Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are facing off on the main card of UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29.
Ferguson used to be one of the biggest names in the sport, and though he's on a five-fight losing streak, he still brings the action. Green never approached the career highs of Ferguson but is the better fighter at this point of their respective careers, with UFC betting odds installing him as a massive -400 favorite for this clash.
Here are my best Ferguson vs. Green free picks and predictions for UFC 291, from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.
Ferguson vs Green fight odds
Ferguson vs Green method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Tony Ferguson | Bobby Green |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,100 | +195 |
| To win by points | +600 | +125 |
| To win by submission | +1,100 | +100 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 26, 2023.
Ferguson vs Green picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best UFC bonuses
If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Gaethje to win by KO/TKO/DQ at UFC 291 BOOSTED to +250 at Caesars! Bet Now
B) Get a 20% profit boost on any UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Ferguson vs Green betting preview
Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson is on a five-fight losing streak, most recently getting submitted by fellow over-the-hill MMA icon Nate Diaz last September.
That bout took place at welterweight but Ferguson is back down to lightweight, the division in which he was near the top for many years. "El Cucuy" won 12 consecutive fights from 2013 to 2019, racking up nine finishes during that span.
Ferguson used to be one of the most entertaining fighters in the promotion, combining unpredictable striking with incredible pace and high-level submissions. Now at 39 years old, he has lost some of his quickness while his once legendary durability has deteriorated.
Bobby Green is coming off a fight against Jared Gordon in April during which an accidental clash of heads resulted in a no-contest. Prior to that bout, Green had lost four of his previous six fights and was fresh off knockout defeats against Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev.
Green has been competing in the UFC since 2013, compiling a 10-9-1 record in the octagon. The 36-year-old is a high-volume striker with clean boxing and solid defensive wrestling. He lands an average of 5.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.67.
Ferguson vs Green tale of the tape
| Tony Ferguson | Bobby Green | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 36 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 76.5 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 26-8 | Record | 29-14-1 |
Ferguson vs Green UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Bobby Green
Ferguson is a legend but he's clearly well over the hill at this point in his career. He's on an ugly losing streak, and though many of those lopsided defeats came against the cream of the crop in the lightweight division, getting submitted by a washed Diaz isn't a great look.
In addition, the fact that he recently got in a car crash while driving under the influence and claims that he's still in his prime, has me seriously doubting his mentality entering this matchup.
That said, it's worth mentioning that Ferguson faced Diaz on late notice after being booked to face Li Jingliang until just the day before. He also went up to 170 pounds for that clash, and the bout was competitive until the fourth round. He also looked good in the first round against Michael Chandler last May, before a front kick in the second round sent him to the shadow realm.
Green is also on the decline as his recent record shows, but his hands remain quick and he still does a good job of pushing the pace and landing more volume than his opponents. I expect Green to win this one, but I'm not going anywhere near the moneyline price given that Ferguson still has the ability to steal a round or two.
Prediction: Green ML (-380 at DraftKings)
Fight best bet: Bobby Green to win by decision
It's fair to question just how shot Ferguson's chin is after eating so much damage in his career. However, Green doesn't have much power with just one knockout and a pair of knockdowns in his last 18 fights going all the way back to 2013.
Though Ferguson was finished by Diaz, that came by way of submission and didn't happen until the fourth round. He was also tough enough to go the distance against Charlies Oliveira and Beneil Dariush despite being in some awful positions on the mat.
Sure, he got caught by Chandler, but despite these lopsided odds, don't be surprised if he goes the distance against a fighter like Green. With seven of Green's last eight wins coming by way of decision, back that method to win prop at plus money.
Pick: Green to win by decision (+130 at bet365)
