The UFL Conference Championships are finally here after three weeks of knowing who would be playing in these two games.
We have a rematch of last season’s USFL Conference Championship game between the Michigan Panthers and Birmingham Stallions. Meanwhile, the losers of the previous season’s XFL Conference Championship game, the St. Louis Battlehawks, will take on a newcomer to this game, the DC Defenders.
Play gets underway in the USFL Conference Championship on Sunday afternoon in Birmingham, AL, and concludes on Sunday evening with the XFL Conference Championship in St. Louis, MO.
Check out my UFL picks and predictions for the Conference Championship games.
UFL picks for the Conference Championship Games
- Stallions -1.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
- Over 47.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 6-6.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
United Football League predictions and odds for the Conference Championship Games
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Michigan Panthers vs Birmingham Stallions
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ABC
| Panthers | Stallions | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.5 (-115) | Spread | -1.5 (-105) |
| +100 | Moneyline | -120 |
| Over 46.5 (-110) | Total | Under 46.5 (-110) |
Last season, the Birmingham Stallions won this game with relative ease, 31-18, on their way to an inaugural UFL Championship and a third straight championship in spring football. That completed a season sweep of the Panthers and they will be looking to do the same here after winning both regular season matchups again.
However, we have yet to see the current version of these two teams play each other with the starting quarterbacks we will see on Sunday. Bryce Perkins played in the first matchup this season but was injured for the second. J’Mar Smith played in the second but was not even on the roster for the first matchup.
While Perkins has missed three straight games and has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury, I will be shocked if he is not playing in the first snap on Sunday. The All-UFL quarterback and likely league MVP has been Lamar Jackson-like all season and probably could have played the last two weeks if he was needed for playoff positioning. Instead, he was held out to maximize his healing efforts before this game.
Now, rust may be an issue as well as the strength of the Stallions defense. Perkins was held to only 132 yards passing and 30 yards rushing in the last matchup with Birmingham, and he was also picked off. However, the man that picked him off is likely going to be out this game for the Stallions.
On the other end, Smith has been an incredible story for the Stallions at quarterback. He was the starting quarterback for the Stallions 2022 USFL championship but left the team – and football altogether – before this season after falling to third on the depth chart. After multiple injuries to the quarterback room for Birmingham, he returned as the starter in Week 7.
Smith has thrown for 759 yards with six touchdowns and only one interception in his four games. He also ran for 86 yards and a touchdown. The team averaged 33.3 points per game over those four weeks. That combined with their strong defense brought back the old Stallions dominance we saw each of the past three seasons.
Smith and a healthy Perkins will certainly be a spectacle to see. However, the Stallions are just the better team and have the complete mental edge having never lost this matchup in two seasons. We are getting great odds here thanks to the success of Perkins and the Stallions being down to their fourth quarterback, but Smith has proven to be much better than that.
Pick: Stallions -1.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
D.C. Defenders vs St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, 6:00 p.m. ET, FOX
| Defenders | Battlehawks | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (-105) | Spread | -2.5 (-115) |
| +124 | Moneyline | -148 |
| Over 46.5 (-115) | Total | Under 46.5 (-105) |
Last season, the Battlehawks were upset at home in the XFL Conference Championship 25-15 by the San Antonio Brahmas. This year, they are hosting again as favorites but against the Defenders. DC upset the Battlehawks in St. Louis back in Week 3, 27-15. They met again last week in a 13-8 slugfest won by the Battlehawks with several backups playing for both teams.
By not playing hardly any starters the past couple weeks, we are going to see both teams at full strength – minus guys out for the season from earlier in the year. That includes Manny Wilkens who played in the Week 3 matchup but has since been injured for the year. Max Duggan has been solid in his absence but has not played DC yet.
The big difference maker for the Battlehawks is running back Jacob Saylors, who made the All-UFL team with 499 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this year. He helped the Battlehawks finish with the best rushing offense in the UFL in both yards and touchdowns. This will be huge against a DC defense that ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed and seventh in rushing touchdowns allowed.
On the other side, Jordan Ta’amu is the other MVP candidate along with Perkins. He threw for 2,155 yards and 17 touchdowns with only four interceptions this season in eight and a half games. He also had 178 yards on the ground with two more touchdowns. No other quarterback in the league even had 10 passing touchdowns.
Ta’amu threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns against the Battlehawks back in Week 3, but he did throw two of his four picks in that one game. The other big star offensively for the Defenders is receiver Chris Rowland. He was All-UFL at both receiver and return man.
Rowland finished second in the UFL in receiving yards, third in receptions, and seventh in receiving touchdowns. He also averaged 21.9 yards per return in kick returns and 10.4 in punt returns. He did not have a big receiving game against the Battlehawks in Week 3, but he did continuously give them great field position in the return game.
I believe we are going to see the best of both offenses we have seen all season this weekend. While both games this season went Under the total, we have yet to see this version of each team play each other. This should be a close game that will be back and forth throughout, and the offenses are just too good to bet against.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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