than happy to hit the Under 42.5 here.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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